Local elections in Portugal
On the 1st of October, Portuguese are going to the polls for the first time since the unprecedented and surprising political agreement between the socialist party, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party. Local elections, despite being disputed in a local context have sometimes national consequences. For example, in 2001, then Prime Minister António Guterres (now UN Secretary general) who rule in a minority government, resigned after a huge defeat, understanding that he didn’t have the support to continue to negotiate with the other political parties. A resignation will not happen this time anyway, but still, there may be deep political consequences after this local election that I will explain later.
First, the context: There are only three relevant parties in terms of local elections: The Socialist Party, The Social Democratic party and in another level, the Communist Party. In 2013, in the peak of the crisis, none of the two biggest parties were in good shape. The Socialist Party was taking all the blame for the crisis and the Social democratic party was being heavily criticized for the austerity measures and also being disturbed by internal fights that divided the party in some cities. Anyway, the Socialist Party end up having a convincent win, going from winning 132 cities to 150 with a huge victory in Lisbon (51%) and an unexpected one in Sintra. The Social Democratic party who previously to the election controlled 3 of the 5 biggest cities end up losing all of them, with humiliating defeats in Porto and Lisbon. The communists(CDU) also had also a nice result going from 28 to 34 cities controlled.
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Results of the 2013 local election[/caption]
Now, the context is much more favorable for the socialist party. The country is growing, the deficit is in historic low, unemployment is down and above all, the majority of the country feels the option of alliance of the socialist Party with the left wing parties was the right one.
Lisbon — Lisbon is generally a center-left city, the socialist party won here with António Costa four years ago, with a historically big victory. This year, will still win, but probably not for that margin. From 2013 to 2017 problems of habitation and mobility increased and are the issues that have dominated the campaign. The CDS, Christian democratic party (a bit more conservative than the social democrats) is generally weak in local elections but this time they are running with their leader. With promises of more social assistance to the elderly, more affordable housing for the middle class and the construction of 20 more metro stations, her campaign has been gaining support. It is also overshadowing the apathetic and empty candidacy of the other candidate on the right — Teresa Leal Coelho. The Social Democrat admitted that she wasn’t the first choice to run in Lisbon, didn’t know about some taxes in the city and beyond her uninspired narrative, committed lots of gaffes.
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Last day of campaign for the socialists[/caption]
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Assunção campaigned in a motorcycle, trying to raise attention for the problems of mobility in Lisbon[/caption]
Porto — The Historically conservative city was won by Rui Moreira at 2013 election. The independent businessman who become known for football commentary as a F.C Porto pundit ( football is common start for many politicians) pulled up a surprise taking the city from Social Democrat control. Moreira governed the city in a coalition with the socialists. The coalition went well, and there were talks to renew it that were abruptly ended for feeling the socialists were affecting the Independence of his candidacy. Rui Moreira will probably renew his mandate but last polls show that he is neck and neck with the Socialist Party. It would be somewhat historic for the left to win the city they don’t win in 20 years.
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The mayor of Porto is not afraid of conflicts, already clashing with many political parties, politicians, poll companies and the mayor of Vigo, Spain.[/caption]
Loures — Loures is the 5th biggest city in Portugal, in normal conditions I wouldn’t include this city, but this is one of the most interesting results of the election. The Socialists and the communists have been the dominant force in the city since always, with the Right being pretty much irrelevant. This election however, will have an extra attraction — André Ventura. The young social democrat was unknown until a year ago when he started to become famous as a Benfica pundit. He started his campaign by giving an interview in which he said gypsies receive too much from welfare benefits and don’t pay bus tickets, criticized the excessive muslim immigration in some European countries, said that terrorism will make everyone discuss about the death penalty, promised to create a local army if the police don’t give him support to deal with security among many other things. This type of discourse is rare in Portugal and inexistent among politicians, so much that social democrat historic heavywights criticized him heavily and even CDS, the conservative party that supported him in a coalition pulled out, presenting another candidate. This strategy is a clear test to know at what extent this kind of discourse can be successful in Portugal. The communists will win anyway, they recovered a city that was highly indebted without raising taxes, overall the population is very satisfied with their management, but a significant increase in the % of the social democrats could signal this is a good discourse to pursue.
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André Ventura, the social democratic candidate for Loures[/caption]
In another cities, the socialists will consolidate their majority in Sintra(2nd biggest city) with the Christian democrat Basílio Horta, one of the original founders of CDS who is running for the Socialist Party. In Vila Nova de Gaia, the third biggest city was conquered by the socialists in 2013 and as Sintra their majority will be consolidated. Socialists will still keep their majority in the universitary city of Coimbra. Oeiras is an interesting case, they have 4 candidates from the social democrats or who are running as independents and were previously from the Social Democrats. The city will likely be won by one of these independents, Isaltino Morais who was, in the past, sentenced for corruption. In Matosinhos, the case is the opposite, three candidates from the socialists or independents from the socialist party. Cascais(traditional social democratic city) and Braga will be the great expected victories the social democrats will claim in the Sunday elections.
These local elections might have 3 political consequences: the likely overwhelmingly defeat of the Social Democrats will likely trigger a leadership contest. Pedro Passos Coelho, leader since 2010, was never loved but his persistency and resilience will make him stand again. The former mayor of Porto is however the favorite for now and he is one of the more respected politicians in Portugal. Also related with the Social democrats is the result in Loures, if the social democrats increased significantly their share of votes, it will make many in the party to pursue a ‘’trumpist strategy’’ Another consequence might affect the current political partnership between the Socialists and the far-left parties. If the communists who are traditionally strong local elections lose some cities, that might ring some bells and make the far-left demand more or eventually leave this political agreement in the next year. The Socialist Party is, at this moment, doing well in the polls, almost reaching an absolute majority but that isn’t certain; turning the back to the left-wing parties and going to an early election is always unpredictable and above all would make the socialists being criticized not only on the right but also on the left like between 2005–2011 when socialists had an absolute majority. That is not a desirable scenario.
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The communists will try, above all, to keep all their cities and have good % in Lisbon and Porto[/caption]
About the author: André Branco Pereira, proud 2016 Graduate of Democracy (’15).
Disclaimer: This article reflects the author’s opinion it might not reflect the whole group’s opinion
