Is Covid-19 a Warning Sign of Overpopulation?
For over 200,000 years of human history, the population of the world remained below 1 billion people. In the past 200 years and with the aid of fossil fuels, we have grown this to 7.8 billion. Governments globally are scrambling to find solutions that meet the food and energy needs of our ever-expanding population.
Throughout population change, we rely on the Sun as the source of all food chains- something we learn in primary school but seem to lose sight of in our daily consumption habits. We are also taught how its energy was conserved over millions of years in the form of fossil fuels, which us humans are due to exhaust within the next 50 years. Will the Sun continue to be strong enough to feed our future? If not, what will failure look like?
A Malthusian Catastrophe
Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) was a demographer, known for his studies on the relationship between population growth and food supply. He argued that if left uncontrolled, our population would eventually overtake food production and that any increase in capacity of food production (such as through technological advancements) would not improve our standard of living, since it would allow for an abundant population. This would inevitably put pressure back on resources and is known as the Malthusian Trap.
Malthus modelled food production as linear and population growth exponentially (as the population size increases so does the rate of growth). Although this may be too simplistic, the key idea is that population growth is limitless whilst food production is ultimately a function of finite resources- energy, land and water.
In Malthus’ theory, this dilemma would lead to two types of population checks: a ‘preventative check’ and a ‘positive check’. Preventative checks reduce birth rates, such as delayed marriage or legalising abortion. A well known example is China’s one-child policy which was implemented between 1980 and 2016. Positive checks, on the other hand, occur from a lack of preventative checks and reduce our population through methods such as famine, war and plague. They typically cause detriment to our health, economy or life expectancy.
The coronavirus pandemic we are facing has been declared an international health emergency by the World Health Organisation, crippled the global markets and currently has a third of the world’s population in lockdown. I would argue that this is an example of a positive check on our oversized population and will explore further below.
Food Habits
The link between food and disease is well explored. Along with globalisation, we have experienced a nutrition transition away from traditional diets to Western “luxury” diets. Greater access to different foods and increasingly cheap prices have driven the growth of unhealthy processed foods, high in calories and low in nutrition. Whilst processed food and their extended shelf life may have helped to sustain large populations, they have increased the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, cancer and heart disease. People with these conditions are particularly vulnerable to severe and life-threatening symptoms of Covid-19.
Worldwide meat production increased nearly 5 times in the second half of the 20th century, and the amount eaten per person doubled. Factory farms were established to maximise efficiency for a growing population and its meat demand. This, however, has led to increased interaction with animals which has resulted in a rising emergence of ”zoonotic” diseases passed from animals to humans, such as Swine Flu and Foot-and-Mouth . In fact, 60% of all infectious diseases are classed as zoonotic. Although the official source of Covid-19 is not confirmed, it is suspected that a bat was the first host, which may have then infected other live animals sold at the Wuhan market.
The Food and Agricultural Association of the UN forecasts a 70% increase in food production will be needed to feed a population of 9.1 billion by 2050.
Urbanisation
As the population grows, we require more land allocated to growing crops. Land use changes and increasing wealth has caused migration from rural to urban areas.
Urbanisation is largely a trend confined to the last 200 years. In 1800, over 90% of the population still lived in rural areas. Today, we have over half the population living in cities and this is expected to reach two thirds by 2050. However, the cities and towns we live in account for less than 3% of the Earth’s total land area, but between 35% and 40% is used for agriculture. High population densities hugely enhance transmission rates of infectious disease. Taking the US as an example, its densest city, New York City, has seen the highest number of deaths from Coronavirus and is responsible for over one third of the nation’s cases.
The pressured search for more food compromises the quality of farming methods and food that we produce. Industrial agricultural techniques needed to sustain production have left one third of the worlds soil degraded. This leaves us with even less fertile land, deepening our crisis and forcing migration as people move to more hospitable areas. According to the WHO, desertification increases atmospheric dust through wind erosion which can affect our health through respiratory diseases.
The “hygiene hypothesis” is the leading theory for increasing Asthma rates over the past few decades and is attributed to urbanisation, since children in urban areas are not exposed to the germs needed to develop their immune system. The coronavirus is particularly dangerous for those with respiratory problems as it can cause widespread inflammation in the lungs and stops the body from getting enough oxygen it needs to survive.
The Green Revolution
Malthus’ work has been discussed for two centuries and is often critiqued for underestimating technological innovation such as The Green Revolution of the 1960’s. The booming population problem was met with international adoption of new agricultural technologies to increase food production such as high yielding crops, irrigation systems and fertilisers. So why can’t we attempt this again?
The region of Punjab, known as “India’s Bread Basket”, was used by the government as a testing ground for new technologies and chemical fertilisers, due to its water supply and agricultural success. Punjab currently produces 20% of the nation’s wheat, 11% of its rice, and 11% of its cotton, from only 1.5% of its geographical area. These high yield crops once helped lift the country into a food surplus but fast forward to today and the picture is not so pretty.
Water resources are depleted and the extensive use of pesticides has contaminated both water and food supplies. Cancer rates are well above the national average and high farmer debt means suicide and drug abuse is rife.
As we embark upon the Green Revolution 2.0, we must ensure it is sustainable on our land, food systems and health.
In present day reality, Malthus’ theory relates directly to the diminishing quality of life we are seeing. High pressure on resources leads to a increased probability of prevalence of diseases whilst poorer health and urbanisation have contributed to the severity of impact we have seen Covid-19 take on our population. As a Malthusian Catastrophe approaches, I believe we will see further physical shocks, such as increasing natural disasters as a result of global warming. We have the capability to increase our resiliency, for example through localising business models, and to innovate the technology needed to solve our population crisis but it is imperative that we wake up and act now.
