The Last Dog Has Been Hung. Joe Has Jumped The Shark. To Save America, He Has To Go
The Democrats believe that there aren’t enough bad/stupid/apathetic Americans for Trump to be elected. They are very wrong
By David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
Take Aways From The Recent Presidential Debate
The conspiracy theorists’ take on the recent Presidential Debate:
Someone associated with the Trump campaign slipped a mole into Joe Biden’s medical team and just before the debate commenced Biden was injected with a dose of Diazepam instead of the intended shot of Ritalin, leading to his Confused-Grandpa-After-A-Long-Thanksgiving-Dinner performance. Once the malefactor is identified and the President’s medicine cabinet is re-stocked with real Ritalin, all will be well.
For the rest of us, we have to admit that most voters feel that The Joe Biden Show has jumped the shark.
Everyone Still Alive Gets To The Point Where They Have To Retire
God love him, Tony Bennett still sounded pretty good into his 80s, but he was the very, very rare exception to the rule that time catches up with everyone.
The body ages. The mind ages. The better a professional you are, the more you have to be willing to some day admit that you can no longer perform at your former high level, maybe that you cannot competently perform at all.
It’s not your fault. Nature is against us, and the current state of medicine cannot prevent that.
Sadly, Some People Just Can’t Let Go
Ego is a dangerous thing. It’s common for professionals to keep trying to do it long after they no longer can.
How many once top-of-the-charts singers have continued to tour long after their voices have become cracked and thin? How many years past it was Neil Diamond still booking concerts?
People who used to be headliners want to believe that they’ve still got it, that they can still do it like they did ten or twenty years ago, long after they don’t and they can’t.
Jerry Seinfeld deliberately ended his long-running TV show when it was still good because he wanted to go out on top instead of on the bottom, because Seinfeld didn’t want to be one of those people who, in their desperation to keep on trucking, Jump The Shark.
And now there’s Joe Biden.
Biden Has Had An Impressive Career In Government
Personally, he’s a decent guy.
He’s a man who has done it all in government. He was a United States Senator for thirty-six years; Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee for eight years; Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations for two years; Vice President of the United States for eight years; President of the United States for four years; a senior official of the Government of the United States for fifty years through the end of the Vietnam War, the war in Kosovo and Serbia, both Gulf Wars, the mortgage meltdown, COVID, virtually every national and international disaster, war, and challenge facing the United States for the last 50 years.
But That Was Then
Today, a majority of voters believe that Biden can’t do it well enough any more.
Biden would disagree. In his mind, he’s still got it. Sure, he’ll say, “I may forget a word now and then, maybe lose my place sometimes, maybe need a few seconds to collect my thoughts, but I can still do the job.”
In Politics, What’s True Is What The Voters THINK Is True
It doesn’t matter what Joe Biden thinks about his abilities. It doesn’t even matter if he’s right, if he can actually still scrape by.
The only thing that matters is what the voters think. And a very large percentage of them think Joe Biden can’t do the job at a high enough level any more.
The End.
When picking someone to fill a position, it doesn’t matter what the candidate thinks of their abilities. That’s why racial, gender, ethnic, and religious discrimination are so damaging — because in the end it’s not about what is actually true.
It’s all about what the chooser, the decider, the voter believes is true.
Many Of The Pro-Biden Apathetic, Core Voters Will Not Show Up
Roughly 35% of the electorate are going to line up and turn out and vote for Trump no matter what, and another 35% are going to line up and turn out and vote against Trump no matter what.
This election is going to be decided by how many of the lazy, ignorant, stupid, inattentive, apathetic 30% in the middle show up and vote. Let’s call them the Squishy Middle.
I don’t mean that it will be decided by how they vote. No, I mean it will be decided by how many DON’T vote, by how many of them who would otherwise vote for Biden or Trump just don’t show up.
The problem for the Democrats is that a majority of that squishy middle, maybe 20%, are people who under normal circumstances would vote for Biden — students, blue-collar workers, Black and Hispanic urban voters, younger urban dwellers.
If you sent out the Army and herded every eligible voter to the polls and forced them to cast their ballots, Biden would win. Probably, because, if forced, maybe a third of that 30%, 10%, would vote for Trump and the other 20% would, reluctantly, vote for Biden.
