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Crypto Traders Can Now Profit Off BTC’s Volatility And Dominance

Manuel Pita
Aug 6, 2019 · 4 min read

Bitcoin’s price has recently hovered above $12,000 as part of a bull run following several days of intense upwards price action. It seems that the mother of all cryptos is consolidating its comeback year, and could be getting ready to challenge its 2019 peak of $13,800 reached earlier this June.

Given these numbers and taking a look at the charts, two indexes capture most of the attention from the trader crowd: volatility and dominance. Guesser is launching two prediction markets to let you trade forecasts on both!

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BTC Volatility

Those who have been lucky enough to be in this space for years know Bitcoin for what it is: one of the most volatile assets in the world. Last week, for example, BTC price found itself ranging between $9,500 and $12,200 — amazing volatility for any given asset. In addition, days such as June 26 set the record for impressive performances, as Bitcoin reached its 2019 high and the Bitcoin Volatility Index started to skyrocket.

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The Bitcoin Volatility Index over the last month | Source: Bitvol.info

As usual, at Guesser we wanted to bring to life markets on the financial trends that most interest our users, so starting this week you can find a weekly BTC Volatility market on our site. This week’s “Will the 30-Day BTC/USD Volatility be between 5% and 6% on August 11?” is ready for you to place your predictions on the Bitcoin Volatility Index.

At the time of writing, participants in the event are giving a 46% chance to this 30-Day BTC/USD Volatility being in that range by the end of the week. In other words, you can make around 1.8x if your forecast is that the index will be neither less than 5% nor greater than 6%. If your opinion is the it will be inside the range, you can make over 2x. Currently similar odds that could change a lot as the week goes by.

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Implied probability of the Volatility range following user predictions in the Guesser market

This BTC Volatility Index is not open for trades in any other exchange we’re aware of — which makes this Guesser prediction market a unique way to invest in one of the hottest indicators in crypto.

BTC Dominance

There are now more than 2.4k cryptocurrencies, and that’s just according to Coinmarketcap. In the wild west of price ups and downs, one could think BTC’s dominance (the ratio of its market cap compared to the aggregated market cap of the rest of the coin market) would be falling fast. Nothing could be further from the truth!

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Bitcoin Dominance (%) evolution throughout 2019 | Source: TradingView

Bitcoin Dominance has risen from 53% at the start of 2019 to being at 69.5% over the last couple of days, reaching highs not seen since the times of 2017 ICO mania. This is a very relevant indicator of the strength of the coin relative to the broader crypto market. Some argue that macro factors like the Fed rate cut, the trade war on China or economic sanctions in the middle east could be helping position the asset as a growing safe haven for investors.

All this means Guesser users have constantly asked to be able to trade predictions on the bitcoin dominance index — so here’s the good news! We’re launching a weekly BTC Dominance market, with this week’s market letting you predict whether it will be between 67% and 70% by the end of Sunday. Traders are now only 42% confident it will — are you?

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Implied probability of the Dominance range following user predictions in the Guesser market

Bitcoin is one of a kind. It is the world’s best performing asset of the last decade with returns of over 70,000x, the most dominant cryptocurrency since its inception more than 10 years ago, and a uniquely volatile asset when measured by any metric.

Its Dominance and Volatility are two highly relevant characteristics, and you can now profit off predicting their performance. As Guesser grows and more currencies are built into the platform (currently only accepting ETH) anyone in crypto will be able to participate in these forecasts, something we hope makes these two weekly markets a reference in the space.

And even now that you can only wager ETH, is there a better way to use it? Make sure to join us!

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Cowritten with Jose Garay

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