GOin Market Watch #8, insights for digital assets investors.

Every Week, GOin gives the keys to understand trends in the Crypto Market to investors.

GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW

Period from March 18th 2018 to March 17th 2019 — GMT close in USD

Over the past week, global market capitalization has increased from USD 134.1 bn as of March 10th to USD 138.8 bn as of March 17th. The increase has mainly been generated on March 15th (+1.6%) and March 16th (+2.4%).

Traded volumes have undergone a slight decrease as weekly traded volumes have gone from USD 220.6 bn as of March 10th to USD 212.9 as of March 17th. Still, they have remained well above the USD 115.5 bn annual average.

In the news:

  • IBM launches Blockchain World Wire, a Stellar-based cross-border payment solution
  • NASDAQ has added Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX) to its Global Index Data Service

1-year evolution of global market capitalization

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin

Global market capitalization has decreased by 55.3% over the past year

Over the past week, global market capitalization has increased by 3.5%:

  • ETH, BTC and XRP have all underperformed with +2.5%, +1.9% and +1.4% increases respectively
  • BTC share in global market capitalization has gone back to its lowest level in 2019 (51%)

1-year evolution of global traded volumes

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin

7-day traded volumes have more than doubled over the past year, from USD 100.7 bn as of March 18th, 2018 to USD 212.9 bn as of March 17th, 2019

Over the past week, global traded volumes have decreased by 3.5%:

  • ETH and BTC have both outperformed with a -2.1% and -2.5% decrease respectively
  • XRP traded volumes have decreased by 5.1%

1-year evolution of 60-day volatility

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin

As of March 17th, 60-day market volatility stood at 47.4% compared to 125.1% one year ago

Since the beginning of the calendar year, decrease in volatility has been observed on all major crypto assets. As of March 17th, 2019:

  • BTC 60-day volatility has reached 39.6% — from 117.6% as of March 18th, 2018
  • ETH 60-day volatility has decreased to 73.7%, almost reaching its lowest level on the period (73.6%)
  • XRP 60-day volatility has reached its lowest level on the period (55.7%) for the third consecutive week

ZOOM ON TOP 50 SAMPLE

The Top 50 sample is determined every week according to the following methodology:

1) Ranking of crypto assets by market capitalization

2) Elimination of crypto assets that:

  • Have less than 3 months of trading history
  • Are stable coins
  • Are subject to publicly known issues — trading or storage failures, fraud suspicions, technical flaws in the underlying technologies

The complete list of currently eliminated crypto assets can be found here: https://www.goin-invest.com/index/fuseki/.

3) The remaining 50 largest market capitalizations are selected for analysis

7-day performance

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin
  • The week has been good for the top 50 sample with a 7.4% median performance and only 7 crypto assets with a negative performance
  • The week’s high average performance (10.3%) has been driven by the outstanding performance of CRO which has benefited from successive listings on Bittrex (March 7th) and Indodax (March 15th)
  • 3 of the previous week’s top performers, STEEM (+41.0% 7-day performance as of March 10th), ENJ (+141.4%) and THETA (41.6%), have experienced market corrections that have mitigated their 14-day performances (23.1% 14-day performance as of March 17th for STEEM, 106.6% for ENJ and -0.2% for THETA)

7-day traded volumes

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin
  • As for the global market, the top 50 sample has undergone a small decrease in weekly traded volumes : -2.1%
  • The decrease has been driven by the top 5, for which weekly traded volumes have decreased by 5.9% on average (from -2.1% for ETH to -11.4% for LTC)
  • Over the same period, the median value have increased by 2.6% as smaller crypto assets have seen their weekly traded volumes increase: +203.4% for SC, +29.9% for BCN
  • The top 5 still represents 59.4% of global traded volumes and 86.5% of traded volumes on the top 50 sample

Average daily traded volumes/market capitalizations

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin
  • Over the past week, the average ratio has slightly increased from 17.7% to 17.9% despite the global market capitalization increase (+3.5%) and the global decrease of traded volumes (-3.5%)
  • The increase has been driven by the rise of QTUM ratio, from 122.8% as of March 10th to 245.8% as of March 17th. This evolution has been caused by a 127.8% increase of QTUM average daily traded volumes when the coin’s market capitalization has only increased by 16.5% over the same period

7-day annualized volatility

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin

7-day annualized volatility has gone back to lower levels as:

  • Median 7-day volatility has decreased from 72.7% as of March 10th to 58.9% as of March 17th
  • Average 7-day volatility has decreased from 93.8% as of March 10th to 86.4% as of March 17th

As for the previous week, huge discrepancies could be observed between the less volatile crypto assets (18.2% 7-day volatility for XRP and 19.9% for BTC) and the more volatile (758.1% for CRO).

