Rationalizing The 2017 Bitcoin Price Rally To $10,000
Edit: DBZ pictures taken from the video: Bitcoin 10k — Users vs FUD.
Don’t buy Bitcoin, because it’s gonna crash. I’m not selling, though. I’m all in and will be for the foreseeable future, because it’s changing the World. I can tolerate going homeless overnight. If you are the same, you are free to dismiss my first advice.
It’s All Over 2013 Again
In 2013, during the last Bitcoin rally, the price of Bitcoin went from $200 to over $1,000. Then it got crashed. And the price was kept down around $200 to $300 for years.
Notice I wrote: “it got crashed”, instead of it crashed and “it was kept down”, instead of “it stayed down”? This is what my article will be about.
2014— Market Crash
Often, when the price of a commodity suddenly shots to the Moon, some negative events trigger it to fall back to Earth. This was no different for Bitcoin. First China banned Bitcoin the first time, then MtGox collapsed.
I’m curious how long that rally would had taken without major negative triggers.
The following years the price of Bitcoin attempted some weak moonshots, but a new problem had emerged. The scaling problem. Obviously the problem was not new for developers, but it was new for the market. And the way the issues were presented was absolutely the most catastrophic way possible. It brought attention to developer infighting on the block size issue. Economists, CEOs and other mainstream Bitcoiners joined to the fight and by the time developer consensus was reached, the mainstream crowd was already invested emotionally into one side or another, that, only the formalization of a community split was able to partially resolve this infighting.
That being said, during this period Bitcoin exchanges, darknet markets and mixers were dropping like flies. The answer to the question: “is your exchange going to exit scam?” was not an if, but a when.
2016: The Rising Price
About one or two years ago the price slowly started to rise. What? Seriously? We have all these problems, we are not ready for mainstream, don’t you dare to rise now, motherfucker! But it did. It stopped staying low anymore. People want Bitcoin, just that’s the way it is.
The 2013 rally was crashed by external factors and the price was kept down for years by internal infighting, while the bad news did not stop and the future direction of Bitcoin was still unclear, the general negativity was not able to keep up the downward pressure on the price.
BCH was born, Segregated Witness activated and 2X fork was recalled. But what it really means is: the uncertainty about the future direction of Bitcoin cleared up.
Of course the infighting did not disappear, but that’s not the point. Let me tell you something to think about:
In football, one bad strategy is vastly superior, if all 11 players are committed to it, than 11 good strategy, where every players follow their own.
Briefly that’s what happened. We found our strategy, committed ourselves to it, whoever did not want to participate capitulated to BCH, the outside world sensed the changing sentiment and gifted us with a moonshot.
This might be the reason why we have the price at $11,000 now, but it’s also plausible that people just wanted to see someone eat his dick.
Update: He indeed ate his dick. Please consider it twice, before watching it. It’s bloody.