7 Reasons Why Kamala Harris Has A Very Good Chance Of Being Elected President
Biden’s withdrawal has caused a seismic shift in the course of the 2024 Presidential election — from Biden losing to Harris winning
By David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
I want to close the loop a bit on my previous comments about the 2024 Presidential race.
On January 4, 2024 I published a column that essentially said that Joe Biden will likely deliver the country to the disaster that is Donald Trump.
On June 13, 2024, before Biden’s disastrous public meltdown, I published a column that speculated that Biden’s poor polling might be because people thought he would die in office and then the relatively unknown Kamala Harris would become President.
Then, Biden was revealed as not having the mental acquity to qualify for another term as President. After that disaster, on July 1, 2024 I abandoned any idea that the Dem’s ticket would be stronger with Biden + someone else and said flat out that the problem wasn’t Harris. The problem was Joe Biden himself, and that he had to go.
On July 7, 2024 I published a column that said that if Joe Biden stayed in the race that he would deliver the country to the disaster that is Donald Trump and that because of the Roberts’ Presidential Immunity decision in Trump v. U.S., if elected Trump would be able to leverage the power of the Federal government to make himself President for Life.
Now that Biden has acknowledged that he has become a toxic candidate and has withdrawn from the race, it’s time to consider Kamala Harris’ chances of success.
The Negatives
As a female she will be the victim of mild to savage misogyny. There are still plenty of Americans, mostly male but some female, who will not accept a female as President.
As a Black person, she will be the victim of mild to savage racism. There are still plenty of Americans, mostly Republicans but also some Democrats, who will not accept a Black person as President.
As a Black female there are going to be a material number of people who would otherwise vote for a White, male Democrat who will stay home, or in some cases vote for Trump.
How Many Votes Will That Actually Cost The Dems?
The real questions are:
- (1) How many of these misogynist racists are going to switch from being willing to vote for a White male Democrat to instead voting for Trump? And
- (2) How many of these misogynist racists are going to switch from being willing to vote for a White, male Democrat to instead staying home and not voting for anyone?
Personally, I think that these racist/misogynist lost votes will be relatively small compared to the total vote count. I don’t think they will be large enough to, alone, change the outcome.
Comparing The 2020 Versus The 2024 Numbers
Let’s look at some numbers. In 2020 there were about 237,275,000 eligible voters, NOT registered voters. In November 2024 there will be about 244,000,000 eligible voters.
In 2020 about 66.8% of eligible voters, approximately 158,500,000, voted for a Presidential candidate.
About 3,000,000 votes were write-ins or for third-party candidates leaving about 155,500,000 votes split between Biden and Trump, with Biden getting roughly 81,283,000 and Trump getting around 74,223,000, about 52.3% for Biden and 47.7% for Trump.
In November 2024 there will be about 244M eligible voters. Expect about 65% to 68% of eligible voters to vote in the Presidential election this time. Say 66.5% X 244M = 162,250,000–3M 3rd party votes = about 159,250,000 Harris/Trump votes. Let’s increase that to a round 160,000,000 total Harris/Trump votes.
Because of the Electoral College bias, Harris will need to get a minimum of around 52% of the Trump/Harris vote or about 83,200,000 Harris votes to get a solid win in the electoral college vs. Biden’s 2020 total of 81,283,000.
In absolute numbers Harris will need about 2 million more popular votes in 2024 than Biden got in 2020 with the understanding that there will be about 6,725,000 more eligible voters in November 2024 than there were in 2020. 6,725,000 X 66.5% = 4,472,125 more votes will be cast in 2024 than in 2020.
2,000,000/4,472,125 = 44.7%. In other words Harris needs to get the same votes in 2024 that Biden got in 2020 plus only about 45% of the new votes cast in 2024 to comfortably beat Trump.
That’s clearly not a cake walk, but it is very doable.
I think that there is a very good chance that Harris will be able to save us from the dishonest, corrupt, criminal, Russia-loving Donald Trump.
Seven Reasons Why Harris Has A Good Chance Of Being Elected
Why do I think a relatively unknown Black woman can defeat Trump given the misogyny and racism in the United States? For at least seven reasons:
- 1) Since they didn’t have the expense of any primary fights, the Democrats’ supporters have a ton of money available to fund the general election campaign.
- 2) Harris is half South Asian and there are at least 2 million South Asian voters living in the United states and many of them are very wealthy. They will turn out and vote for Harris and they will give her money.
- 3) In order to win, a democrat has to turn out huge numbers of black urban voters to overcome the states’ white rural voters. The Republicans will try to restrict the ability of urban citizens to vote, so many of those black voters will have to miss a day’s work in order to cast their ballot.
