Senate races: What to watch — and what seats were decided before campaigning
GovSight Political Director Joe Magliocco’s first installment of election predictions — where is your state on the list?
Welcome everyone to the first round of my 2020 Senate race ratings!
I am incredibly excited as GovSight’s political director to be given the job of following and projecting these races as we approach Election Day in November. These races will be crucial because no matter who wins the White House, the president needs a Senate majority to back their legislative choices.
The goal of my projections is to make the outcome of a race “certain:” Once a race is placed in the “certain” category, coverage of it will cease; my official projection will be certified by GovSight. Only under outstanding circumstances — such as dramatic polling swings — will I take a race out of the certain column.
These are the different categories that I’ve bucketed outcomes under:
Certain. Outcome was decided before it began.
Likely [party]. Outcome is not certain, but it is very likely this party will win.
Close, [party] advantage. Outcome is a close call, but one party has a leg up.
Toss-up. Outcome is too close to call.
With that, let’s get started!
Certain outcomes
Democratic wins
Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont.
Republican wins
Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee and Georgia.
Likely outcomes
Democrat win
Michigan. John James, who lost the 2018 Senate race in Michigan to Senator Debbie Stebanow, is gearing up for another run — this time, against Sen. Gary Peters. President Donald Trump has previously thrown his support behind James — which will grow in importance, especially as Michigan appears more likely than ever to play a massive role in the presidential election. But polling has shown a consistent lead for Peters, as M.R.G. and Public Policy Polling in the past two weeks show a healthy 7–8% lead.
Republican wins
Texas. After Representative Beto O’Rourke’s unbelievably tight 2018 Senate run, many are wondering if a Democrat can close the deal and oust Republican Senator John Cornyn. Two Democrats advanced to the runoff (which occurred because no candidate receiving over 50% of the vote in the primary): Air Force Veteran M.J. Hegar and State Senator Royce West. Hegar, who has the better chances of the two, garnered endorsements from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Tammy Duckworth. Still, West secured the endorsement of Congressman Al Green, one of the most prominent Democrats in the state. A February NBC/Marist poll showed Hegar trailing Cornyn 49% to 41%. Regardless, Democrats face an uphill battle.
Iowa. Sen. Joni Ernst is in for a re-election campaign, but her opponent hasn’t been selected yet. Without an opponent, the state that tends to lean Republican — but voted twice for Obama — is tough for me to project beyond a likely Ernst victory.
Kentucky. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is one of the most polarizing politicians in the entire country. While he has deep political roots — and a war chest of money — that could save him, Amy McGrath, who made a notable run for Congress in 2018, is developing deep pockets of her own with $6.2 million raised in in the last quarter of 2019. A former fighter pilot, McGrath’s 2018 run not only familiarized her name with Kentucky voters, but also with Democrats and donors across the country. Recent polling showed this being a much closer race than anyone anticipated. But we need to take into account how momentous it would be for McConnell to lose: He may not win by as much as he has in the past, but he will probably win. Money could pour in for McGrath at the end — if COVID-19 has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen — so there’s potential for a surprise.
West Virginia. Before you roll your eyes, let me get a few points across: 1). West Virginia has a long history of Democratic politics, especially in the Senate where Democrats have enjoyed electoral success up until recently — Sen. Joe Manchin won as a Democrat in West Virginia; 2). Richard Ojeda, the likely Democratic nominee, was the candidate who generated the largest point swing of any 2018 congressional race and has a message that resonates there. An army veteran covered in tattoos, Ojeda is not your typical Democrat — a massive part of his appeal. For those reasons, I am not ready to say the state is a certain Republican victory. But Ojeda has a mountain to climb if he wants to flip the state that most heavily backed Trump in 2016.
Alabama. After defeating Judge Roy Moore in one of the craziest special elections in recent history, Sen. Doug Jones’ time in the Senate appears to ending soon; Jones is the only incumbent Democrat I am forecasting to lose his re-election campaign. After getting to Washington, Jones cast several votes that were certain to cost him in his red state. The better question to ask is who Senator Jones will be running against: Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions is running for his old seat, but his former-ally (Trump) endorsed former Auburn University Football Coach Tommy Tuberville instead. A February Alabama Daily News poll had Sessions with a 13% lead and Tuberville with an 8% lead over Jones.
