NBA 2nd Half Preview: The Sprint to the Finish Line
Who is tanking? What’s going on with Kawhi? Can the Rockets legitimately win it all? The 10 most important questions of the 2nd half
If you’re reading this, it means you made it through arguably the worst 3-day stretch of the sports calendar. Yes, the post-NBA All Star Game break — no NBA games, no football, and every good college hoops team going up against their worst in-conference opponent to ensure victories on Senior Night — it’s a rough stretch for sports fans. Add in the fact that you can’t understand any of the Winter Olympic events and — Enjoy your 3-night stay in Sports Hell!
Since you made it through Sports Hell and back, we’ll start this thing off with a fun question.
1) Which NBA star partied the hardest during the ASG Weekend?
3 candidates stand out amongst the rest:
- Jimmy Butler — told the coaches he needed to rest 🤔 (for those of you new to the NBA All Star Game — that means he was really, really hungover).
- James Harden — the NBA’s MVP favorite scored only 12 points on 26% FG shooting and 15% 3FG shooting against All Star Game defense!
- Draymond Green — 3 points on 0% FG shooting in 19 minutes.
Final Answer: James Harden. This is actually Harden’s 3rd stinker of an All Star Game — he was awful last year in New Orleans (when I bet on him to win MVP) and mailed it in during the 2014 game as well (also in New Orleans — go figure, a city where bars literally never close and all double as strip clubs 🤔). I’m beginning to notice a trend for the only player in the NBA with his jersey retired in a strip club.
Butler gets a pass because Coach Thibs has run him ragged his entire career and he probably did need the rest. Draymond gets the honorable mention for staying awake long enough during Fergie’s bizarre rendition of the National Anthem to give us this wonderful GIF:
The second half of the NBA season is a sprint to the finish line. Most teams have around 23–26 games remaining and, aside from the Warriors and Rockets, who are up 10 games up on the rest of the Western Conference, none of the potential playoff teams can afford to stumble down the stretch.
On the other hand, a growing number of teams will be trying to stumble down the stretch and tank for a good draft pick. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, who used to be vehemently against tanking, admitted earlier this week that he had dinner with some players on his team and told them that it’d be best if they kept losing and got a high draft pick (Adam Silver sent him a nice memo advising him he’d be donating $600,000 to the NBA after those comments). This brings us to our next question:
2) How many teams are tanking?
Teams in full-on Tank Mode:
- Suns (18 wins)
- Mavericks (18 wins plus about 18 sexual harassment lawsuits)
- Kings (18 wins)
- Grizzlies (18 wins)
- Hawks (18 wins)
- Magic (18 wins)
- Bulls (20 wins)
- Knicks (23 wins and an injured 🦄)
The Hornets should be tanking, but they have a bad owner (MJ) who apparently enjoys toiling in mediocrity and kept a too-good-to-tank but too-bad-to-make-the-playoffs roster in tact at the trade deadline. “They’ll finish with the 9 or 10 seed again” says resident Hornets fan Jake Sinsheimer. Sad!
In addition to the aforementioned 8 teams in full-on Tank Mode, the following teams do not have any incentive to tank (neither owns its own draft pick this year), but both are more concerned about developing young players than winning at this point. In other words, they’re effectively tanking:
- Nets (19 wins)
- Lakers (23 wins)
Final Answer: 10 teams or 1/3 of the NBA will be tanking these last 20-some games.
3) Which prospects are worth tanking for?
- Luka Dončić? Absolutely — familiarize yourself with this stud
- DeAndre Ayton? Definitely
- Mohamed Bamba? Doubt it — his offense is as raw as this sushi
- Jaren Jackson? Probably
- Marvin Bagley? Sure
- Michael Porter Jr.? Coin-flip
- Trae Young? As long as your team realizes he’s smaller and less athletic than Steph Curry
- Colin Sexton? No — you cannot justify tanking for Sexton
Final Answer: At least 4 and as many as 7 of the top prospects are worth tanking for.
4) Which non-tanking, non-Hornets team misses the playoffs in the East?
Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, 76ers, Heat and Pistons are all within 5 games of each other — 1 team won’t get in. The Wizards are too talented and experienced. The Pacers are too balanced. The Bucks have a Top-5 player (Giannis). The 76ers have a Top-10 player (Embiid) and a Top-25 player (Simmons). The Heat have the best coach (Spoelstra) of the bunch.
That leaves the “All-In” Pistons. While I like Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond, I don’t like Reggie Jackson being re-inserted into their lineup for the playoff push and I think they’ll lose some winnable games due to lack of chemistry.
Final Answer: The Detroit Pistons will not make the playoffs and Stan Van Gundy will be asked to resign as President of Basketball Operations or be fired. He’s stubborn and will choose the latter.
5) Which non-tanking team misses the playoffs in the West?
The Spurs, T’Wolves, Thunder, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Clippers and Jazz are all within 4.5 games of each other — 2 teams will not get in. No way a Coach Popovich team misses the playoffs — Spurs are in. The T’Wolves may run out of gas in the first round (Wiggins-Towns are 1–2 in total minutes; Butler averages the most minutes/game), but they’re making the playoffs. The Thunder are finally figuring things out and are as dangerous as any team when they’re humming on offense. The Nuggets get Paul Millsap back soon. The Blazers have too much offensive potential. The Jazz have an awesome coach and a great defense.
That leaves the Pelicans — thoughts and prayers for Anthony Davis — and Clippers — at least Lou Williams will win the 6th Man Award — as the odd teams out.
Final Answer: The Pelicans will miss the playoffs and Anthony Davis will quietly demand a trade this offseason. The Clippers will also miss the playoffs, but Steve Ballmer will do something splashy (move the team to Seattle or break ground on a new arena or sign a huge free agent) this off season.
6) What in the hell is going on with Kawhi Leonard?
Greg Popovich said he’d “be surprised if he returns this season” on Wednesday. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski dropped a subsequent Woj-Bomb stating that Kawhi has been cleared to play medically, but is seeking a second opinion on his quad injury. This is getting very strange.
My understanding is that Kawhi believes the Spurs’ team doctors misdiagnosed his injury initially (kind of like Boston did with Isaiah Thomas last year — only Kawhi is choosing to sit out until he is absolutely certain he’s healthy).
My hot take: Kawhi, who is a free agent in 2019, sits out the rest of the season and demands a trade in the offseason.
My 🔥🔥🔥 take: Kawhi pulls a full-Dennis Rodman on us. People forget that Rodman was a very shy, very reserved (but excellent) player on the Bad Boy Pistons. It wasn’t until he signed with San Antonio Spurs in 1993 that he started dying his hair, piercing his whole body, cross-dressing, etc. Yep, the next time we see Kawhi, he’s going to have painted cornrows, a nose ring and skeleton bones tattooed on his fingers to draw even more attention to his outrageously large hands.
Final Answer: Your guess is as good as mine.
7) Sleeper conference finalists?
Eastern Conference: Working off the presumption that Cavs and either the Raptors or Celtics are the favorites to make the Conference Finals, the Bucks and 76ers are the sleepers to keep an eye on. Why? Because of the “Best Player on the Court” theory — if you have the best player on the court on your team, you always have a chance to win a playoff series. Against any team besides the Cavs, the Bucks with Giannis and the 76ers with Embiid can always make an argument that they have the best player on the court — especially the Bucks.
Western Conference: The Rockets and Warriors are clearly the favorites to make the Conference Finals. However, don’t be surprised if the Thunder go punch-for-punch with either of the favorites in the 2nd round. The Thunder might be the most physically overwhelming team in the league and can kill teams on defense and the boards — Steven Adams could swing a series all by himself with his bruising, yet surprisingly well-rounded game around the rim. They’ve also figured out that Paul George is about 93% of what Kevin Durant was for them and have gone back to the Two-Alphas system with him and Westbrook getting tons of touches (sorry Melo!). Look for them to make a run at a 3 & D player who gets bought-out in the next week — Courtney Lee, perhaps? Finally, their record against the Rockets and Warriors so far? 3–0.
Final Answers: The Bucks, 76ers and Thunder are the sleepers.
8) How many games does it take the Cavs to win the East?