— — A frail, doddering Joe Biden was not going to inspire that level of sacrifice, commitment and energy. Kamala Harris will. The urban Black turnout for her will be large enough to move Georgia, Virginia, Pennsylvania and several other states into the Democrat column.
- 4) Fundamentalist Christians are the core of the Republican Party. The fundamentalist Christian religion is essentially a “women stay in the kitchen while the man is in charge of everything except cooking, cleaning and watching the kids” social template.
— — The fundamentalist ideas about abortion, birth control, homosexuality, women’s freedom, etc. are unattractive to an overwhelming majority of women. Not just “liberal” women. A large majority of all American women.
— — A relatively young, vigorous, professionally successful woman will garner a lot of female votes in a quiet rebellion against the Republican Party’s fundamentalist Christian message.
— — These non-liberal, suburban women will tell pollsters that they are “undecided” but in the privacy of the voting booth they will vote for Harris. They will.
— — Kamala’s actual votes from women from the right-center all the way though the left will be much higher than the polls will predict. Their votes for Harris will be a big surprise for the pollsters on election night.
- 5) Trump’s spent a huge amount of time saying that voting for the Old Guy is a bad idea and now he’s the “old man” in the race. That will come back to bite him on the ass.
- 6) Kamala is a skilled prosecutor. One of her core messages should be: “I spent my professional life putting criminals like Donald Trump in prison. I’m never going to let a felon into the White House and neither should you.”
— — If she comes out fighting instead of delivering the Democrats’ typical, weak “Let’s all be friends and compromise on everything” message she will attract a lot of voters who would have stayed home if Joe B. were still the candidate.
- 7) There is a huge pool of Americans who didn’t want either Trump or Biden. As my girlfriend said a couple of weeks ago:
— — “I just want someone competent, reasonably intelligent, and decent, who will work hard and do a good job. That’s not a very high bar. It’s not too much to ask for, but instead I have a lying criminal on one side and a doddering old man who likely won’t be able to finish his term on the other.
— — “Neither party has given me even a marginally acceptable candidate.”
— — We are now in a situation where the Democrat’s candidate has more than passed that minimum acceptability test and the Republican’s candidate has not.
There are many, many people who in other elections would not vote for a Democrat but who this November will either stay home or will vote for Harris.
One personal example. One of my closest, dearest friends is a dyed-in-the-wool conservative Republican. He voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and for years has been very, very heavily involved in Republican Party politics.
He recently told me: “Trump/Vance are horrible on national security. Ukraine, NATO in particular. If I were confident that the [Harris] VP would be strong on the subject, I’d support her [Kamala]. A GOP Congress would keep a check on the leftist domestic policy. Security is always #1.”
If Harris
- picks a strong, centrist VP like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
- comes out straight talking, aggressive and keeps on fighting
- refuses to let the Spin Doctors run her campaign and, instead, sincerely talks to the American people from her heart, telling them who she is and what she wants to accomplish regardless of whether some polling says that is popular or not
- runs a campaign that is 35% “Trump is a horrible person and a threat to America” and 65% about the Republican agenda being to make rich people richer and that with a cooperative Congress she will fight big pharma, get farmers the right to repair their own equipment, rein in Wall Street and overpaid executives, find an answer to out-of-control rents, etc.
she will get between 53% and 55% of the total Harris/Trump vote.
— The racists will not vote for her.
— The misogynists will not vote for her.
— The MAGA cult members will not vote for her.
— The right-wing ideologues will not vote for her.
But that won’t be enough to stop her.
Voters Need To Either Like You Or Trust That You Will Be Their Champion
Hillary Clinton tried to hide her basically mean, arrogant, angry, awful personality from the voters, but on some psychic level they sensed it.
As hard as she tried, her basic unattractiveness as a person shined through. Above all else, people sensed that she did not have a loving, generous heart and they did not trust her.
It’s going to be up to Kamala Harris to bond with ordinary, non-political, average, normal Americans, to make them like her and trust her to do what they want done.
If Kamala Harris
- is actually the intelligent, decent, caring, trustworthy, courageous, good person that she appears to be, and
- is able to reveal to the American people that loving, generous, warrior’s heart,
she will kick Trump’s big, fat, flabby ass, Big Time.
And then, when the election is over, The King Of Lies will be tried, convicted, and sent to prison where he belongs. Unless he becomes the first former President to flee the country and live in exile, also where he belongs, a man who deserves to be without a country — Unwept, unhonored and unsung.
Donald Trump is the living embodiment of Sir Walter Scott’s famous poem.
High though his titles, proud his name,
Boundless his wealth as wish can claim;
Despite those titles, power, and pelf,
The wretch, concentred all in self,
Living, shall forfeit fair renown,
And, doubly dying, shall go down
To the vile dust, from whence he sprung,
Unwept, unhonour’d, and unsung.
— Sir Walter Scott
— David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
