I have no idea what to do with the Nevada caucuses. Neither do presidential candidates.

Ground Game is James Pindell’s daily update on the presidential primary from the Boston Globe. You can sign up to receive it in your inbox here.

Every morning I write an email newsletter tasked with covering the first four states that, since 2008, have kick-started the presidential primary calendar: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. These states are sometimes dubbed “carve-out states” because both national parties have agreed to carve them out from the calendar and put them first.

Every morning, the newsletter provides an update of headlines and a flavor about what is happening in the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — but not Nevada. There is a reason: I have no idea what to do with Nevada. And judging by their schedules, the candidates are in a similar spot: They don’t know what to do with Nevada and have essentially stayed away. Even Nevadans are confused: They don’t know if they want to hold a primary or a caucus.

Yesterday, because no bill advanced, the Nevada Legislature will continue to host private party caucuses instead of a primary, over the wishes of the governor, the lieutenant governor, and many party leaders.

Now that Nevada will still have a caucus, it is unclear what the early contest will mean and who will decide to participate. Conventional wisdom suggests a caucus system will benefit US Senator Rand Paul’s organization, which took over the state party’s organization in recent years. But this theory doesn’t match with history: Mitt Romney, relying on his Mormon roots, won two Nevada caucuses. And in 2012, Ron Paul finished third behind Newt Gingrich, who has basically zero ties to the state and no organization there.

In other words: Who knows what Nevada will do? But the bigger question might be: Who cares what Nevada does? Consider the primary calendar as presidential campaigns are using it. Iowa goes first, then New Hampshire, and South Carolina, which may have their primary on the Saturday after New Hampshire or a week later. Then there is the North Carolina problem. North Carolina has tied their primary to the Tuesday after South Carolina. The Nevada Republican Party will have to decide whether to hold their caucus on the same day as North Carolina or the Saturday afterward.

Sure, North Carolina will be penalized by not having all their delegates count because they broke the RNC rules by jumping ahead of the “carve-out” states on the calendar. But possibly more delegates will likely be awarded to North Carolina even with a penalty than in Nevada. (Note: If the RNC follows their own rules it will be fewer, but some times they don’t follow their own rules.)

So it is entirely plausible that candidates will spend their time after New Hampshire in the south and skip the long flight west. For candidates like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio,and Scott Walker, it makes sense to spend February and March going from South Carolina to North Carolina to the SEC Super Tuesday primary states (headed up by Georgia), and then follow this up two weeks later by the major contest in Florida.

Right now, that is a better bet for the nomination than the odds in Vegas.

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