Fantasy Football: 2016 Year End Review
Is it August yet? It feels like it has been months since the Fantasy Football season as ended. It literally has been…
Before Free Agency and NFL Draft activities over saturate your news feeds, lets take a look at what we can learn from the 2016 fantasy season. Fantasy football, at its core, is about luck. It is impossible to predict the production that you will get out of any player in any given game. BUT! Yes, there is a but. But, you can put yourself in the best position to have more luck than your weekly rival.
The highest scoring players are those that are able to get the most production out of the most opportunities. So when looking back at the top 10 players below, it is important to embrace the idea of Expected Points Per Game (EPPG). This is a point calculation based on the average passing, rushing, and pass catching opportunities that a player received multiplied by their total production ratio resulting from those said opportunities.
Without getting too deep in the details, the below are top 12 rankings for a standard 6 points per passing touchdown and 0.5 points per reception leagues.
Analyzing this list you can come to the pretty quick realization that Rodgers was a monster, you wanted to own one of the top three running backs, and receiver and tight end do not really differentiate themselves. Remember this is an average. The Ceilings and and floors on any given week could resemble nothing close to their EPPG.
I will highlight a few surprises.
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins, top six EPPG QB. Whoa. Now, I am not a Cousins believer, but if I miss on Rodgers in 2017 drafts I can feel pretty comfortable waiting until I find value in any of these bottom-half of this list.
Running Back: THEO RIDDICK top ten running back everyone. Unlikely heroes, Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard, LaGarrette Blount are obvious, but Riddick making the list was surprising. This list will not even come close to my top 12 rankings come the start of the 2017 season, but if there was ever a sample to reference for taking numerous running back fliers its this one. Half of the top 12 list could have been drafted in the 8th round or even later.
Wide Receiver: The top six guys are who you would expect. Newcomer Michael Thomas is a stud in the volume heavy New Orleans passing attack which also featured fellow top 12 finished Brandin Cooks. Baldwin, Adams, and Crabtree are all examples of consistency over boom-bust potential. They would be safe picks next year if you miss out on a high-ceiling pass catcher in rounds one, two, or three.
Tight End: Sigh. Reed and Gronk were hurt for much of the year, so their EPPG may be deflated, but for the most part I am not touching a tight end early. Next year, I would rather take a high-upside flier like Jimmy Graham and play waiver-wire roulette at the position if needed.
If I am using 2016 as my template, my 2017 draft strategy for rounds one through three would be such:
Top of draft: RD 1 — Best Available Running Back, RD 2 — Best Available Receiver, RD 3 — Rodgers/Best Available Flex
Middle of Draft: RD 1 — Best Available Receiver, RD 2 — Best Available Receiver, RD 3 — Best Available Running Back
Bottom of Draft: RD 1 — Best Available Running Back, Best Available Receiver, Best Available Running Back
As they say in investing, past performance does not necessarily indicate future results. But a proven track-record can help sway our personal biases away or towards a player we were not, or should not be, considering.
