Forget the Forest and Focus on the Trees
The case against viewing the NBA on a macro-level starts and ends with the wide open MVP race
Warriors versus Cavs: The Trilogy.
For all of you bitching about the predictability and lack of parity in the NBA — just shut the hell up! Are you seriously complaining about getting to watch LeBron James take on Kevin Durant and Steph Curry — 3 of the greatest 25 players to ever touch a basketball — an extra 7 times in June? You should be locked up and forced to watch Thursday Night Football on repeat for the rest of eternity. For goodness’ sake, appreciate greatness when it is right in front of you.
The general public has been brainwashed by Roger Goodell into believing that parity in professional sports is more important than the product being put out on the field/court. In reality, the product that the NFL is putting out on the field this season is hot garbage. The product that the NBA will put out on the court this season is the polar opposite.
If you are a fan who is viewing the NBA on a macro-level to the point where you cannot get excited for the regular season because there are 2 teams that are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league, then you are missing out on everything that makes being an NBA fan so fun. Need something on the micro-level to get excited about? Allow me to educate you about this season’s Most Valuable Player race . . . . . .
This season’s NBA MVP race will be absolutely fascinating. There has not been a race this wide open in a long, long time — maybe ever. The 2016–17 NBA season will likely feature 10+ future Hall-of-Fame players who are still firmly in or just entering their respective primes. Just think about all the star power in the league right now — LeBron, Curry, Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Kawhi, CP3, Blake Griffin & Davis. Want me to keep going? Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Damian Lillard, Carmelo Anthony, Boogie Cousins, Draymond Green & Klay Thompson. Had enough? Karl Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Kristaps Porzingis — okay, I’ll stop.
Any of the aforementioned players has enough talent to be the best player on the court on any given night. This means that whoever wants to win the MVP this season cannot afford to mail-in games, especially against another potential MVP candidate — the MVP will have to bring it every single night.
Now, just because the NBA is loaded with guys in or entering their primes, doesn’t necessarily mean that the MVP race will be wide open. Think back to the early-to-mid 90s a/k/a The Golden Age of Big Men. The league had a TON of future Hall-of-Fame forwards and centers who were all in their respective primes — Olajuwon, Robinson, O’Neal, Malone, Barkley, Ewing, etc. However, a guy named Michael Jeffrey Jordan (ever heard of him?) happened to also be playing in the NBA at the same time. Thus, the MVP race was always going to start (and often end) with MJ. Unlike some of the top players in today’s NBA, Jordan didn’t have a teammate that would steal votes from him (Pippen was clearly Robin to Jordan’s Batman) and didn’t have a foil at the same position in the league to challenge him — Clyde Drexler tried to assume that role for a minute, but we all know how that turned out for him. Therefore, even when the league had a similar amount of talent, there was still a clear pecking order in the MVP race every year — MJ and then everyone else.
Outside of the peak-Jordan years, most years there are about 4 or 5 guys who have a legitimate chance to win MVP going into the season — the incumbent MVP and a couple other superstars in their prime. By December, maybe 2 other players emerge as Dark Horse candidates — a rising star who makes The Leap (think Anthony Davis in 2014–15) and/or a veteran who was returning from injuries the season before or needed a change of scenery (think Steve Nash his first season in Phoenix). Therefore, MVP voters only really have to keep their eyes on 5 or 6 players for the NBA’s most prestigious individual award.
This year is different though. While there are still a handful of players that are in a whole different stratosphere than the rest of the NBA — LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant — each of those players could easily finish outside the top-3 in MVP voting for various reasons. LeBron might spend the entire season in cruise-control to rest up for a historic 7th straight run to the NBA finals. On the other hand, Curry and Durant have joined forces and thus, may cannibalize each other’s votes or simply may not receive proper MVP consideration due to certain voters’ disdain for Super Teams.
Chomping at the bit behind LeBron, Curry and Durant, are a second tier of superstars entering or in the midst of their respective primes — guys like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, etc. — and cagey veteran superstars at the tail-end of their primes — Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony. Every guy in the second tier has a unique skill set or role on his team that could propel him into MVP talks.
Finally, there is the third, and most exciting tier — The Leap candidates. This tier is chalked full of players that are extremely talented and will someday be superstar players in the NBA — we just don’t know when that someday will be. The when season = The Leap. The obvious candidates this season are Karl Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. I’m also going to add Andrew Wiggins into this category (T’Wolves fans have to be absolutely giddy about the future right now).