South Carolina. I highly doubt that Sen. Lindsey Graham is going to lose, but Jamie Harrison is too dynamic of a candidate for me to refute a second glance. Harrison, former chair of the S.C. Democratic Party, has drawn the support of Democrats nationwide with his message of hope. Polling on this race has been a bit of a mixed bag: A February NBC/Marist poll showed Graham with a 17% lead, but a March poll from Brilliant Corners Research had the race within 4%. Graham will likely gather more support on election day, especially because of his relationships with donors.
Georgia: Special election. This race is easily the most intriguing race of the 2020 cycle as far as I am concerned. Not only is it one of two Senate elections taking place in Georgia at the moment, but it is also a race where the incumbent Republican may lose to another Republican. The race is down to three main candidates: Incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Republican Rep. and House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Doug Collins and Democrat Matt Lieberman — son of Al Gore’s 2000 running mate, Sen. Joe Lieberman. On November 3, these three candidates and several others will appear on the ballot; the top two advance to a runoff set for January 5, 2021: 15 days before the presidential inauguration. Sen. Loeffler or Rep. Collins will likely emerge victorious, but as they increase attacks on each other, there is a plausible Lieberman scenario.
Close races
Democratic advantage
Arizona. Astronaut Mark Kelly is giving Sen. Martha McSally, who was appointed to serve in the interim for the late Sen. John McCain, a serious challenge; he looks to join Krysten Sinema and make the entire Arizona delegation blue. Kelly — the husband of assassination-attempt-survivor Rep. Gabby Giffords — has been tangentially involved in Arizona politics for years. And the 2018 victory of Sinema was the surest sign yet that the Grand Canyon State would offer Democrats significant leads. Currently holding a 7.5 lead, according to averaged polling from Real Clear Politics, I’ve called for a Kelly’s advantage in Arizona. Still, I am not yet ready to call the election because the state has voted consistently Republican for many years now. Arizona is also set to be a crucial swing state in the presidential election, meaning millions of dollars and thousands of staffers and volunteers will be sure to close up on the Democratic lead.
Maine. Republican Sen. Susan Collins has long enjoyed the support of Maine voters, but polling shows that her time may be up. While she has cast liberal-backed votes (e.g. voting against the repeal of Obamacare), she alienated many constituents with decisions like approving Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
North Carolina. Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham is running a close race against incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. A February NBC/Marist poll gave Cunningham 5% lead — 48% to 43% — while an East Carolina University poll from later in the week had Tillis up 44% to 42%. It’s early, but Cunningham has reason to be hopeful. With former Vice President Joe Biden seemingly on his way to win the Democratic nomination, North Carolina is sure to be a critical swing state in the presidential election — meaning Democratic money will be pumped into the state. I am comfortable saying that Cunningham has a very slight advantage; don’t buy champagne on that yet.
Republican advantage
Kansas. After losing the governor’s race by five points in in 2018, Kris Kobach, a Trump-backed Republican, is returning to run for the seat being vacated by Pat Robers. Known for being outspoken on alleged voter fraud issues, Kobach has drawn significant scorn from Democrats across the country for supposedly peddling conspiracies and targeting immigrants. Many have cited this as the reason he lost the governor’s race two years ago. He is running against multiple opponents, the most prominent being Congressman Roger Marshall. But Kobach has the leg up on Marshall. On the Democratic side, State Sen. Barbara Boiler is the likely nominee — reliable polls contrasting Boiler and Kobach have ranged from a tie to a Kobach blowout. I still hand it to Kobach: It is a race Trump will likely be involved in come fall; a variety of factors make this interesting to watch.
Toss-up races
Colorado. Sen. Cory Gardener is in for the fight of his life as he tries to fend off popular former presidential candidate John Hickenlooper. After a short run for the White House over the summer, former Governor Hickenlooper dropped out and entered the race to unseat the Republican senator. This is why it’s a toss up: 1.) It’s very hard to beat an incumbent; 2.) There has simply not been public polling since October. Very early polling indicated that this race would be a blowout, with Hickenlooper scoring a 13-point lead in three different polls from August through October. But a lot has happened since then involving both contestants: An impeachment (remember that?) and a pandemic. In that time, Sen. Gardener has been working hard for Coloradans, collaborating with Trump to pass environmental protections in the state. Both candidates have significant name recognition, access to donors and a long record of accomplishments of working for Colorado.
Montana. Sen. Steve Daines was ready for re-election before Governor Steve Bullock dropped out of the presidential race; Bullock entered the Senate race a few weeks ago. One poll has been conducted so far: tied at 47%. Montana has tended to swing Republican in presidential elections; both Bullock and Sen. Jon Tester showed that a Democrat can succeed there. The race is in a dead heat at the moment.
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