Kim Han-Sol & The Future of North Korea
It’s often the case that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) tends to writes itself as a movie script through its fantastical and down-right frightening tales of life inside the world’s most secretive state. However, within the confines of the Northern state, lies the story of Kim Han-Sol, nephew of Kim Jong-Un.
Who is Kim Han-Sol?
Born in Pyongyang in 1995, the young man spent most of his life outside of North Korea despite sharing blood-line to North Korean royalty. However, much like his late father, Kim Jong-nam, Kim Han-Sol is softly critical of the current dictatorship. In 2017, after the assassination of his father in Malaysia, Kim and his mother (with the help of a dutch ambassador) to refuge to a location in Europe with his whereabouts kept a tight secret for security reasons.
Most interestingly, in a 2012 interview with a Finnish Radio station, the young Kim expressed his aspiration to return back to the North someday in order to improve relations between North and the rest of the world.
“I’ve always dreamed that one day I would go back and… makes things better and make it easier for the people there.”
This may place an openly critical Kim Han-Sol as an apostate in the eyes of the dictator and put him in great danger, as did with his father.
Breaking Barriers
For many, Kim Han-Sol serves as the antithesis of the image of North Koreans. Softly spoken, gentle, well-mannered, and handsome. He has often advocated peace and friendly relations, which many important figures in North Korea, including the children of the elite have also called for (as seen in BBC’s Chris Rogers’s ‘Educating North Korea’ documentary).
It is important to understand that within the totalitarian regime are humans, and the process of understanding and humanising the citizens/victims of North Korea through cultural exchange will be a good step towards improving relations between those in positions of authority. Kim Han-Sol is just one boy of millions of other North Koreans who are desperate for change. However, as the Korean War approaches its 70th anniversary, the idea of ‘change’ has carried conditional weight. On top of this, positive steps towards peace was not satisfied by parties, which has perpetuated ad infinitum. Diplomatically speaking, the UNSC may have to be forced to accept that for peace to return, concessions in the form of quietly recognising a new Nuclear state may have to be made. But with new economic sanctions being levied on the North, it is safe to assume that this won’t happen any time soon.
The idea of Kim Han-Sol someday returning back to North Korea and saving his nation is a romantic idea. But is it truly realistic?
Be Prepared: The Many Futures of North Korea
Tensions with with the North and the rest of the world became strained after the North’s Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile test, and the US President Donald Trump’s subsequent war of words. To many North Korea watchers, it can be noted that the North views its nuclear programme as a contributor to global security and its purpose primarily serves as a deterrent towards ‘US Imperialism’. However, with the unstable nature of the Kim hierachy, the United Nations Security Council thinks otherwise with China being the latest significant nation to levy sanctions against the rogue state.
China serves as the North Korea’s closest ally, and a largely dependent on it for trade. However, this latest move as proved that China’s patience for the North is quickly running out. Given the geopolitical 4D-Chess that we are now in, many have pondered, what will this mean for the future of North Korea? I see three main futures, some of which may seem more closer to fan-fiction.
- The Miracle of PyeongChang
- The Collapse of the Kim Regime
- Nothing happens, tensions continue
For the first scenario, the South buys into the North’s efforts to build bridges as genuine. Iniatially, this is met with disapproval by the US. However, the US’s position soon changes when the North takes signifcant steps to halt its nuclear programme. A historic summit in Pyongyang is held for president Moon Jae-in, which leads to limited free movement being eventually agreed between the Koreas. However some distance is still kept from the North’s propaganda machine. Kim Jong-un passes away, and a successor is installed. This is where scenario two can come in.
In the second scenario, assuming everything in the first didn’t happen, a rift in the regime causes several high figures to be assassinated. The military stages a coup in the North, and a US-China-Russia alerted by nuclear devastation unanimously agree to leverage a trilateral military solution to secure all nuclear stockpiles in the North. The North is annexed by China as ‘Choseon’, the US remain on South Korea, the DMZ is relaxed and eventually removed. Reunification is all but a distant idea, however the condition of North Koreans.
The third scenario is the most likely of the previous two. For 70 years, the Korean War has presisted with little progress for peace. The Korean people have even lost the appetite for reunifcation as successive generations have grown within two different countries. As with most things, nothing lasts forever, but don’t expect the war to end anytime soon.
