New Odds Types On Guesser — How Each One Works
Different views, same payouts
As you may have noticed, starting today Guesser is introducing two new odds formats: Probability (Cents) and American (Moneyline), in addition to the Decimal (European) format that has been used until now. They are simply different ways of presenting the same possible outcomes and make no difference in terms of your possible payout if your bet is right.
If you are a regular user, don’t worry: this does not imply any change in the way the markets work. If you’re comfortable with decimal odds, you can continue to interpret the chances of an outcome happening and its corresponding payout that way. Anyhow, we invite you to take a look at this brief explanation — maybe one of these new formats will make it easier for you to place your wagers.
Let’s dive into the details!
Probability Odds
Betting odds represent the chance market participants are giving an event to happen — its probability. In any event, each possible outcome has a different probability of occurring. Odds are just a numerical interpretation of those probabilities.
The Guesser market “UK General Election: Overall Majority of Parliament Seats?” is giving, at the time of writing, a 67% chance to Conservatives of obtaining a Parliamentary majority in the December 12th general election.
Let’s say you predict Conservatives will obtain a majority, so you bet on the outcome ‘Conservatives Majority’.
The payout using probability odds is calculated assigning a potential 100% odds to an outcome that has finally happened. As you can see in the screenshot, the precise odds for Conservatives are 67.07 % (67% when rounded).
Assuming your stake is, for example, $200, your payout resolves:
[ $ Bet * (100 / Probability Odds) = $ Payout ]
$200 * (100/67.07) = $298 payout
The payout includes your original stake, so your profits would be
$298 - $200 = $98 profit
Keep in mind that once you access the market form the home page, the initial probability percentage symbol (%) turns into cents (¢), but the odds keep working in EXACTLY the same way.
This format should help users used to “stock-type” trading systems like PredictIt understand the odds of these outcomes in a simpler way.
A 100% probability percentage is equal to 100¢ value. If you bet $200 on Trump being re-elected at odds 25¢ and he wins, you’ll 4x your money —simple! If you decide to cash out early because odds have moved to 50¢, you would have doubled your money before the election even happened.
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds (also known as European odds, Digital odds or Continental odds) are popular mostly in Europe, Australia and Canada.
This format represents the amount one wins for every dollar bet. The bigger decimal odds an outcome has the lower the probability that it will happen and the larger possible payout. If an outcome is at odds 1.5, you will 1.5x your money if that outcome wins.
[ $ Bet * Decimal Odds = $ Payout ]
Example 1
- $100 bet
- Odds 2.5
- Payout = $100 * 2.5 = $250
Example 2
- $500 bet
- Odds 3.7
- Payout = $500 * 3.7 = $1.850
Following the example of betting for a ‘Conservatives Majority’, which is currently at odds 1.49, if we assume your bet is $200, your payout resolves:
$200 * 1.49 = $298 payout
Remember, the payout includes your original bet, so your profits would be
$298.2 - $200 = $98 profit
American Odds
American odds (also known as Moneyline odds or US odds), as it’s not very difficult to guess, are popular mostly in the United States.
This format is expressed with either a positive or a negative number. Keep in mind American Odds formulas calculate profits, NOT payouts like we’ve done in the two previous formats.
➖ The odds for favorites (most probable) are accompanied by a minus (-) sign, indicating the amount you need to bet to win a $100 PROFIT.
Odds -450: You need to bet $450 to win a $100 profit (total payout would be $550)
➕ The odds for underdogs (less probable) are accompanied by a positive (+) sign, indicating the PROFIT you would win for every $100 bet.
Odds +670: You need to bet $100 to win a $670 profit (total payout would be $770)
It’s important to understand that you don’t need to bet the amount exactly equal to the money line (first $100 and then $450 in the previous examples). You can bet more or less as you wish, with the possible returns growing or decreasing proportionally to your stake.
If you’re betting $200 on a ‘Conservatives Majority’, which in this format is at -204 odds (favorite), your profits would be:
[ Bet / (Negative American Odds / 100) = PROFIT ]
$200 / (204 / 100) = $ 98 profit
Otherwise, if you want to bet $300 on a ‘No Overall Majority’, which is at +210 odds (underdog), your profits would be:
[ Bet * (Positive American Odds / 100) = PROFIT ]
$300 * (210 / 100) = $630 profit
This is all! Remember that although you can now choose the odds you feel more comfortable with to bet, all three formats represent the same probability of an event occurring but in different visual ways. As you have seen in all these examples, the payout does not change from one odds format to another.
We hope this post has been helpful. Now you’re better suited than ever to make your predictions through Guesser. Good luck!
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Cowritten with Jose Garay
