Our 8th Democratic presidential debate preview
The same six candidates are on stage (plus Andrew Yang), but the stakes are higher — and different.
The eighth Democratic presidential debate kicks off tonight. Although it will look similar candidate wise, the circumstances are different than they were at their last meeting in Iowa. For this debate, candidates had until February 6 to qualify: They either needed one pledged delegate from the Iowa Caucus or to have met the Democratic National Convention’s rising funding thresholds and polling numbers.
So enter former Vice President Joe Biden, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Senator Bernie Sanders, businessman Tom Steyer, Senator Elizabeth Warren and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Candidates will have one minute and 15 seconds to answer questions and 45 seconds for rebuttals, moderated by ABC and WMUR. They will not be allowed to make opening or closing statements, but there will be a closing question for each.
Coming off a turbulent week with the “Iowa Caucus debacle,” campaigns have had to pivot and determine how to respond under these confinements. So what exactly should each candidate say?
Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg is going into the debate as a disruptor, having taken the lead in Iowa over Sanders by 0.1%, but he faces significant headwinds which may force him to push hard on stage.
Buttigieg has a much smaller staff in his New Hampshire operation and has failed to attract Latinx and black voters that he’ll need in later primaries like Nevada and South Carolina. He needs to build off of his Iowa momentum and have a spectacular performance during the debate to knock his competitors down.
Joe Biden
Things are not looking good for former President Barack Obama’s V.P.: Biden is looking to recover from Iowa’s disappointing results. His ongoing strategy has been to posit himself as the premiere candidate to take on Donald Trump. That strategy has shifted to attacking other candidates, specifically Buttigieg and Sanders.
Biden will most likely be on the offensive during tonight’s debate, with the main goals being to distinguish himself as the best candidate against the opposition and to preserve his voting base for future primaries.
Elizabeth Warren
If Biden needs a stand out performance, then Warren needs a Hail Mary. Warren has consistently been a top performer in debates and she is effectively going home to New Hampshire (as she is a senator from the neighboring Massachusetts), but it’ll take more than that to make her stand out after weak results in Iowa and recent low polling numbers.
Lately, Warren has presented herself as the “unity candidate,” trying to appeal to moderates and progressives alike, even showing a new ad that features Obama praising her work for establishing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. This is the first notable time that Warren has attached herself to the former president. Either way, the senator will have to outshine her opponents to stay in the race.
Bernie Sanders
Last, but certainly not least, among the top four: Sanders managed to score a big win in Iowa and polls indicate that he is poised for a win in New Hampshire as well. He is expected to win 29% of the vote in New Hampshire, according to FiveThirtyEight, significantly more than the next closest candidate, Buttigieg, who is expected to garner 23%.
On the debate stage, Sanders is going to appeal to his nearby home base in Vermont and to voters who supported him in the last primary election. Sanders pummeled Hillary Clinton in 2016, winning by a margin of 22% in the Granite State. Expect the senator to be on the defensive, as he is the candidate to beat in New Hampshire. A win (or even second place) for Sanders could position him well for the next few primaries and for Super Tuesday, which is less than a month away.
Amy Klobuchar
Klobuchar beat expectations in Iowa, snagging one delegate and 12.3% of total vote. Still, she did not win nearly enough needed to propel herself in the race.
Her campaign faces serious issues, with little-to-no support from non-white voters and a continued slowing of funds from across her base. She came under fire recently for her handling of a case involving a black teenager in Hennepin County, Minnesota. Friday night may be her last chance to save her campaign. Historically, Klobuchar is not scared to attack and has criticized other candidates for their policy plans and initiatives, so expect a good fight out of her.
Tom Steyer
Steyer and Yang laid big goose eggs on delegate counts in Iowa; their overall vote counts were abysmal. While Steyer has maintained television advertising in the state, he is going to need to be very aggressive to attract voters and make one last push, or else his campaign may be extinguished.
Andrew Yang
On the other side of the stage (literally) is Yang, who didn’t qualify for the 7th Democratic debate. Qualifying for this one is certainly a win for him, but he appears to be bleeding out: After his performance in Iowa, Yang fired dozens of staffers, including his national political director, deputy national political director and policy directors, POLITICO reported. Yang still has scattered support across the country, but he needs to attract voters in tonight’s debate — not necessarily for funding or polling, but for morale’s sake.
The eighth Democratic presidential debate will take place at 8:00 p.m. E.T. in Manchester, New Hampshire at St. Anselm College. ABC, WMUR-TV and Apple News are broadcasting, with Linsey Davis, David Muir, George Stephanopoulos, Adam Sexton and Monica Hernandez moderating.
The author’s opinions are his own; they do not reflect the sentiment of GovSight: a nonpartisan, civic information platform.
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