Gold prediction for 2014
Big expectations can lead to weak hands
“You have to say that we are again in a massive financial bubble in bonds, in equities, in other asset prices that have gone up dramatically.”
Marc Faber
I used to be easily hypnotized by doom and gloom predictions about various assets and their future valuations. Especially predictions related to gold, where investors wait for the market to become free from manipulation for years, if not decades or one full century. Goldbugs have heard of $10 000 price targets more often than politicians tried to solve debt crisis with creating more debt.
Sure, based on the fundamentals and laws of physics, gold was destined to be 1000% higher this time, or any time previous year, including all 12 years of growth before year 2013.
Many predictions seem 100% accurate and logical. But market participants tend to forget that timing is the only thing nobody seem to accurately predict.
At the same time bitching about analysts predicting collapse and all the others who have been rightly predicting unavoidable consequences, even if their timing is off, doesn’t mean they’re wrong in their opinions. At least they’re trying to wake more people up.
Infinite rounds of money printing based on uncontrolled decisions of privately owned big banks changed markets into real world PokerStars environment. This understandably makes any analysis of future price dependent on ability to predict the wishful thinking of central banks.
That being said, conclusions about what arguments are more relevant for future gold price predictions are in the end determined by the size of market participants with best liquidity access from central banks. Not facts and “myths” about gold market fundamentals.
Sometimes you can be so far ahead of the curve with analyzing the numbers, that you actually end up so far behind reality. It always seems the markets have the ability to stay irrational longer than our accounts solvent.
All we can really do is try to guess the trigger event and wait. Only for the fun of guessing.
As in any “gold rush”, more millionaires are made selling picks than in finding the gold itself. Clever entrepreneurs know this, and know how to use it to their advantage. I mean analysts.
We all know it’s all going to collapse one day.
It has to collapse, because that’s what we humans always have to do.
The world has felt like it’s been on edge for many years. And I have the suspicion that the world will feel the same way again the same time next year. So do not wait that gold will rise in price like Bitcoin in 2014.
If numbers or predictions are about to kill millions, or change something, governments will just change the numbers by decree tomorrow morning.
So any stories about physical buying from China, higher premiums in Asia and fall in Comex warehouse gold reserves is better be taken as a piece of information. As a piece of puzzle not a trigger for direction in gold price.
You can’t replace wealth generation using debt, but using debt you can have numbers you like for very long time. Until all agree to believe in them.
Value{ation}|confusion is widespread and supported by media. Why do we live bitcoin mania? Why governments discuss Bitcoin and not Fukushima fallout?
People started to believe that we can create something out nothing but math. It shows that people are looking for an alternative money, and it just happens to be a freemarket currency. Or “freemarket” trap.
Can we expect Gold exponential price growth in 2014?
It is easy to see something coming and interpret it as imminent.
Then grow bored with the time passing. Become comfortable.
We have only to wait for a little while longer when the manipulation in gold stops. We hear this too often.
How long? Who knows.
Anyone with a calculator has been predicting economic collapse and valuation adjustment since 2008 .
It is a fool’s game to try to time the event of gold rise to the sun, but any thinking person with knowledge of the past 6,000 years of history needs to keep that history in mind.
The planet will keep spinning and the sun will rise tomorrow.
Get busy livin’ and hold physical.
Thank you for reading. Chartist
source: Offgridminds
