Published in


The Four Stages of the Tech Hype Cycle

  1. Low-level noise — The first step in any tech hype cycle is the low-level noise. This noise is almost imperceptible at first — think about the first Linux conversations you had or when you first heard about bitcoin — and only the die-hards (and most abrasive) fans stick by the technology. They will talk about it endlessly and it will have very little bearing on the outside world. We are at this stage in the token sale hype cycle but we are swiftly moving into the next one…
  2. Explosion — Explosions can be good or bad. Some explosions clear out old crud and FUD and some explosions destroy a company. I remember a few of these in the hardware space including the death of the Palm Pre and the Notion Ink Atom. Companies and products that don’t survive the explosion will not make it to the next round…
  3. General Buzz — In this stage everyone is in on the joke. Folks talk about the tech in taxis and in airport lounges. Your parents send news clippings about it. Technologies that reach this stage begin accreting traditions, guidelines, and large companies that serve the adherents. In short, things are about to get boring.
  4. The Boring Years — Think about Linux. Ten years ago Linux was a revolutionary tool. Today it’s something you spin up in five minutes when you want to host a website. This is where token sales and all crypto is headed and all of the early hot-heads will end up with cushy jobs in banks where they can’t do too much damage. Things coast along from there into eternity.



Elijah McClain, George Floyd, Eric Garner, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, Michael Brown, Oscar Grant, Atatiana Jefferson, Tamir Rice, Bettie Jones, Botham Jean

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store