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People Are Making Surprising Predictions For The Second Democratic Debate

Manuel Pita
Jul 29, 2019 · 3 min read
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It has been a crucial summer for the next 2020 US Presidential Election and at Guesser we’ve taken the opportunity to offer some of the most exciting markets for users to predict. With the second Democratic debate just around the corner, forecasts of what might happen are still quite divided.

Twenty presidential candidates, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and the popular entrepreneur Andrew Yang will face off in the second-round of primary debates this week, concretely on both July 30 and July 31 nights.

Debate Night #1: Warren vs. Sanders

Tuesday’s debate will be highly influenced by the face-to-face between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Being on stage together for the first time will give the two progressive favorite candidates the chance to differentiate their policies as they discuss on issues such healthcare, their plans for free college and eliminating student debt.

The Guesser market “Will Elizabeth Warren Poll Higher than Bernie Sanders by the end of August 5th?” asks a question about their RCP Average score and lets users predict which candidate will do better in the polls after the debate.

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At the time of writing, participants in the market are giving a 65.5% chance to Warren of overtaking Sanders by that time. This means that if your prediction is that Warren will overtake Sanders you can make ~1.5x on your investment, and if you think she won’t, you can make ~2.3x.

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Debate Night #2: #LetYangSpeak?

Andrew Yang had a rough first Debate, being the candidate who spoke for the least time of all contenders. While some attributed this to a lack of previous political experience, the candidate went on to say that his mic had been turned off at times during the night, a move that ignited great controversy online, with many of his supporters using the hashtag #LetYangSpeak to express their anger. An NBC spokesman later denied Yang’s claim.

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If you want to add some skin in the game to the night’s Twitter action, the current Guesser event “Will Andrew Yang Speak for 5 Minutes or More at the 2nd Democratic Debate?” allows you to predict how much speaking time Yang will enjoy on July 31st.

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Current market probabilities suggest a much tighter fifty-fifty chance of the candidate speaking for 5 minutes or longer in the second debate, with the latest trade predicting it is 48.75% likely to happen. This means you can get a similar return on both outcomes. Pick your side!

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