Why Product Launches Still Matter
The media reaction to the recent Apple Launch has been a joy to witness. Self-confessed ‘experts’ have labelled it as everything from the dawn of a new technical age right through to the nail in the coffin for Apple. Investors would seem to agree with the latter camp as $30B was wiped off the value of the company in one day. Are Apple’s new products that far off the mark? Was the Apple Launch a failure?
Of course not. Product launches should be examined by one merit and one merit only; noise. Unless you were hiding under a rock, you were more than likely exposed to the brand of ‘Apple’ in some shape or form over the past couple of weeks. If you own an iPhone, have you updated to iOS7 yet? That is the true litmus test of their launch.
Phil Libin, CEO of Evernote, stated that “iOS 7 is the biggest day in technology ever”.
“There’s never been another day like this in the history of the universe where hundreds of millions of people will see a big change to something that they’re used to”.
When you think about it, it’s hard to disagree with this sweeping statement. Analysts and investors might react (negatively in this case) to the products launched but consumers react to the launch itself (updating their iPhones accordingly). Investors may care that the price point of the iPhone 5C is too high for the Chinese market. Consumers really only care about staying on top of technology trends and validating their own choices. In an information age, getting above the noise is everything. Product launches are still an effective way of doing this.
Peter Thiel, in his class on start-ups in Stanford University, spoke about about how most people generally underestimate the importance of distribution. In short, he argued that the distribution of a product is everything. He compared the adoption of Thomas Edison’s Direct Current (which was an inferior offering at the time) over Nikola Tesla’s Alternating Current (a superior offering) as an example of this. Edison was a shrewd businessman who knew how to market his products, eventually going on to found General Electric. Tesla was a genius who could not ‘market’ his inventions and he eventually went bankrupt. The best product doesn’t always win.
In fact, if you look at most start-ups today, the main hurdle that they face is market risk as opposed to technology risk. Unless you’re building the next and best microprocessor, the chances are that a lack of customers will be your biggest challenge. If you build it, they won’t come.
This is something that we’ve been acutely conscious of since the inception of Soundwave. Our goal is to build one of the world’s most used and loved smart-phone apps and to make music discovery an enjoyable experience in the process. According to Google, the Play Store recently hit the 1,000,000 app mark (eclipsing the App Store which has 900,000 apps). Does that mean that we’ve a million to one shot of making it to the top spot of the stores?
Although the majority of developers underestimate just how hard it is to get noticed, we worked tirelessly for months before our launch developing our community, building up relationships with the press and media influencers and generally marketing the app in any way that we could.
By the time we pressed the launch button on 20 June 2013, we had done everything we could to get above the noise. Thanks to our awesome community of users, we were picked up by all the top media houses in both Europe and the US. We were also featured by the App Store as a highly coveted ‘Editor’s Choice’ app and as a ‘Staff Pick’ by the Play Store.
On the release of iOS7, we’re delighted to announce that we’ve been chosen by Apple again to be featured worldwide. We’re now front and center on the App Store (Best New Apps, Designed for iOS7) in 53 countries. There is no better feeling then waking up to see your app in the shop window of the most important shop in the world to all developers!
To be featured once was an honor. Being featured twice has blown all our expectations out of the water and we’re genuinely humbled to be named along with the Evernotes, RunKeepers and iTranslates of the app world. We genuinely could not have asked for a better start. Although our launch was only a stepping stone towards reaching our goal, we’re confident that our product is also good enough to back up the hype. This is fundamental to the power law of distribution because the best launch in the world (or series of launches) will not be enough to help a crappy product reach a critical mass.
When you break it down, there are really only four main ways in which a product’s life cycle can pan out in the early stages. For ease, I’ve put together a matrix below which sets these out:-
QUADRANT ONE
Ideally, you will find yourself in Quadrant One which equates to a good launch backed up by a good product. The now legendary launch of the iPhone by Steve Jobs at MacWorld 2007 is a perfect example of this. Self described by Jobs as the day that Apple ‘reinvented the phone’, the launch was unprecedented in the amount of publicity it received. More importantly, on release, the iPhone became the greatest selling Apple product of all time with over 250,000 units shipped in the first weekend alone. This launch and adoption by consumers ultimately set the bar for product releases in the Twenty First Century.
Since then, every other smart-phone manufacturer has tried to emulate this formula. More often than not, they’ve also failed magnificently for the simple reason that the 2007 iPhone launch was a perfect storm of product, press and a pitch by the only person who could give it the gravitas it deserved; Steve Jobs.
QUADRANT TWO
Products that fall into Quadrant Two are those that have a good launch but then fall away into obscurity because the hype is not justified by the product itself. There are countless examples of these types of products (remember Color!) but the one that comes to mind most recently is Twitter Music. #Music became one of the most anticipated consumer tech launches in recent memory (and if truth be told had us very worried before it launched). At its peak, Twitter Music hit number 5 in the Top Free Apps Chart in the App Store. However, just one week after the launch and despite all the media attention, Twitter Music fell out of the top 100 free apps in the App Store. To add insult to injury, the person who spearheaded the project reportedly jumped ship one week after launch and joined another company.