90-day correlation to BTC

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin

Correlation to BTC continues its downward trend:

  • Median 90-day correlation to BTC has decreased from 0.687 as of March 10th to 0.652 as of March 17th
  • Average 90-day correlation has decreased from 0.595 to 0.550 over the same period

Only 5 crypto assets have been negatively correlated to BTC; TRX has been the most negatively correlated to BTC (-0.411 coefficient)

Few changes in the most correlated to BTC crypto assets, the only move in the top 5 being OMG replacing DGB (0.783 coefficient)

ZOOM ON GOin’s INDICES

7-day performances

As of March 10th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin
  • All FUSEKI indices have outperformed the market (+3.5% in global market capitalization)
  • The FUSEKI WP and FUSEKI WPX have also both outperformed the top 50 sample (+7.4% median 7-day performance)
  • The FUSEKI and FUSEKI WL have been the least performing indices due to the lower weights of QTUM and XTZ and the higher weights of BTC and XRP
  • The FUSEKI WPX has been the most performing index thanks to the contribution of LSK

Constituents’ contributions to index performance

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

*March 11th, 2019- Source: GOin

Top upwards pulling:

  • QTUM. Outstanding 6-day performance as of March 17th (+20.8%) that had a huge impact on all FUSEKI indices, from +3.09 points for the FUSEKI to +6.28 points for the FUSEKI WP
  • DASH. Strong 6-day performance as of March 17th (+12.0%) that contributed to the FUSEKI indices performances, from +1.83 points for the FUSEKI to +3.56 points for the FUSEKI WPX
  • LSK. The coin has been the main contributor to the FUSEKI WPX performance thanks to its +20.3% 6-day performance as of March 17th

Downwards pulling:

  • On rebalance day. All index constituents — except for XLM — have performed negatively on March 11th — from -0.1% for XTZ to -3.6% for QTUM and TRX, and thus have negatively affected the FUSEKI indices performances on that day

7-day correlation of index constituents

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: GOin

7-day correlation to BTC has been relatively stable compared to the previously observed period as:

  • the median value has only increased from 0.73 over the previous week to 0.78 this week
  • the average value has remained the same at 0.73

Average 7-day correlation to DOGE has been the highest (0.83), while average 7-day correlation to QTUM have been the lowest (0.63)

Rebalancing

As of March 18th, 2019 — At rebalancing price

Source: GOin
  • Out: QTUM due to a volatility increase, XTZ as its volatility has remained stable when the market average has decreased
  • In: ETH due to volatility decrease, OMG due to both a volatility decrease and an increase of traded volumes

Average rotation rates

As of March 18th, 2019 — At rebalancing price

Source: GOin
  • Stable average weekly rotation rates over 1 year
  • FUSEKI WP and FUSEKI WPX weekly rotation rates are in line with their annual averages
  • FUSEKI and FUSEKI WL weekly rotation rates have been impacted by significant changes in constituents weighting

1-year performances compared to BTC and ETH

As of March 17th, 2019 — GMT close in USD

Source: www.coinmarketcap.com, GOin
  • BTC and ETH prices have decreased by 49.2% and 74.7% respectively over the past year
  • In the meantime, the FUSEKI indices have decreased by between 50.2% (FUSEKI WPX) and 60.4% (FUSEKI WL)
  • Over the past week, all FUSEKI indices have once again outperformed both BTC (+1.9% 7-day performance) and ETH (+2.4% 7-day performance) as they have increased by between 6.8% (FUSEKI) and 10.9% (FUSEKI WPX)
DISCLAIMER
This publication is for discussion and informational purpose only. No statement nor information presented in this document shall be considered an investment advice.
No statement nor information presented in this document shall be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security, or any other product or service, to any person in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the laws of such jurisdiction.
The data provided and calculation presented are for illustrational purpose only, and GOin shall not have any liability, contingent or otherwise, for the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correct sequencing of any information provided by GOin or for any decision or action taken by you in reliance upon such information. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GOin, a French SAS registered in Paris, France under French law owns a) all registered design, trademark, service mark rights and copyright; b) all intellectual property and any other rights and interests in this publication.
Crypto asset markets are young and highly volatile, which means crypto asset investments are particularly risky. Before investing in crypto assets, you need to be aware of and accept that you might be exposed to the following risks: a) market risk; b) risk of partial or total loss of capital; c) currency risk; d) liquidity risk; e) regulatory risk; f) technological risk; g) risk of theft or fraud; h) any other risk related to crypto asset investment.

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