Have questions about the Iowa Caucus? Look here.
This year will feature a few changes to an already-complicated process.
Caucusing has been a function of American politics since before the inception of the country. The term is widely believed to have originated in the British Colonies in North America and, along with primaries, it continues as an essential function in each presidential election cycle.
On the eve of the first political contest in the 2020 presidential election cycle, the Iowa Caucus, let’s break down what a caucus is, why Iowa is so important and what to look for when the results start pouring in. In this article, we will primarily focus on the Democratic party’s process, methods and results.
What is a caucus and how does it work?
A caucus is a meeting at which local members of a political party register their preference among candidates running for office or select delegates to attend a convention. Usually this involves people meeting at a specified local location and physically standing in an area to designate which candidate they prefer. A first count is taken to see where everyone in the room stands and what candidate they have chosen. In Iowa, candidates must have at least 15% of the total vote in order to be “viable” and make it to the next round. For example:
Candidate A: 30% (viable)
Candidate B: 5% (not viable)
Candidate C: 10% (not viable)
Candidate D: 25% (viable)
Uncommitted: 30% (must choose a candidate in next round)
Also included in the count are those who are “uncommitted,” or people who haven’t selected a candidate yet.
Caucusgoers are then given an opportunity to talk about why their candidate is the best selection and try to convince each other to switch sides. Uncommitted voters also have a chance to visit each side and learn about the pros and cons of each candidate. After 30 minutes of discussion and moving, the voting is closed and a final head count is conducted. Each precinct apportions delegates according to how many people stand in their corner. A second decision is needed because a voter’s second choice could help a candidate tremendously.
These numbers are reported to the state party, which counts the total number of delegates for each candidate and reports the results to the media. These “state delegate equivalents” will be the number people focus on.
Winning is determined by whomever has the most SDEs pledged; however, multiple candidates can receive different numbers of delegates depending on the realignments, so multiple “winners” can be announced following the results.
Once a precinct has determined the number of delegates, what happens next?
The Iowa Caucus is not a singular event; it does in fact have multiple parts. In Iowa, delegates then go to county, state and district caucusing events where they repeat the same process as the local caucuses and choose to select a candidate. These then culminate in selected delegates from each of the following rounds going to the Democratic National Convention (this year in Milwaukee, W.I.) to pledge a vote for a particular candidate.
A more in depth explanation of what happens after Monday can be found here, but the rest of the process gets far less media and political attention.
Why should we care about Iowa?
The reason why we pay so much attention to Iowa’s caucuses is because it is the first in the national contest for the presidential election. Candidates have usually been on the road campaigning, so having an actual political event to see where voters stand is a good way to see how a candidate is doing. Although the winner of the Iowa Caucus is not guaranteed the nomination, it is seen as a good bellwether of political viability and momentum for the rest of the race.
It should be noted that Iowa sends 41 pledged delegates to the DNC, making up only approximately 1% of the 3,979 total delegates at the convention for the first ballot.
Why do people criticize the Iowa caucuses?
For many years, pollsters, pundits, strategists, voters and candidates have criticized Iowa for a variety of reasons. One of the main criticisms is Iowa’s lack of diversity. Iowa is 90% white, 65% protestant, and maintains a mostly agricultural economy — far different from the religious and socioeconomic status of the entire nation. Many of the state’s voters are in predominantly rural locations and even though it has 3.1 million people, Iowa’s largest city and capital, Des Moines, has only 203,000 people, representing a low concentration of voters across the state.
The state is also largely unreliable in terms of party loyalty. Since 1972, the state has ultimately voted for Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan (twice), Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton (twice), Al Gore, George W. Bush, Barack Obama (twice) and Donald Trump. While this gives candidates ample chance to campaign and make their case for the presidency, Iowa voters have now become accustomed to preferential treatment during primary/caucus season.
Many also argue that the Iowa caucus is unnecessarily complicated and should be reformed. With 1,681 precincts across 99 counties, anti-caucusers stipulate that a simple primary where citizens vote would work to streamline the process. In fact, only a certain number of Iowans even participate in the process.
In 2016, 186,874 people participated in the Republican Caucus and 171,109 people participated in the Democrat Caucus, for a total of 357,983, or a turnout rate of 15.7% of those eligible to vote, which was the second highest in history (the record was 239,000 in 2008).
The reason for this is because many Iowans simply can’t make it. The system disproportionately affects shift workers who can’t take off work, people who don’t speak English, those with disabilities and parents who are unable to afford child care.
What is different this year?
This year, the caucuses will feature a few changes. The first is that, in addition to the 1,681 caucus locations Iowans can go to, they will also have the option of 87 satellite caucus locations located all over this country and others.
The second change is realignment. After the first round of votes is tallied, only those who have selected candidates who are not viable may realign, which is the same. The change is that those who have selected a viable candidate already may not change. The Iowa Democratic Party wanted to keep it to only two rounds this cycle to expedite the process to about one hour.
Lastly, the Iowa Democratic Party will publish three more separate results for the caucus. The first is the statewide preference after the first alignment, or who voters selected first. Next is the preference after the second alignment and last is the aforementioned state delegate equivalent. SDEs are the estimated number of delegates each candidate would get to the congressional district and state conventions
What should I look for?
Around 8 p.m. E.T., results from Iowa will begin to be reported. First, watch for precinct winners. While there may be multiple “winners” in the caucus, whomever gets the most will chalk up a significant win for their campaign. The Iowa Caucus can be a place where a candidate can gain serious political momentum. Recently, Bernie Sanders has displayed a strong showing in Iowan polls, but he has been unable to unseat Joe Biden as the favorite.
Meanwhile, Pete Buttigieg’s ground team in Iowa is among the best in the race and he has managed to position himself well going into the contest. But if things couldn’t get more complicated, Elizabeth Warren, who has struggled in recent weeks with polling and funding, is the top second choice candidate for most voters, meaning she could win big on Monday night.
A previous version of this article wrongly asserted that Barack Obama lost the Iowa Caucus and used last Caucus’ statistics for the number of delegates and precinct locations. GovSight regrets these errors.
GovSight will be live tweeting the results of the Iowa Caucuses. Follow us here.
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