🔥 Take Alert: I saw everything I needed to see from the rejuvenated post-trade deadline Cavs in those 2 games before the All Star Weekend. Barring an injury to LeBron, they’re winning the Eastern Conference again. I mean, the only thing keeping me from calling them a legitimate title contender is their lack of a rim protector (Chris Bosh anyone?). They’ve put the perfect types of versatile, 2-way players around LeBron and he’s loving it.
I don’t think the Cavs lose a game to any team in a series except the Celtics, Raptors, Bucks and maybe the 76ers. A fully-healthy Celtics team (meaning Gordon Hayward returns) could maybe push them to 6 games. My guess is they go 4–0; 4–2 (vs. Celtics), 4–1.
Final Answer: It will take the Cavs 15 games to win the East.
9) Do the Rockets have what it takes to win it all?
The Rockets can win it all if, and only if, Chris Paul has the postseason of a lifetime. Why? Because, while they’re absolutely capable of winning, they have 3 things working against them in the playoffs:
- In the playoffs, refs don’t reward isolation ball and free-throw baiting like they do in the regular season. Guess who is the best in the NBA at both of those things? The Bearded One — James Harden. The Rockets need CP3 to balance-out Harden’s iso-heavy game when their team goes through shooting lulls.
- Mike D’Antoni struggles mightily against coaches who make great adjustments in the playoffs — Coach Popovich being the prime example. The Rockets will need Paul’s legendary basketball intelligence to be at its absolute sharpest.
- Teams will play them like the Spurs did last postseason and focus all of their energy on defending the 3-point line and rim — leaving mid-range shots WIDE open. CP3 is widely regarded as one of the best mid-range shooters in the NBA. Sometimes, in the playoffs, you have to be able to take what the defense gives you — even if it goes against everything your team emphasizes.
Final Answer: If the Rockets get a Hall of Fame-type performance in the playoffs from Chris Paul, they could win the title.
10) Can the Warriors be beaten?
In a vacuum, assuming no major injuries, the Warriors cannot lose a 7-game series — they literally have the best roster every assembled. Lucky for the fans, the NBA doesn’t operate in a vacuum and it is possible for the Warriors to get worn down and eventually lose in a battle of attrition. There’s 1 route that stands out to me as a potential killer for the Warriors:
- Warriors finish with the 1-seed in the West.
- Round 1: Warriors vs. Jazz — Warriors win, 4–1. The Jazz turn all 5 games into slower-paced, defensive “struggles” (meaning the Warriors score 105/game instead of 115/game) because they have the defense and length at every position to make the Warriors work hard on offense to get good shots.
- Round 2: Warriors vs. Thunder — Warriors win, 4–2. If the Warriors do lose these playoffs, this series pretty much has to happen. The Thunder can bludgeon them on the boards, turn them over on defense and blitz them on offense with hyper-athletic players at almost every position. The Warriors will still win the series because the Thunder struggle in late-game situations (a/k/a Westbrook runs out of gas and doesn’t hit his jumpers), but they’ll be bruised and battered for the rest of the playoffs because of this series.
- Conference Finals: Warriors vs. Rockets — Warriors win, 4–3. After a brutally physical first 2 rounds, this series will be a high-scoring track meet between the leagues’ 2 best teams. The Warriors still have a bit too much fire-power on offense, but all 4 of their stars will have multiple games in this series where they don’t have their usual legs because of the wear and tear from the earlier rounds. The Warriors limp into the Finals — it is reminiscent of 2016.
- NBA Finals: Warriors vs. Cavs — Cavs win 4–2. With the Warriors running on fumes from the Western Conference blood bath, the well-rested Cavs steal Game 1 at Golden State and protect home court the rest of the way. Durant and Draymond, due to the attrition, aren’t as tenacious on defense as they were in the 2017 Finals — making Kevin Love a bigger factor and giving LeBron a bigger edge on offense. The Cavs would also get an A+ effort by LeBron and big-time performances out of guys like George Hill, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance and JR Smith.
Final Answer: If the Warriors have to go through the Jazz, the Thunder and the Rockets, they might be just vulnerable enough to lose to the Cavs behind a legendary performance by LeBron. Am I predicting this will happen? Hell no! But hey, I felt the same way about the rest of the league’s chances against the Warriors in 2016 as well.
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