World Trade June 2017 Nowcast: 127.3 (+8.3% YOY)

gKNi
gKNi
Jul 21, 2017 · 3 min read

The gKNi World Trade Indicator (gKNi WTI) is owned and operated by LogIndex AG — a company of Kuehne + Nagel Group — and stood at 127.3 at the end of June, significantly higher compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, this amounts to +8.4% year-on-year. This reading is slightly above last month’s annual rate change of +7.5% .

Seasonally adjusted, the gKNi World Trade Indicator was up 1.3% month-on-month (1.6 in level terms). Over the past three months, the gKNi Indicator has advanced 2.2%.

The gKNi WTI is part of a family of country and sector specific nowcasts that leverage one of the largest logistics and supply chain data-sets available. LogIndex is part of the Kuehne + Nagel Group — world’s leading seafreight provider, number two air cargo forwarder, number two global contract logistics provider, and European top 3 overland provider.

World Trade Indicator at the end of June 2017, seasonally adjusted (SA): 127.3 points, Jan 2010 = 100 points. — WTO export and import data at the end of May 2017 (NSA); and Moving Average 3Month (SA), Jan 2010 = 100 points.
Month-over-month changes of gKNi World Trade Indicator (SA) and WTO Exports & Imports (NSA)
gKNi WTI, the indicator of global trade
World Trade Indicator (gKNi WTI) seasonally adjusted (SA), Jan 2010 = 100 points

logindex.com
kuehne-nagel.com
medium/gkni
twitter.com/gkninet

Methodology of gKNi World Trade Indicator (gKNi WTI)

The gKNi World Trade Indicator operated by LogIndex AG provides a real-time assessment of global economic activity. Gauging the momentum right now, the gKNi WTI is an early indicator of official export and import data that are published about two months later. Given the close ties to international trade, the gKNi Indicators also provides signals for both financial and commodity markets. Seasonally adjusted and measured in nominal USD terms, the leading indicator is accessible for clients with a daily update on the gKNi platform. The biweekly gKNi WTI is publicly available and published on Friday.

Designed to anticipate turning points in economic activities, the gKNi World Trade Indicator is based on LogIndex’s real-time analytics of the largest national economies which account for 55% of international trade and 69.5% of GDP World. The gKNi Indicator combines proprietary Kuehne + Nagel real-time global shipment data across different transport modes with external sources, such as throughput of ports, daily customs data, as well as very detailed vessel and aircraft movements in real time.

The gKNi World Trade Indicator summarizes LogIndex’s seasonally adjusted export and import estimates of the most relevant trade partners. The nowcasts are weighted according to the share of merchandise trade of the selected countries. The latest update refers consistently to the recent full trading month. The gKNi Indicator is measured in nominal USD terms. In contrast to a pure volume metrics, the gKNi WTI is influenced by effects of price changes — products, taxes, tariffs, transport costs — and foreign exchange rates as well. Among others, the following techniques are used in the context of time series analyzes: Dynamic Factor Models (DFM), Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS), Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR), and KALMAN-filters.

gKNi

gKNi, operated by LogIndex AG, stands for “Global Kuehne + Nagel Indicators” and provides estimates for key economic figures based on Kuehne + Nagel’s insights into markets and data of global trade flows.

)

gKNi

Written by

gKNi

gKNi

gKNi

gKNi, operated by LogIndex AG, stands for “Global Kuehne + Nagel Indicators” and provides estimates for key economic figures based on Kuehne + Nagel’s insights into markets and data of global trade flows.

Welcome to a place where words matter. On Medium, smart voices and original ideas take center stage - with no ads in sight. Watch
Follow all the topics you care about, and we’ll deliver the best stories for you to your homepage and inbox. Explore
Get unlimited access to the best stories on Medium — and support writers while you’re at it. Just $5/month. Upgrade