World Trade May 2017 Nowcast: 124.8 (+7.3% YOY)
The gKNi World Trade Indicator (gKNi WTI) is owned and operated by LogIndex AG — a company of Kuehne + Nagel Group — and stood at 124.8 at the end of May, unchanged compared to the previous estimate. On an annual basis, this amounts to +7.3% year-on-year. This reading is slightly below last month’s annual rate change of +8.0% .
Seasonally adjusted, the gKNi World Trade Indicator was up 0.2% month-on-month (0.25 in level terms). Over the past three months, the gKNi Indicator has advanced 0.9%.
The gKNi WTI is part of a family of country and sector specific nowcasts that leverage one of the largest logistics and supply chain data-sets available. LogIndex is part of the Kuehne + Nagel Group — world’s leading seafreight provider, number two air cargo forwarder, number two global contract logistics provider, and European top 3 overland provider.
Methodology of gKNi World Trade Indicator (gKNi WTI)
The gKNi World Trade Indicator operated by LogIndex AG provides a real-time assessment of global economic activity. Gauging the momentum right now, the gKNi WTI is an early indicator of official export and import data that are published about two months later. Given the close ties to international trade, the gKNi Indicators also provides signals for both financial and commodity markets. Seasonally adjusted and measured in nominal USD terms, the leading indicator is accessible for clients with a daily update on the gKNi platform. The biweekly gKNi WTI is publicly available and published on Friday.
Designed to anticipate turning points in economic activities, the gKNi World Trade Indicator is based on LogIndex’s real-time analytics of the largest national economies which account for 55% of international trade and 69.5% of GDP World. The gKNi Indicator combines proprietary Kuehne + Nagel real-time global shipment data across different transport modes with external sources, such as throughput of ports, daily customs data, as well as very detailed vessel and aircraft movements in real time.
The gKNi World Trade Indicator summarizes LogIndex’s seasonally adjusted export and import estimates of the most relevant trade partners. The nowcasts are weighted according to the share of merchandise trade of the selected countries. The latest update refers consistently to the recent full trading month. The gKNi Indicator is measured in nominal USD terms. In contrast to a pure volume metrics, the gKNi WTI is influenced by effects of price changes — products, taxes, tariffs, transport costs — and foreign exchange rates as well. Among others, the following techniques are used in the context of time series analyzes: Dynamic Factor Models (DFM), Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS), and KALMAN-filters.