I was able to “whittle” the MVP candidates down to 12 players who could legitimately win the MVP award this season. However, because I’m a nerd, I had to give y’all my thoughts about the players that almost made the cut. So, without further ado, here’s your complete guide to the 2016–17 MVP race (Bovada MVP prop bets):
ALMOST HONORABLE MENTIONS
These guys won’t win the MVP, but could garner some MVP points (MVP voters submit a top-5: 1st (10 pts); 2nd (7 pts); 3rd (5 pts); 4th (3pts); 5th (1 pt)). In no particular order:
Dwight Howard (+20000) & Paul Millsap (NR)
- For some good Dwight Howard perspective, read this article by Jason Concepcion. If Dwight adjusts to the Hawks style of play, Millsap will continue to flourish and it could be a very nice season in the ATL. If the Hawks have to adjust to Howard, the wheels could come off early.
Jimmy Butler (+10000) & Dwyane Wade (+10000)
- The Bulls are a bizarrely built team that does not appear to understand the spacing trends in modern-NBA offenses. At the same time, when healthy, Butler and Wade are both unique talents that can win games entirely by themselves.
Kyle Lowry (+6600) & Al Horford (NR)
- Odds are that the Raptors or Celtics finish 2nd in the East. At least 1 of these 2 guys will get a couple shout-out 4th or 5th place votes.
Carmelo Anthony (+3300) & Kristaps Porzingis (+30000)
- This Knicks Super Team is going to be a train wreck unless both of these dudes play like fringe-MVP candidates.
Draymond Green (+6000) & Klay Thompson (NR)
- These MVP odds should be switched — on offense, Durant can do everything that Draymond does, only better. Barring an injury, I cannot see Draymond approaching anything close to the offensive production he had last season. Klay, on the other hand, “isn’t sacrificing shit” and could lead the Warriors in scoring.
DeMarcus Cousins (+4000) & John Wall (+6000)
- Both of these talented Wildcats could be fringe MVP candidates in the right situation. Unfortunately, Cousins has to deal with the worst ownership/management in the NBA and Wall’s often injured running-mate, Bradley Beal, has yet to prove he can be the #2 guy on a good team.
Legit Honorable Mentions
If everything goes right for these guys, they could end up finishing in the top-5 of the MVP vote, but won’t win the MVP. In no particular order:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+4000)
- The Greek Freak is posed to make The Leap this season as Jason Kidd and the Bucks plan to play him at point guard — a decision that will lead to plenty of exciting/insane plays (see below).
- Unfortunately, Point Giannis likely won’t lead to enough wins for the Bucks. Cute sleeper pick, but I’d hold off on betting on this guy until next season.
Damian Lillard (+3300)
- As he showed in the playoffs, Video Game Dame does NOT back down from anyone. He is essentially a lower-middle class version of Steph Curry (which is by no means an insult). There will be a handful of games where he will be the best player in the world for that night. He’s also an rapper!
- If everything went right for the Blazers this season, Dame could definitely finish 4th or 5th in the MVP race. However, because he is defensively challenged, that is probably his ceiling.
Andrew Wiggins (+12500)
- Look at what Jimmy Butler developed into under Coach Tom Thibodeau. Wiggins is every bit as talented as Butler and even more athletic. He has not put it all together like Butler has at this point in his career, but you can absolutely see all of the makings of a superstar in Wiggins.
- Wiggins is in a great position to make The Leap this season and challenge for a spot on an All-NBA team. However, if there is a player on the T’Wolves that could win the MVP this season it is Karl Anthony Towns.
The Real MVP Candidates
I legitimately believe that any one of these next 12 guys could win the MVP this season.
12) Anthony Davis (+1000)
Scenario where he wins: Remember when Davis dropped a 24p/10r/2a/3b/1.5s stat line with a 30.8 PER stat line in 2014–15? That was one of the greatest statistical seasons of all-time. He was only 22 at the time. Clearly, he has MVP ability. If he could somehow get this Pelicans team to a 4 seed, he deserves MVP.
Biggest obstacle: Injuries and the Pelicans’ crappy roster.
Should you bet on it: I would stay away from this one. Odds are pretty bad when you consider that Harden, Durant and Kawhi all have the same MVP odds as Davis.
11) Kyrie Irving (+3300)
Scenario where he wins: LeBron will look like a prophet if playoff-Kyrie ever shows up for an entire season. Playoff-Kyrie is one of the most aesthetically-pleasing basketball players ever. Playoff-Kyrie can hang 50 points on anyone. Playoff-Kyrie can play acceptable defense. Playoff-Kyrie for 70–75 regular season games wins the MVP.
