Predictions Favor Warren Over Sanders As The Progressive Democratic Candidate
Betting markets see Warren as Biden’s top challenger for the Democratic Nomination
Less than two years from the 2020 US presidential election, one of the most anticipated of the last decades, the Democratic presidential race began with the largest and most diverse pool of candidates in United States history. The field has been reduced from 27 to 18, and will continue to shrink as the race heats up.
So far, Democrats have held four national televised debates in which the numbers of participants have been defined according to the polls results. 9 candidates have met the requirements in order to qualify for the November debate at the moment, according to Politico’s Democratic primary poll tracker. There will be no room for many more, given the new, stricter requirements the Democratic National Committee has recently unveiled.
However, the new entries or exits of the ‘fortunate’ ones that may be part of the coming debates are of little importance if one takes a look at the main polls’ data. Currently, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders add up to more than 70% of the Democratic primary vote intention, which means that the chance for one of those three to be Trump’s rival in 2020 is really high.
We are going to use the Morning Consult’s poll as the focus of our Democratic primary data. This research company works with The New York Times, Bloomberg or Politico and surveys more than 5,000 registered voters across the country every day. Then it publishes one week’s worth of responses from registered voters who intend to vote in the Democratic primary. The latest survey data on the page, updated on October 28, shows Biden as the clear frontrunner, with a double digit advantage over his main opponents. As you can see in the historical charts that are also provided on the web, this lead has been a constant since the beginning of the year, having been above 30% most of the time.
Democratic Debates: Warren vs Sanders
Biden is the favorite candidate now — there’s no doubt Democratic voters are seeing him as the ‘most electable’ person so far. Not only Morning Consult, but most of the relevant polls give him a clear lead. So the key question now is: who will enter the final battle for the party’s nomination in 2020 with him? The last Morning Consult survey sets a tie between Sanders and Warren, with 20% of the votes each one. The key point in the November and December debates will be the two most progressive candidates having no choice but to confront opinions, something both have largely avoided during the campaign trail. Get ready for an end of the year that will be absolutely decisive for the fate of the 2020 Democratic Nomination.
Forecasts of what might happen are totally divided, and politics bettors are placing their predictions on this exciting events. The Guesser market ‘Will Elizabeth Warren be polling over Bernie Sanders by the end of November according to Morning Consult?’ lets users predict which candidate will do better in the poll after next month’s crucial debate, scheduled for Nov 20th.
The recently launched betting market is starting with a 60% chance of Warren overtaking Sanders by that time. This means that if your prediction is that she will poll over Bernie you can make 1.64x on your money, and if you are long Bernie you can make 2.15x.
2 Progressives, 2 Policies?
What are these left-wing candidates that “terrify” most moderate Democrats really proposing?
Bernie Sanders served as US representative for 16 years before being elected to the Senate in 2006, where he currently represents the state of Vermont. His democratic socialist platform gained significant traction during the 2016 primaries, when the senator ran against Hillary Clinton. Sander’s proposals include canceling all student loan debt, free public colleges, a $15 minimum hourly wage and universal healthcare. He benefits from strong name recognition and a robust network of small-dollar donors, helping him raise $5.9m during his first day in the race, and $25.3m in the third quarter of 2019.
Elizabeth Warren has served as a US senator from Massachusetts since 2013. She is a leader of the party’s liberals and a fierce Wall Street and Big Tech critic who was instrumental in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Warren’s recently unveiled a student loan forgiveness proposal that would cancel up $50,000 of debt for millions of US citizens. She also supports free college tuition for students at two and four-year institutions.
From criminal justice to foreign affairs, the truth is that policy skirmishes between Sanders and Warren have touched on nearly every big topic in the primary and broadened the debate among Democrats. For instance, along with Sanders, several candidates endorsed the idea of a wealth tax or said they were open to it after Warren rolled out hers. Two weeks ago, after Sanders called for universal school meals, Warren proposed forgiving K-12 student breakfast and lunch debt.
Warren’s Comeback
Both Sanders and Warren have used their liberal plans to elevate their options at critical moments in their campaigns, but here Warren has undoubtedly emerged victorious.
In late April, just when pundits were writing her off for dead at the beginning of the primary, the Massachusetts senator released her student debt cancellation plan, being this Warren story that generated most interactions on social media this year, according to data provided by Axios — Warren started outflanking Sanders and became the progressive favorite in the race.
Between the last week of February and April 21, Warren’s RealClearPolitics polling average dipped from 8.3% to 6%. Over that period, Sanders jumped from 18% to 22%. But since then, trends totally changed as Warren’s percentages increased for the first time and Sanders numbers began to fall. Thus began a battle for the Democratic’s left that stretches on these days, with a tie in the polls.
It should be added that at the time, Sanders had said he would “substantially lower” or “eliminate” student debt, but didn’t revealed a specific proposal until June, a time when some felt he had arrived late to the story.
Sanders’ allies argue that he was the original candidate who transformed the debate in the Democratic Party by popularizing Medicare for All, free college education and the minimum wage in his 2016 campaign. Warren’s supporters similarly say that she took the first step on student loan debt cancellation plans.
Some moderate candidates criticize Sanders and Warren’s proposals as unrealizable and politically damaging. On the other hand, left-wing activists see 2020 as the first presidential race in years where two true progressives are taking part and creating a healthy competition like the party has never seen before.
The last two debates of 2019 will be a head to head clash between the two candidates best positioned to take Joe Biden’s spot as the favorites for the 2020 Democratic Nomination. Now it’s your chance to predict the winner!
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