Twitter Has Already Lost
Quick Thoughts on Twitter, Threads, and Meta
Meta launched their Twitter competitor last week, called Threads.
It apparently broke signup records, reaching 100 million users in one week.
That’s not Twitter numbers, but it’s not far off.
Apparently, Twitter has around 330 million active monthly users but that seems high to me.
I haven’t used Threads personally, I barely ever log onto Facebook and I haven’t posted on Instagram in months.
So I’ll probably stick with Twitter.
But Threads has one massive advantage over Twitter: The Meta-verse.
I don’t mean the land behind the Oculus, even though Meta would love that.
But it’s the network effects of Facebook, plus Instagram, plus Whatsapp.
Threads can slide into that ecosystem and even if they stick 200 million users, let’s say 50 million of them never use Twitter again, and another 25 million lower their usage. That’s 75 million people.
I have no firm basis for those numbers. I’m speculating.
But it’s a drop in the Meta bucket and potentially crushing to Twitter.
Facebook Has Evolved
There was a time when Facebook seemed to be like Twitter. They were trying to promote news articles and that spun off the rails into further polarization.
But according to the Traffic book, Facebook was a huge source of shares for sites like Buzzfeed and other publishers. FB was trying to be in the Twitter conversation.
Maybe that was a stretch to begin with, and now it’s another thing — more like groups, marketplaces, and conspiracy theories.
So if Threads can reposition itself almost as the old Facebook plus Twitter within the Instagram ecosystem, then it has a different flavor.
It makes sense for Meta to launch Threads now, because just think about how *old* Twitter is, not just Facebook.
People coming of age in their college years may not have had personal experience with Twitter, but would enjoy the experience of “Twitter”. That’s a good bet — Twitter has been big and viable compared to most social networks or software products, but not Facebook big.
Twitter Killed Itself
Twitter has been notoriously bad in the pre-Elon era of not shipping anything new, and killing off its prime candidates for evolution: Periscope, Vine, others I probably don’t know about.
They have no other suite of products, so Meta can crush it if they want.
No More One-Size-Fits-All Social App
It also feels like the end of one big social app. We’re all retreating to our niches and preferred communities within an app. I use Twitter and LinkedIn a lot; the others not so much.
Everyone has their own personal combination and that’s the way it will be.
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