Now struggling to gain traction, Twitter Music has turned to Rdio’s and Spotify’s platforms in an attempt to drum up some interest. I think that it’s fair to say that the product itself isn’t good enough and no amount of hype, strategic partnerships or media attention is likely to change that in the near future. Good launch, crappy product.
QUADRANT THREE
Products that fall into Quadrant Three typically don’t market themselves very well at the launch stage but manage to succeed anyway through their ability to meet consumer demand with a fantastic offering. A good example of this is AirBnB.
It’s not a widely known fact but it actually took AirBnB three ‘launches’ before they started to get real traction. Initially, the founders launched the product at SXSW in March 2008 but only managed to rent out 60 rooms. They tried again in the summer of 2008 at the Democratic National Convention and fared better that time letting 800 rooms in the process. But as CTO Nathan Blecharczyk admitted in this interview, AirBnB still could not reach a critical mass in the cities it was in following the second ‘launch’. Realizing that they were nowhere closer to navigating through the market risk challenges that they faced, the founders decided to move to San Francisco and enroll in Y Combinator. They eventually reached a critical mass (in no small part thanks to the distribution channels that Y Combinator can provide) and the rest is history.
Crappy Launch(es), Good Product. Analysts have predicted that AirBnB could go public for north of $10B and is currently valued at $2.5B. It’s frightening to think that it might not exist today if the company hadn’t been accepted into Y Combinator in January 2009. On a side note, AirBnB recently confirmed that their European HQ is going to be in Dublin (my hometown) which is great news!
When it comes to life cycles, most start-up founders will be all too aware of the ‘Start-Up Curve’ as set out below. This cyclical process documents the stereotypical experience that any emerging company faces as it strives to scale. Typically, products that fall into Quadrant Three take much longer to scale and some may not even make it through the ‘Trough of Sorrow’ because of the initial lack of traction. Without a user base to iterate the product around, start-ups will struggle to scale with any velocity. Give me a ‘TechCrunch of Initiation’ and a corresponding ‘Wearing Off of Novelty’ any day over a flat line of growth.
The worst outcome for a startup is not failure — its mediocrity. — Darmesh Shah
QUADRANT FOUR
Products in Quadrant Four never even have the chance to be rejected by the masses. You will simply never hear about a crappy product with a crappy launch. These products are the ones that are non-starters and never even get out of the traps. Unfortunately, the world is full of these companies that you’ll never know even existed.
CONCLUSION
A product launch should be viewed simply as the lighter fuel that is needed to accelerate a hot product. Without a successful launch — poor products fail more quickly, good products are slower to take off.
Brand awareness is everything in this day and age so why not increase your chances of success by going big from the start. If you’re confident in your product, why not quicken the typical curve faced by most consumer tech companies and reach the ‘Promised Land’ sooner than later.
This is our key focus at the moment at Soundwave. We completely overhauled our app for iOS7 which was a big task and something which our lead iOS developer, Brian Boyle, should be very proud of. We treated this release as another opportunity for PR and started the spin cycle all over again. Taking a leaf out of AirBnB’s book — we attempted to take more than one bite at the cherry and ‘launch’ our product again. Whatever it takes, you need to stay above the noise.
In my view, there is no such thing as over exposure (if a product is good enough). The product doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be better then bad to make sure you can retain some users who you can turn to as the foundation of your user base. If you have 1000 users who love you, you can find a million more of these.
You can also launch on a shoe string and unless you’re an Apple of the world, you’ll probably have to anyway. Look at Dropbox which ‘launched’ with a video on Digg. They went from a waiting list of 5,000 to 75,000 overnight as a result.
In sum, it doesn’t matter if Apple’s recent launch is considered a flop or not as the company is firmly back in the limelight and they’ll do everything in their power to hold on to this publicity right through to Christmas. iOS7 will continue to gain traction and the same investors will probably go long on Apple again. The uptake on the newest breed of iPhones has already been described as ‘incredible’ according to AllThingsD. Opinions about products may come and go but consumers vote with their wallets.
For this reason, product launches still matter because hype is a self fulfilling prophecy and one of the key ingredients to improving distribution in the initial stages. There is no such thing as bad publicity.
At the turn of the 20th Century, the French came up with a great term for this — ‘Succès de Scandale’ — which means success from scandal. If you think anything has changed since then, just ask Miley Cyrus about the reaction to her recent VMA twerking episode. Following the VMAs, her music video for the song ‘Wrecking Ball’ was viewed 19.3M times on VEVO during the first 24 hours of its release shattering VEVO’s previous viewing record. Good launch, good product? I think the vox populi has already cast their vote.
It would be great to hear from you. If you’re into music, feel free to check out @Soundwave. If it’s the chats you’re after, Tweet me. If you liked this post, please recommend it.
