Why Should We Not Rely on the 1.5 Degree Climate Target?
The Earth’s climate system is extremely sensitive to temperature fluctuations, and even a slight increase in temperature can have a significant influence. The consequences of global warming include but not limited to:
- Carbon dioxide emissions have risen dramatically in recent decades and the levels in the atmosphere have increased by more than 40% since pre-industrial times, according to NASA.
- 86% of land ecosystems all around the world are getting worse at soaking up the growing amount of CO2 in the air.
- More common and severe heat waves, droughts, floods, and wildfires.
- Sea level rise by about 20 cm (8 inches) since 1900, displacing millions and inundating coastal cities.
- Melting of the Arctic, causing ecosystem disruption and the release of methane, a strong greenhouse gas.
The objective of limiting global warming to a maximum of 1.5 °C is the prime focus of the Paris Agreement. This agreement mandates countries to take collaborative measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, thereby accomplishing the goal of reducing the phenomenon of global warming.
The question arises as to why this particular target necessitates a re-evaluation at this point in time?
Safe and just climate
As per a recent study conducted by an international science commission, there exist eight primary boundaries deemed as ‘safe and just’ for the planet. The aforementioned factors encompass climatic conditions, biotic diversity, potable water resources, and distinct pollution variants, namely atmospheric, terrestrial, and aquatic.
Earth Commission study provides a definition for the term “safe” that pertains to maintaining a state of stable, resilient, and biophysically sound conditions on Earth that have facilitated the prosperity of the human race. On the other hand, “just” is characterized as boundaries which bolster the diminishment of human exposure to critical harms.
We cannot have a biophysically safe planet without justice. This includes setting just targets to prevent significant harm and guarantee access to resources to people and for as well as just transformations to achieve those targets. Says co-author Joyeeta Gupta andCo-Chair of the Earth Commission.
According to this study, the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is deemed as “safe” and 1 degrees Celsius as “safe and just”. Therefore, the boundary of “just” appears to be more rational in nature.
El Niño event
El Niño and La Niña events typically occur naturally every 2 to 7 years, but not at consistent times. El Niño events happen more often than La Niña events. They are caused by changes in the ocean’s surface temperature and winds.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region. These changes in sea surface temperature can greatly affect the weather patterns all over the world. A new stage of El Niño has recently started and the heat could be stronger because of global warming. This could cause huge financial losses worldwide, amounting to $3 trillion. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we will likely see new records being set within the next five years.
According to Mark Maslin, professor of earth system science at University College London, within the next five years the extra warming that comes with El Niño events will temporally push the global climate over the 1.5C. It may then drop back below 1.5C, allowing climate change deniers to tell everyone the world is now cooling — as they always ignore the long-term trend. Global GHG emissions have yet to drop, and emissions in 2022 were the highest in human history. Hence the long-term warming trend will continue, and without emissions reduction we could pass 1.5C permanently in the next 10 years.
In conclusion, the 1.5°C climate target is no longer safe. We have already reached 1.2°C of warming, and the impacts are being felt around the world. The impacts on people and ecosystems are severe and are likely to become worse if we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible.
We must strengthen global commitments to decrease GHG emissions, focus on the transition towards a clean energy future and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. This is a huge concern because many countries still rely on fossil fuels as their primary source of energy. A huge investment in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, will be required to shift to a clean energy economy. As can be seen from picture below, 62% of CO2 comes from burning fossil fuels.
Changes will also be required in our transportation system, as well as in our homes and businesses. We must implement circular economy businesses and initiatives. The circular economy can make more efficient use of products and materials within crucial sectors such as cement, steel, plastic and aluminum, which could reduce 40% of global CO2 emissions . We must invest in measures to protect our coastal towns from flooding, as well as in more robust infrastructure and assistance to farmers in adapting to changing growing conditions.
Climate Solutions Library managed by Project Drawdown is examining 100 practices and technologies that have the potential to decrease the level of greenhouse gases present in the earth’s atmosphere.
We have solutions, we just need to take action!
