Israel’s Security: Getting Your Enemies to Fight Each Other
Who are the biggest enemies of the state of Israel? Israel’s leaders and military must have been greatly alarmed when the Arab Spring took place. The entire Middle East region plunged into political turmoil and has radically altered Israel’s security environment to this day. There are plenty of bad guys in the countries surrounding Israel: Assad, ISIS, Iran, and Hezbollah, to name a few. And they happen to be fighting each other. Who are then Israel’s main enemies? Which one of the groups poses the greatest threat to Israel’s national security?
As I sat listening to the many speakers discussing security issues, I thought to myself that it should be in Israel’s national interest to keep ISIS fighting Assad and Iraq. A viable ISIS would continue to distract Iran and challenge its power. Since Iran as a regional hegemon would pose an existential threat to Israel and a more powerful Assad regime would threaten Israel, not to mention Israel’s fear of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, wouldn’t it make sense for Israel to support ISIS? Or at least keep ISIS afloat in the region to fight against Shiite influence?
I asked this question to Dan Meridor, a former Deputy Prime Minister and a former Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy. “Does ISIS pose a threat or a strategic opportunity to Israel?” He gave a rather ambiguous answer. “ISIS is not an easy question,” I remember him saying. At first this was surprising to me, as someone who has only seen ISIS as evil incarnate. Meridor went on and told us that Israel would have to judge how much of a danger ISIS would constitute in the security environment. This answer was in stark contrast with much of the rhetoric found in other Western countries, which have called for the defeat and destruction of ISIS. He was acknowledging the potential strategic value of ISIS as the enemy of your enemy. This, I think, is a very logical conclusion and one that should occupy the minds of Israel’s policymakers.
Of course, it does not follow that Israel should in any way seek an alliance with ISIS or anything. Israel will remain very wary of Salafi-jihadism, mindful of the fact that ISIS could easily turn against it and unleash brutality against it. Israel will continue to be on guard against any radical elements, including both ISIS and Hezbollah (speakers hinted that “measures” were being taken to prevent weapons from getting into the wrong hands like Hezbollah).
But meanwhile, as civil wars continue to drag on in Syria and Iraq and involve Iranian intervention, we can also expect to see Israel trying to utilize the strategic value in ISIS and use it to their advantage. If they can somehow push ISIS to fight a grinding, stalemated war with Iraq, Syria, and Iran, policymakers in Israel would not be too unhappy.
