Why I Think Trump Might Be Re-Elected
I Think The Polls Aren’t Showing Trump v. Biden. They’re Showing Trump v. Kamala Harris
By David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
Why Are Biden’s Poll Numbers So Bad?
I’ve been trying to make sense of Biden’s terrible poll numbers given the toxic nature of his opponent. Objectively, Biden has done at least a decent job.
Gaza
Sure the hard left is upset over Gaza, but do they actually believe that Trump would be harder on Israel than Biden? Better for Palestine than Biden? No, I doubt that very much.
The Economy
There’s been loose talk about “the economy” but the economy is and has been doing well under Biden. Yes, there is still inflation, but passing legislation that forces sellers to lower prices is something the Republicans never do.
Inflation
Most people know that the GOP is in big business’ pocket.
The Republicans are never going to allow legislation that lowers drug prices, restricts executive compensation, bans add-on fees, restricts de-facto cartels or any of the other actions that might reign in price increases.
Biden has been active in trying to raise wages and curtail fees, so I don’t see most people blaming him as primarily being responsible for higher prices. Mostly inflation was due to COVID, supply chain problems, the war in the Ukraine, and massive profit-taking by large corporations using the supply chain issues as an excuse to raise prices.
Yes, dumb people take the position that the President is responsible for everything. If tornadoes are up 20% this year then in their view it’s the President’s fault, but, again, that’s kind of a fringe idea for a fringe group of voters.
The Border
The border has long been Biden’s weak point, but at least he’s making some moves toward “border security” so I don’t see that as a firestorm against him. Some heat, yes, but nothing to justify his terrible poll numbers vis-a-vis Trump.
Where Trump’s Number Ought To Be
At this point Mr. Felon shouldn’t be polling more than maybe 40% — 43%. But he has much more. Why?
Biden’s Age
People talk about Biden’s age. Yes, he is old and frail and probably mentally declining, but that alone is not enough to justify these numbers. Partly, yes, entirely, no.
It’s The Combination Of Biden’s Age & Kamala Harris As VP
No, I think the BIG problem is Biden’s age combined with who will take over sometime in the next four years if/when Joe has a stroke, breaks his hip, or publicly loses a chunk of his mental abilities. Kamala Harris.
I think Joe’s poll numbers are partially Trump v. Biden numbers and partially Trump v. Kamala Harris poll numbers.
Kamala Harris is the shadow Democrat nominee for President, and she’s just not going to fly for a substantial segment of the American population. The following points are a reflection of the my take on Middle American voters’ biases and fears, not my personal values.
- Female — a problem for lots of people. She is no Margret Thatcher. Not by a long shot. A female candidate is hard enough to elect, but Kamala has no gravitas. Her gut impression is “lightweight.”
- Black — there are still a lot of racists out there.
- Progressive — Liberal is a dirty word to half the country.
Add together a Female, Black, Lightweight, Progressive Democrat candidate for President without any noticeable charisma and it’s a toxic cocktail for many, many voters.
I would like to see the polling for a
- a Biden-Harris v. Trump-Somebody race;
- a Biden-Newsom v. Trump-Somebody race;
- a Biden-Someone Else v. Trump-Somebody race and
- a Kamala Harris v Trump race.
Losing Kamala Harris Wins The Election
I am going to say right now that if Biden could somehow lose Kamala — a family emergency? a medical issue? — and install a new running mate without alienating the Black vote — Raphael Warnock? — I think that change would drastically tilt the election in his favor.
Or Amy Klobuchar. Or Gretchen Whitmer. Or Gavin Newsom.
I know that all the died-in-the-wool Democrats think that Kamala is just great. But Biden is going to get their votes anyway. It’s the votes of the non-loyal democrats, wishy-washy Republicans and so-called Independents that he needs to get and Kamala scares the hell out of them.
Who Will Not Vote For K. Harris For President
The wobbly Repubs, the conservatives-but-hate-Trump Repubs, the apathetic independents, dislike and/or fear Harris and, at best, will stay home and at worst will close their eyes and vote for Trump.
In their gut they see her as a lightweight, as a liberal, and as a black female. The Dems cannot change those opinions, certainly not in the next 5 months. I’m not saying they are right. I’m saying that’s how I think they see things.
My Reluctant Opinion
So, I’m saying right now that this election will be terrifyingly close and that Mr. Crazy very much could win. All it will take is enough closed polling places, enough disqualified voters, enough should-vote-for-Biden-but-will-stay-home voters, enough partisan election officials or judges, and we could see Trump lose by 5 million popular votes but be elected by 275 or so Electoral College votes.
I Warned My Friends About A Trump Victory In 2016
I expressed similar misgivings when Hillary was running against Mr. T. I told all my friends “I have a very bad feeling. I’m terribly afraid that Trump might win” and all my Democrat friends said, “Oh Dave, you silly goose,” but I was right. They stopped teasing me on the morning of November 9, 2016.
I was, sadly, correct then and I think I am correct now.
It’s Not A Certainty
I’m not saying that Biden absolutely won’t squeak it out, but I am saying that Trump winning is a frighteningly real possibility unless Biden somehow manages to replace Kamala Harris with someone thoroughly middle-of-the-road, competent, and an effective campaigner.
I’ve Got A Very Bad Feeling
This train is heading for an extremely rickety, condemned bridge. It could easily end up mirroring the final scenes in The Bridge On The River Kwai.
Scary to think about. Scary to watch and be unable to do anything about it.
— David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