Biggest obstacle: Regular season-Kyrie plays zero defense.
Should you bet on it: Depends on whether you think LeBron will coast this regular season or not. If LeBron does coast, these odds become more enticing.
10) Chris Paul (+3300)
9) Blake Griffin (+3300)
Scenario where one of them wins: CP3 & Blake will need to lead the Clippers to a top-2 seed in the Western Conference and play at least 70 games to receive legitimate consideration. I expect both of these guys to play with the utmost urgency this season as many of the Clippers’ main cogs are soon-to-be free agents, Paul and Griffin included. I’d hitch my wagon to Griffin over Paul because Paul plays the most stacked position in the NBA.
Biggest obstacle: (1) The Warriors own the Clippers; (2a) Point Guards with bad knees do not tend to age well — CP3 turns 32 at the end of the season; (2b) athletic power forwards don’t tend to age well — he’ll be 28 this season but has had a handful of leg injuries in his career; and (3) even if they do finish in the top-2 in the West, they’ll cannibalize each other’s votes.
Should you bet on it: I have a good feeling about the Clippers this season. However, a lot has to go right for 1 of these 2 to emerge as the MVP.
8) Paul George (+2200)
Scenario where he wins: PG13 (an all-time great decision to change his jersey number from 24 to 13 — great call Bill Simmons) has certainly talked the talk about winning MVP this off-season. But whether can he turn this Pacer’s team into a fringe contender remains to be seen. If the Pacers got the 2 seed in the East and George’s play-making improved (4.1 assists/game vs. 3.3 turnovers/game last season), then any discussion about the MVP would have to mention George.
Biggest obstacle: His contemporaries. Unfortunately for PG13, he happens to be playing in the same era as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard. In other words, he has to separate himself from a top-5 all-time player, a top-5 all-time scorer, and a top-5 all-time wing defender. Best of luck to ya Paul!
Should you bet on it: Only if you can talk yourself out of LeBron and Durant winning the award. If you can do that, then he has pretty solid odds for a superstar on a team that completely revolves around him.
7) Russell Westbrook (+200)
Scenario where he wins: Russ wins the award if: (a) he averages a triple-double; or (b) leads the league in points and assists per game. He was only 2 rebounds shy of averaging a triple-double last season (23.5/7.8/10.4), so the triple-double is in play. Joining Tiny Archibald as the only player in history to lead the NBA in points and assists would also be hard for voters to ignore — especially after the way his and Durant’s tenure in OKC ended.
Biggest obstacle: Usage. Here’s a list of the top-4 usage rates ever:
- Kobe Bryant ‘05–06 — 38.74;
- Russell Westbrook ‘14–15 — 38.37;
- Michael Jordan ‘86–87 — 38.29; and
- Allen Iverson ‘01–02 — 37.78.
Westbrook is poised to shatter that record this season sans Kevin Durant, which brings about 2 key questions: 1) can he stay healthy? and 2) at what point does the storyline shift from look at Russ carrying the Warriors to Russ is an out-of-control Ball Hog? He’s already flirted with the latter in ‘14–15.
Should you bet on it: No. These odds are terrible. Guess how many players have won MVP on a team that finished with the 4 seed or worse in the past 30 years? ZERO. Ask yourself — is there any scenario where the Thunder finish with a better record in the West than the Warriors, Spurs or Clippers?
6) Kobe Bryant
Just making sure you are still reading.
6) Kevin Durant (+1000)
Scenario where he wins: In all likelihood, Durant will need to have 1 of 2 things happen to be considered for his 2nd MVP: (1) an injury to one or more of the Warrior’s 4 stars; or (2) the Warriors win 70+ games and Durant plays like 2015–16 Playoff Durant most of the season — which is basically a less powerful, but better shooting version of LeBron James.
Biggest obstacle: Cannibalization of votes by Curry and “The Decision” effect. Durant could put up a 27/8/5 stat line this season and voters will still likely find excuses to not choose Durant because of his decision to leave the Thunder and go to the Warriors this off-season.
Should you bet it: I’d still strongly consider it. These are the best odds you will ever see for a guy who is firmly in the middle of his prime and who will go down as a top-25 player in NBA history. If the Warriors win 70+ games again, it will be tough to not pick an MVP from their team.
5) Kawhi Leonard (+1000)
Scenario where he wins: In normal season, Kawhi’s 2015–16 season would have been enough to win him the MVP trophy — unfortunately for him, Steph Curry God Mode happened last year. If Leonard is in the running for Defensive POY again, ups his scoring average from 21 ppg to 25 ppg it could be enough to take down the award over guys with insane offensive stats like Westbrook or Harden.
