Why you should pay attention to the Nevada caucus
Nevada is almost never wrong. This is why it’s the most interesting early state to watch — and how it could set the tone for the 2020 election.
The Nevada caucuses take place Saturday, February 22, and as the Democratic candidates turn their heads to the Silver State, the nation is also watching to see who will come out on top.
Here’s what makes the home of Vegas so important when it comes to setting the tone of a race and predicting election outcomes.
History and demographics
Prior to 1981, Nevada had historically held primary elections and not caucuses when selecting delegates to the national convention. Although it has practically always been an early voting state, the importance of its early voting has been amplified in the 20th century. Urbanization, socioeconomic changes and political influence have made Nevada more representative of the nation compared to Iowa and New Hampshire.
Nevada is also the first Western state to vote in the election process, has a strong blue-collar economy and possesses a significant minority population.
The state had been a strong Republican stronghold, but since 1980, its population more than doubled, creating a unique divide that classifies it as a battleground state which favors Democrats. Nevada only has a few major population centers; seven of its 10 largest cities are located in the southernmost Clark county. The rest of the state’s population is spread out through out the north, central and eastern regions, dividing the state into a liberal south and a conservative north.
Voting record
If all the information above didn’t convince you of Nevada’s importance, then its presidential voting record should.
Since 1912, Nevada has voted for the winning presidential candidate 25 out of the last 27 times. The only times the state was “wrong” was in 1976 when it voted for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter and in 2016 when it voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. For all of you statisticians out there, Nevada has a 92% accuracy rate at predicting the next president.
While this is a little bit down the road (we haven’t even made it to Super Tuesday yet!), it is telling of Nevada’s history and of its changing electorate.
Keep in mind that candidates are fighting for 48 delegates, 36 of which are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of Saturday’s contest. In other words, Nevada’s caucuses are not the be-all and end-all for a candidacy, but they are an accurate way of predicting how voters might lean in the general election.
Caucus process
The Nevada caucuses will be very similar to Iowa in terms of the process and counting, but don’t worry: the Nevada Democratic Party will look to avoid a debacle.
Caucus votes were originally going to be counted on Shadow, the app the Iowa Democratic Party used, but because of how the Iowa caucus blew up, the Nevada D.N.C. switched to Google Forms running on 2,000 iPads to send results. As a fail-safe, voters will also fill out paper ballots that allow them to rank candidates by preference.
Similar to how Iowa candidates had to meet a 15% viability threshold within each precinct in order to be considered viable, the supporters of those who didn’t meet the preliminary threshold are then allowed to choose another candidate.
Here is where it gets a little complicated: Of the 36 pledged delegates, 23 will be allocated on the basis of the results of the precinct caucuses; five to six will be given to each of the state’s four congressional districts. Of the remaining 13 pledged delegates, five will be designated for party leaders and elected officials (P.L.E.O. delegates) with another eight serving as at-large pledged delegates. In addition to those 36, Nevada has 12 superdelegates.
In other words, during Nevada’s closed caucus, candidates will compete for the state’s 48 total delegates. So it’s time to bring it.
Where candidates stand
How do things stand in the race now? With Wednesday’s explosive debate, many of the candidates have had their footing shaken up.
Warren
Disappointing performances in Iowa and New Hampshire left Senator Elizabeth Warren eager to turn things around for her campaign. During Wednesday night’s ninth Democratic presidential debate, she came out firing on all cylinders and showed that her candidacy still has some life left in it, although she still lags far behind in the polls.
Sanders
Meanwhile, frontrunner Bernie Sanders has seen extremely strong support in Nevada, notably among younger and Latinx voters. According to a Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus poll conducted by Data for Progress, Sanders is up 35% to Warren’s 16% and Pete Buttigieg’s 15%.
Buttigieg
The former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana will also have to show up strong in Nevada in order to keep his presidential hopes alive. Buttigieg has had very strong showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, finishing in a near tie with Sanders in both states. Buttigieg’s debate performance wasn’t the strongest he has had so far in the cycle, but it certainly wasn’t his weakest.
Klobuchar
On the other end, Amy Klobuchar, who finished in a spectacular third place in New Hampshire, looked frazzled on the debate stage in Las Vegas and is looking for a strong showing in Nevada to keep her campaign going.
Biden
Joe Biden, who looked calm and steady amid a chaotic field Wednesday night, is also looking to rectify his campaign’s direction. Extremely low finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire left the Biden campaign desperate for a bounce back in Nevada and South Carolina, which is slated to vote next week.
Steyer and Gabbard
Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard did not make the debate stage, but they will be on the ballot on Saturday. Look for them to garner minimal support as the field narrows.
Steyer has enough personal wealth to continue funding his campaign, but support and polling is where he truly lacks. Gabbard, on the other hand, has consistently attracted funding, but may fall by the wayside if her campaign doesn’t get a strong showing in Nevada.
Bloomberg
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who was hammered during the debate on Wednesday, will not appear on the ballot in Nevada, but will continue to campaign strongly for Super Tuesday.
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