A Sanders landslide in Nevada raises stakes in South Carolina. Our 10th Democratic debate preview.
This is the last presidential primary debate before South Carolina and Super Tuesday, when almost 35% of delegates will be awarded.
Nevada’s debate was spicy, attracting an audience of 19.7 million viewers — the largest in the history of Democratic presidential primary debates, also outdoing this year’s Grammys. And viewers are expecting nothing less from Tuesday’s debate in South Carolina, featuring all the same actors from last week plus Tom Steyer.
Back in the ring will be Senator Bernie Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Amy Klobuchar and former Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Who’s missing? Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard. Literally just her. (She’s also the only candidate to “lose” to “Uncommitted” in Nevada. Farewell tour soon?) To qualify, candidates needed either at least one pledged delegate from Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada or to have met a polling threshold designated by the Democratic National Convention.
Many candidates are recovering from a no-dice Nevada caucus, in which Senator Bernie Sanders took more than half of the available 36 pledged delegates.
So this debate will be one to watch: Not only is it the last one before South Carolina (which has 63 delegates, 54 of whom are pledged), it’s also the last before Super Tuesday, March 3, when 14 states and one U.S. territory will apportion 1,357 delegates to the remaining Democratic candidates. Given that there are 3,979 delegates total — and that the candidate who secures a majority takes the nomination — expect a lot of divisive deliberation and digs at the 10th Democratic presidential debate.
Sanders
The Vermont senator secured Nevada, with most news organizations calling the race before 11% of the vote was in. It seems the early voting states were feeling the Bern — and that fire should fuel him through South Carolina, where he’s been polling at second place. Nevada’s win might be enough to push him to the forefront of the last early voting state.
His last debate performance wasn’t stellar, but he stood his ground on health care and clapped back at accusations of “socialism.” That’s all he needs to do; as the frontrunner, Sanders simply needs to maintain the momentum he has through Super Tuesday, even if he’s stalled slightly in South Carolina.
As he takes center-stage, look for other candidates to crack down on his options for paying for Medicare for All and his recent comments supporting Fidel Castro’s regime in Cuba, which also sparked outrage in the Cuban-American community.
Still, Latinx support boosted him to victory in Nevada. And South Carolina, still a majority white state — with the second-largest voting demographic coming from the black community — has seen a recent growth in Latinx population. If that doesn’t come to play on Saturday, it certainly will be a priority in Super Tuesday’s heavy hitters: California and Texas. Expect him to reach out to those supporters in Tuesday’s debate.
Biden
South Carolina was Biden’s refuge while undergoing his traumatic New Hampshire experience; he should do well in the state, especially after a second-place win for the former vice president in Nevada. Biden is back, for now, and he’s hoping that a helping hand in South Carolina will raise him up in the subsequent Super Tuesday primaries.
And South Carolina is seemingly secured: Although Sanders’ recent regalia catapulted him above other candidates, Biden maintains the lead at 27% in the Palmetto State, according to a NBC/Marist poll released Monday, 4% ahead of Vermont’s senator.
Biden got some bite back in Nevada’s debate, however it’s possible that his mere lack of mishaps is what made him appear stronger compared to past performances. Although he seems the most-favored candidate of African Americans, those are the voters he needs to clinch the support of on Tuesday night, as his favorability there has declined 19 points since fall.
Buttigieg
The former South Bend mayor was not happy about his third place in Nevada — plus South Carolina doesn’t love Buttigieg, burying him at fifth place in recent polls. But with Super Tuesday just a week away, he should be able to ride the tailwinds of Iowa and New Hampshire a smidge longer.
That said, he cannot mess around on the debate stage, not that he tends to. Buttigieg has consistently clarified his policies, coming prepared and ready to defend himself on his level of experience. We saw him lash out at Klobuchar and Bloomberg last week, suggesting that Buttigieg might throw more punches this round.
He’ll need to: He hasn’t garnered the support of minority-population voters and Bloomberg’s addition seems to have taken a slice out of his moderate supporters. A strong showing here will get him through South Carolina and keep him competitive.
Warren
Warren was hoping for a comeback after her smackdown of Bloomberg at the ninth debate, but Nevada wasn’t there for Warren, leaving her in fourth place. It didn’t help that 75% of voters cast their caucus choice early, before the Silver State’s debate. Fourth won’t cut it for her in South Carolina, but that’s where she’s polling there at the moment. Is it over for the senator from Massachusetts?
Her strong debate last time skyrocketed her to a shaky second in the first national poll post-Nevada; she needs another showing like that. Maybe this time will solidify how strong she can stand as a candidate to defeat Trump — a priority for Democratic voters. Using New York’s Democratic billionaire as a foil for the president, perhaps she can pivot her placement with a powerful performance.
Still, Warren’s support has slowed after poor turnout in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, ultimately undercutting her campaign. Despite the aforementioned national poll placement, the senator’s fall has been dramatic since October, when she was second to Biden: She’s resting right below Bloomberg in an uncomfortable fourth place nationally, according to a RealClearPolitics multi-poll average.
Steyer
He’s back and ready to penetrate your soul with his notorious debate stare. Steyer qualified by the skin of his teeth after scoring 18% in the CBS/YouGov poll. Expect him to do well: Behind Biden, he’s the second favorite among black voters in South Carolina, who make up almost 30% of the state.
The billionaire has been boosting ads in the Palmetto State, funneling more than $1.2 million into Facebook and $12 million into television and radio ads over the past few months, according to POLITICO. His on-the-ground approach has also been strong there, with 82 paid staffers: the most of any campaign.
Steyer has no delegates so far; in order to stay viable, he’ll need a few in South Carolina ahead of Super Tuesday, making this debate crucial for him. It will be his first stage shared with fellow-billionaire Bloomberg — although Bloomberg’s wealth far outweighs Steyer’s, we’ll see how money cracks into their conversation.
Klobuchar
The Minnesotan senator needs a lifeline. Stat. She came out surprisingly strong with a third-place win in New Hampshire after a weak Iowa: She’s hoping that will happen again in South Carolina after her blowout in Nevada.
Stumbling through last week’s debate didn’t help, as moderators threw questions about her handling of a case which jailed a black teen for life and her blunder of forgetting Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s name. Buttigieg “atted” her live, spurring a spat which will likely swell again in Charleston.
Klobuchar’s delegate-less demise in the Silver State is not what she needed, especially as she’s polling at 4% in the South Carolina CBS/YouGov poll and 6% nationally. The Midwesterner needs more than mom jokes at this debate.
Bloomberg
Welcome back. His first ballot appearance will arise Super Tuesday, so expect him to come out strong as he tries to make up for his last performance, at which other candidates dismantled the former mayor for his wealth, treatment of women, comments on the transgender community and stop-and-frisk policy.
Despite this, he picked up three congressional endorsements last week, making him the second-most-favored Democrat by Congress in the race (behind Biden). In an apology attempt, the former New York City mayor promised to release three women who worked for Bloomberg L.P. from inhibiting nondisclosure agreements. But don’t expect him to release his tax returns anytime soon though.
Even though it doesn’t seem like his poor performance hindered him nationally, he likely won’t recover from another blow, which could extinguish what might’ve been a “battle of billionaires” in November.
The Charleston debate will be hosted by CBS News and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute in partnership with Twitter, moderated by Norah O’Donnell, Gayle King, Margaret Brennan, Major Garrett and Bill Whitaker from 8:00–10:00 p.m. E.T.
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