Hakka Intelligence
A collective prediction platform for the Hakka community.
Many of you might have heard of prediction markets, which leverage market mechanisms to predict “the future” of something. Prediction markets are most commonly used to predict election results, economic indexes, and stock prices.
Most of the prediction markets are option-based markets. People buy or sell options depending on the current market price and the “actual” price they predict. For binary outcome, the call/put price represents the likelihood of whether things would happen.
Hakka Intelligence is a similar platform but incorporates a slightly different mechanism. Instead of buying a call or put option at a certain price, you “submit” your answer to participate, and the payoff is determined by a score of how precise your prediction is.
Given a portfolio of a set of assets, we’d like to know the price changes from now to, let’s say, one month later. Price changes will affect each asset's percentage, and the percentage is what we want to predict. So, besides the absolute price, we care more about the relative changes.
Each participant should submit a set of numbers, with the score being determined by the inner product of their submissions and the actual outcome. While people submit their predictions, they need to “stake” some coins as well. Since you’ll receive rewards proportionate to your score, you will make a profit as long as your score is above average; otherwise, generate a loss.
Ultimately, this seems to be a zero-sum game. But an operator can provide a dummy stake(sponsor) to make it a positive-sum game and attract external participants. By doing so, the operator can further turn the platform semi-private, where the submissions are invisible to the public before the due date. That then gives the operator valuable insight.
Back to Hakka Finance, one of the most frequently discussed topics is staking. In my opinion, the concept of staking tokens to earn more tokens than those staked makes no sense since it creates no value and worsens the liquidity.
Holding tokens for a long time doesn’t mean you deserve to earn more. In fact, what it usually indicates is a lack of knowledge of understanding how to best value your tokens. Instead of blindly distributing the tokens to whoever is already holding a large amount, I believe we should go for the strategy of distributing tokens to the right group of people.
Regarding Hakka Intelligence being a fun game or not is largely subjective, but it is certainly a great alternative to dumb inflation rewards. In terms of reward design, a positive return can be expected, but not guaranteed. The word “stake” means you bet on something; it’s a bet, not a risk-free interest.
Building a strong community is essential for a decentralized finance organization’s long term success. I’d like to suggest that instead of passively waiting around for random capital to be introduced into our system and potentially influence our actions, I suggest we go for a more proactive approach, shaping the community by ourselves. We are the community.
The Hakka community is about empowering Hakka believers to achieve. If we would like to attract people with great insights over people with loads of money, we must build a system that would work for the great insightful minds — a system that will facilitate people with great insights to become the majority.
The first version of Hakka Intelligence will be price prediction of major crypto assets. The initial weight is going to be the same(i.e., same market value). And it will use Chainlink’s price feed as the oracle.
