What to look for in the New Hampshire primary
Here’s what you need to know.
After last week’s Iowa Caucus debacle, the last thing people want to hear about is another state electoral contest (unless you’re Mike Schmuhl). The Iowa Democratic Party’s technological fiasco that caused the full results to be delayed by days certainly left a bad taste in many people’s mouths and even lead to D.N.C. Chairman Tom Perez to call for an immediate recanvass. Reports of online trolls clogging phone lines to delay and interfere with results also left many wondering why such an important emphasis is continually placed on Iowa.
However, candidates and their campaigns are now turning their attention to the next big contest: New Hampshire, the first primary in the nation. Let’s break down what the top four polling candidates need to do to win the Granite State.
Feeling the Bern
Bernie Sanders has seen a surge in the polls over the last few weeks, including a significant bump in New Hampshire. According to FiveThirtyEight, which aggregated polling data for the upcoming primary contest, Sanders maintains a comfortable 28% of the vote in New Hampshire, well above the next closest competitor, Pete Buttigieg, who is expected to garner 23% — miles ahead of progressive rival, Elizabeth Warren, at 14%. That surge in polling is certainly translating into dollars for his campaign: Sanders’ campaign raised an impressive $25 million during the month of January, which is more than some campaigns earned in the entire fourth quarter of 2019.
Sanders’ popularity in New Hampshire shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, given that the state he represents, Vermont, is right next door. During Sanders’ first presidential run in 2016, he swept the state, earning 15 delegates to Hillary Clinton’s 9.
Still, many in the party establishment fear Bernie Sanders, particularly if he manages to siphon off enough support from another candidate and split the party in two, similar to 2016. Ironically, Bernie’s biggest issue going forward will be attracting moderate or centrist voters to his campaign.
A Buttigieg bite back?
Pete Buttigieg’s strong performance in Iowa has prepared him well to take on New Hampshire. The 38-year-old former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana has pushed hard in the Granite State; his campaign hosted five town halls last Tuesday and he has 75 staffers in state, 65 of whom deal directly with voter outreach.
Buttigieg, like Sanders, has also seen a funding boost. His campaign announced in an email to supporters that they raised $2.7 million from more than 60,000 donors since Tuesday morning. Some of Buttigieg’s financial support can be traced back to his connections on Wall Street. In fact, Mayor Pete was in Manhattan’s Upper East Side attending a fundraising event Thursday night. Many in the party (in particular Sanders) have criticized the young politician for having too many wealth donors, including 40 billionaires, donate to his campaign. Still, Buttigieg’s money connection gives him the funding he needs without the paradoxical burden of having “too much money” (cue Mike Bloomberg).
Buttigieg’s biggest problem? Minority voters. During Friday night’s debate, he was consistently challenged on his relationship with the black community during his time as mayor; among Latinx voters, he has consistently polled in the single digits since 2019. This shouldn’t be a problem in New Hampshire: a state that is nearly 94% white — however in Nevada, where 26% of the population is Hispanic, it could prove to be an issue.
Pete’s problems don’t begin soon and he is widely considered to be the leading candidate going into New Hampshire. An uptick in popularity among voters over 50 and his campaign’s presence in pivot counties (counties that voted for Obama in 2012, then Trump in 2016), will certainly provide a potent combination for a possible primary win for Mayor Pete.
Warning for Warren
It’s do or die for the Warren campaign.
Elizabeth Warren only won one of Iowa’s 99 counties, the least of the top-tier candidates by far. Even fifth-place Amy Klobuchar managed to win a few.
The bad news is Warren’s campaign can’t sustain another major loss — and going 0–2 during the first two contests would put her almost out of reach of the nomination, unless she’s Bill Clinton. Simply put, losing New Hampshire would not position her well moving forward, as she has struggled to gain popularity in states like South Carolina and Nevada.
The good news is Warren, like Sanders, is effectively playing a home game. Warren represents Massachusetts, a state the borders New Hampshire, and her likability in New England’s largest media market will prove to be a valuable asset going into Monday’s primary. The latest CNN/UNH poll has Warren in fourth place in New Hampshire with 9% of the vote.
Biden some time
Joe Biden’s team wasn’t banking on a win in Iowa, but they also weren’t expecting a loss. Biden only managed to walk away with 15.8% of the vote in Iowa, translating into a disappointing six delegates for the former vice president.
After an emergency meeting about the result, Biden and his campaign staffers are looking to pull off an upset in New Hampshire: Anything less than third would be another “gut punch” for Joe.
But Biden’s campaign has lost some steam. As of today, he has fallen to the fourth spot of the top four candidates, trailing Warren by 1% of the expected total vote, according to polls averaged by FiveThirtyEight. Still, Biden does have political familiarity and popularity in the state; New Hampshire State Senate President Donna Soucy tweeted Monday morning that she would vote for Biden, making her the second-highest ranking elected official to weigh in on the race in the first-primary state.
Biden may not win New Hampshire outright, but if he manages a second or third place win, it could be enough momentum to propel him to the top of South Carolina later in February. He has a “firewall” of voters in South Carolina — many of whom are fairly moderate, of a racial minority and who voted for Barack Obama: a trifecta in Biden’s book. But at that, other candidates are creeping up in local polls. If Joe can squeeze out a few delegates in New Hampshire, then his campaign might be saved.
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