Biggest obstacle: Style. Much like Tim Duncan before him, Leonard’s lack of personality just makes his greatness a little less exciting. He seems like a guy destined to always receive 2nd and 3rd place votes. That being said, if Leonard zips-up KD, LeBron and Harden on defense in a couple national TV games, that could always sway the voters’ minds.
Should you bet it: Will Leonard be the best wing player in the NBA in the regular season? If you think so, then 10:1 odds are incredible considering he is a freak of nature, he plays for arguably the greatest coach ever, and is just entering his prime.
4) Karl Anthony Towns (+3300)
Scenario where he wins: This one is not as far off as you might think. KAT is a MONSTER already. I mean, if you told me Towns is going to end up in the top-15 players of all-time conversation, I would not blink. Towns could steal the MVP a couple seasons earlier than expected if he leads the T’Wolves to a 4 or 5-seed in the West, makes The Leap (25p/12r), and none of the 3 guys ahead of him have standout season. NBA people LOVE this guy and the media will too — he’s extremely polished for a professional athlete, let alone a 20 year old. Life is good when everybody loves you — just ask ‘10–11 Derrick Rose.
Biggest obstacle: Youth, experience, and expectations. For a team that won only 29 games last season, the T’Wolves are receiving a ton of playoff buzz this season. Coach Thibs is clearly a massive upgrade over Sam Mitchell. However, if the Wolves were to jump to a 4 or 5 seed, as some are predicting, they would need to improve by 15+ games. That’s a dramatic improvement in 1 season — even for a team of hungry, budding young stars and a great coach.
Should you bet on it: YES. If you are going to throw some bones down on a sleeper, this is the guy. I couldn’t be more bullish on Towns. If he is not 1st or 2nd team All-NBA this season, I’d be pretty shocked. His odds won’t be this high for the next 10–12 years.
3) Stephen Curry (+450)
Scenario where he wins: He will win if he improves his defense again, goes 50/45/90 (field goal %/3pt %/free throw %), and averages 8+ assists/game. Basically, if Curry improves the non-shooting parts of his game and still shoots an absurdly efficient % from everywhere, he could easily win MVP again (and would be deserving of the award).
Biggest obstacle: See Durant, Kevin. Most people expect Curry and Draymond to sacrifice a handful of shots a game for Durant this year. Thus, Curry’s scoring average might take a considerable dip from last season’s 30+ ppg.
Should you bet on it: I’d stay away. While I still expect Curry to flirt with a 30+ PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and improve his all-around game, the Durant factor will make it tough for him to 3-peat as MVP.
2) LeBron James (+450)
Scenario where he wins: If it does not exist yet, someone needs to make a highlight mix of LeBron’s ‘15–16 NBA Finals to the tune of “Forgot about Dre”. His performance may trigger voters to reward him with an apology/appreciation vote of sorts. If James puts up his usual 25–7–6 stat line and adds something to his game — perhaps a consistent 3 point shot or a jump hook/new post move — he will get 1st place votes (which he absolutely will deserve).
Biggest obstacle: DNP-Rest. The Cavs know that they can sleepwalk through the entire season and, as long as LeBron is healthy, they will almost certainly make the Finals. Having a healthy, well-rested LeBron in June 2017 is more important to the team than LeBron’s pursuit of his 5th MVP trophy.
Should you bet on it. Probably the safest bet. He’s made it clear that he’s gunning for MJ, so the 5th MVP means a lot to him. Even if he only plays 65 games, he’s likely going to finish in the top-3 in voting at worst.
1) James Harden (+1000)
Scenario where he wins: As seen by the pre-season, Harden is going to put up some ABSURD offensive numbers this season as the point guard of the Rockets. I know I discussed the possibility of Westbrook leading the league in points and assists per game earlier — that was just me trying to appease the Thunder fans out there. James Harden is going to lead the league in points and assists per game and, unlike Tiny Archibald, his team won’t finish 36–46. He’s going to lead a surprisingly good Rockets team to a top-4 seed in the West.
Biggest obstacle: Overcoming his desire to mail-it-in on defense.
He does not need to be good; he just needs to avoid too much of the above.
Should you bet on it: Absolutely. He’s one of the best players in the NBA, the entire offense is built to his strengths, and he has the perfect coach to unleash the his full offensive potential — I’ll take +1000 on that any day.
