How does a quarterback’s performance in their last game affect their performance in the next game?
Let’s categorize quarterback performance into tiers
The tiers defined in the list below are approximately based on standard scoring point quantiles from 2018 data.
- Bad- 0–10
- Average- 10–15
- Good- 15–20
- Elite- 20+
The probability of quarterback performance tier in their next game (NG) given their performance tier in their last game (LG)
The table below can be read as follows: The row labels in the table represents quarterback performance from their last game (LG) while the columns represent projected performance in their next game (NG).
For example: If a QB was “Elite” last game, the probability of them performing “Elite” in their next game is 45%.
Key takeaways
- When a quarterback has an “Elite” performance, there is a 45% chance they will perform “Elite” in their next game
- When a quarterback has a “Bad” performance, there is a 56% chance they will perform “Good” or “Elite” in their next game
Daily fantasy sports strategy
Quarterback drafting strategy
Since quarterbacks tend to rebound after a “Bad” performance, a strategy worth looking into more is drafting quarterbacks that performed “Bad” last week but have a history of “Good” or “Elite” performances.
Wide receiver drafting strategy
In an earlier post, I talked about how quarterback performance affects wide receiver performance.
A key finding (albeit small sample size) was that WR2 performance given an “Elite” quarterback performance is in on par with WR1 performance given a “Good” quarterback performance.
A good strategy could be to draft low-cost wide receivers that have quarterbacks with a high probability for “Elite” performance in the next game.
If there are enough people interested, I could generate quarterback performance tiers each week and post them here.
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Originally published at gridironai.com.