How The Squishy Middle That Actually Shows Up Will Vote
2016 Popular Vote Gap Between Hillary And Trump
In 2016, Hillary got 48.2% of the popular vote and Trump got 46.2%. 48.2/94.4 = 51% of the Hillary + Trump votes for Hillary and 49% of the Hillary + Trump votes for Trump, and Trump won.
51% — 49% = 2% gap in Hillary’s favor and Trump won.
2020 Popular Vote Gap Between Biden And. Trump
In 2020 Biden got 51.3% of the popular vote and Trump got 46.86%. 51.3/98.16 = 52.3% of the Biden + Trump votes for Biden and 47.7% of the Biden + Trump votes for Trump, and Trump lost.
52.3% — 47.7% = 4.6% gap in Biden’s favor and Trump lost.
4.6% gap, Biden wins.
2% gap, Hillary loses.
4.6% + 2%/2 = 3.3
A 2024 gap of around 3.3% or less in Biden’s favor would likely put Trump in the White House.
A Comparison Of Popular Vote Percentages In 2016 v. 2020
In 2016 Trump got 49% of the Hillary + Trump votes and Trump Won.
In 2020 Trump got 47.7% of the Biden + Trump votes and Trump Lost.
49% + 47.7%/2 = 48.35
If the break down of electoral votes is similar in 2024 as it was in 2020 then if Trump gets about 48.35% or more of the total Biden + Trump votes, Trump will win.
Breakdown Of The Possible 2024 Squishy Middle Votes
So, of that Squishy Middle 10% who would vote for Trump, I think around 7% will actually show up and vote for Trump.
Of that Squishy Middle 20% who would vote for Biden, if only 10% show up then we have 35% + 7% = 42% for Trump and 35% + 10% = 45% for Biden.
42%/87% = about 48.3% for Trump and 51.7% for Biden
Given that in 2016 a 49% of the Hillary-Trump total for Trump resulted in a comfortable Trump win, a 48.3% share of the 2024 Biden-Trump total for Trump will probably mean a Trump win.
51.7% — 48.3% = a 2024 gap of about 3.4% which, considering that the gap in favor of Biden in 2020 was 4.6%, and taking into account the biases of the Electoral College, should be enough to put Trump back in the White House.
Why Don’t The Democrats Nominate Someone Else?
Why doesn’t Biden see this? Ego.
Why don’t the Democrat Party insiders see this and have a Come-To-Jesus meeting with Biden and tell him that in order to save the country he has to step down?
Maybe they have and he’s not listening.
The Democrats Blind Spot
Biden and the Democrat insiders have a HUGE blind spot, namely, their thorough and total hatred of Donald Trump.
They hate Trump so much, they KNOW that he is so TERRIBLE that they cannot conceive that any, ANY decent, half-way-normal American would choose to vote for him over the decent and honorable, Joe Biden.
They are like the guy who is in love with the Homecoming Queen and cannot imagine that she would pull up her skirt for the expelled, tattooed, dope-smoking guy on the motorcycle.
In Mr. Nice Guy’s mind it just isn’t possible that when faced with the choice between himself and the Bad Boy, Sally Sweetheart would choose to ride off into the sunset on the back of Nicky Evil’s Harley.
But she previously has and she will do it again. Blind spot.
When the jury convicts her son of raping and murdering a local prostitute the accused’s mom will continue to insist that the DNA was planted and that her little boy couldn’t have done it. She can’t see it, can’t even imagine it. Blind spot.
The Tragic Outcome
If the Democrats don’t find some way to quickly nominate a competent, energetic, middle-of-the-road candidate, a substantial portion of those 30% squishy voters in the middle who would normally show up and vote for Biden will stay home, and Donald Trump will be elected.
In that case this country will not survive what he will do to the courts and the Federal Justice system any more than Germany survived the Reichstag Fire.
The Democrats Are Wrong To Believe That Trump Can’t Win
Because of their blind spot the Democrat insiders just can’t believe that Trump could win.
But he can, and if Joe Biden remains the Democrat candidate, I think it is very likely that he will.
— David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
