Find out more about the U.S. election results here.

People Are Making Surprising Predictions For The Second Democratic Debate

Manuel Pita
Jul 29, 2019 · 3 min read
Image for post
Image for post

It has been a crucial summer for the next 2020 US Presidential Election and at Guesser we’ve taken the opportunity to offer some of the most exciting markets for users to predict. With the second Democratic debate just around the corner, forecasts of what might happen are still quite divided.

Twenty presidential candidates, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and the popular entrepreneur Andrew Yang will face off in the second-round of primary debates this week, concretely on both July 30 and July 31 nights.

Debate Night #1: Warren vs. Sanders

Tuesday’s debate will be highly influenced by the face-to-face between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Being on stage together for the first time will give the two progressive favorite candidates the chance to differentiate their policies as they discuss on issues such healthcare, their plans for free college and eliminating student debt.

The Guesser market “Will Elizabeth Warren Poll Higher than Bernie Sanders by the end of August 5th?” asks a question about their RCP Average score and lets users predict which candidate will do better in the polls after the debate.

Image for post
Image for post

At the time of writing, participants in the market are giving a 65.5% chance to Warren of overtaking Sanders by that time. This means that if your prediction is that Warren will overtake Sanders you can make ~1.5x on your investment, and if you think she won’t, you can make ~2.3x.

Image for post
Image for post

Debate Night #2: #LetYangSpeak?

Andrew Yang had a rough first Debate, being the candidate who spoke for the least time of all contenders. While some attributed this to a lack of previous political experience, the candidate went on to say that his mic had been turned off at times during the night, a move that ignited great controversy online, with many of his supporters using the hashtag #LetYangSpeak to express their anger. An NBC spokesman later denied Yang’s claim.

Image for post
Image for post

If you want to add some skin in the game to the night’s Twitter action, the current Guesser event “Will Andrew Yang Speak for 5 Minutes or More at the 2nd Democratic Debate?” allows you to predict how much speaking time Yang will enjoy on July 31st.

Image for post
Image for post

Current market probabilities suggest a much tighter fifty-fifty chance of the candidate speaking for 5 minutes or longer in the second debate, with the latest trade predicting it is 48.75% likely to happen. This means you can get a similar return on both outcomes. Pick your side!

Thank you for reading! You can also:

🔮 Visit our website
🐤 Follow us on Twitter
🙌 Join our Discord chat
✉️ Get in touch

Guesser

Home to the world’s largest political markets.

Medium is an open platform where 170 million readers come to find insightful and dynamic thinking. Here, expert and undiscovered voices alike dive into the heart of any topic and bring new ideas to the surface. Learn more

Follow the writers, publications, and topics that matter to you, and you’ll see them on your homepage and in your inbox. Explore

If you have a story to tell, knowledge to share, or a perspective to offer — welcome home. It’s easy and free to post your thinking on any topic. Write on Medium

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store