Revisionist History: Do High School Basketball Rankings Project NBA Success?
Part I: Grading the talent and accuracy of each prep class
A while ago, a friend texted me the Top-100 High School Basketball Recruits from 2006 and mentioned how ridiculous it was that future-MVPs like Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook were not in the Top-100, while future-1st degree murderer Javaris Crittenton was the #2 point guard in the class. Naturally, that got me thinking how often does this happen? In fact, it made me want the answer to 3 questions about high school basketball scouting:
- Which high school classes have produced the best/worst NBA talent?
- How accurate were the rankings in terms of projecting NBA success?
- Has high school basketball scouting accuracy improved over the past 15–20 years?
I decided that figuring out the answers to these questions would be my newest article endeavor . . . that was about a month ago.
Turns out, you could write an entire novel on these 3 questions. Thus, I had to break the questions up into 2 separate articles — Part I of this article will answer Questions 1 & 2; Part II of this article (which will be published next Friday) will attack Question 3.
A couple of things to note:
- 1998 is the earliest class I analyzed (because 1998 was the earliest consensus high school basketball recruiting class shown on basketball-reference.com);
- 2013 is the most recent class I analyzed (because most of its players are only rookies or 2nd or 3rd-year guys in the NBA);
And here’s my methodology for each class:
Top 10: The consensus Top-10 according to basketball-reference.com
Hits: Players in the Top-10 that made the NBA and were, at some point, a “good” NBA player. What qualifies as being “good”? It’s a combination of statistics (e.g., 15ppg or averaging close to a double-double is “good”) and my opinion (JR Smith from 2015–16 was “good”; JR Smith today is not “good”).
Busts: Players that either did not make the NBA, barely played, or never made any impact in the NBA considering their high school hype (you can’t be considered a “bust” if you were a solid NBA player for a couple years or had a long NBA career — e.g., Kwame Brown is not considered a “bust” compared to his high school ranking; but Greg Oden is considered a “bust”)
Misses: Players outside the Top-10 that should have been in the Top-10.
Re-Rankings: The way the Top-10 should have turned out.
Talent Grade: How talented was the class? (A, B, C, D or F)
Scouts’ Grade: How accurate were the scouts? (A, B, C, D or F)
1998
Top 10: 1. Al Harrington; 2. Rashard Lewis; 3. Korleone Young; 4. Dan Gadzuric; 5. Stromile Swift; 6. Ronald Curry; 7. JaRon Rush; 8. Joel Przybilla; 9. Quentin Richardson; 10. Jason Capel
Hits: Harrington, Lewis, Richardson
Busts: Young, Curry, Rush, Capel
Misses: Tayshaun Prince (#12), Mike Miller (#13), Corey Maggette (#17), Richard Jefferson (#33), Matt Barnes (#55), Udonis Haslem (#73), John Salmons (#84)
Re-Ranked: 1. Rashard Lewis; 2. Richard Jefferson; 3. Mike Miller 4. Tayshaun Prince; 5. Al Harrington 6. Matt Barnes; 7. Corey Maggette; 8. Udonis Haslem; 9. Quentin Richardson; 10. John Salmons
Talent Grade: C. There were no superstars in this class, but all 10 of the Re-Ranked Top-10 were high-level role players who enjoyed long NBA careers.
Scouts’ Grade: B. This class was hampered by many of its talented players turning pro too early (or playing in the NFL in Curry’s case), but the consensus Top-33 was fairly accurate.
1999
Top 10: 1. Donnell Harvey; 2. Keith Bogans; 3. Jay Williams; 4. Joseph Forte; 5. Marvin Stone; 6. LaVell Blanchard; 7. Brett Nelson; 8. Jonathan Bender; 9. Carlos Boozer; 10. Jason Kapono
Hits: Boozer
Busts: Harvey, Williams, Forte, Stone, Blanchard, Nelson, Bender
Misses: Jason Richardson (#14), Drew Gooden (#21), Joe Johnson (#25), Mike Dunleavy (#26), Jamal Crawford (#47), Caron Butler (#61), Kirk Hinrich (#62), Gilbert Arenas (#100)
Re-Ranked: 1. Joe Johnson; 2. Gilbert Arenas; 3. Carlos Boozer; 4. Caron Butler; 5. Jamal Crawford; 6. Jason Richardson; 7. Kirk Hinrich; 8. Mike Dunleavy; 9. Drew Gooden; 10. Jay Williams
Talent Grade: B. This class is more talented than the previous with the likes of Johnson, Arenas, Boozer, and Butler making multiple All-Star teams. However, those same players had relatively short primes.
Scouts’ Grade: F. The Class of 1999’s Top-10 was terrible — only Carlos Boozer enjoyed any type of success in the NBA. If Jay Williams’ career hadn’t abruptly ended in a motorcycle accident, this grade would have been better.
2000
Top 10: 1. Zach Randolph; 2. Eddie Griffin; 3. Darius Miles; 4. Gerald Wallace; 5. Marcus Taylor; 6. DeShawn Stevenson; 7. Chris Duhon; 8. Mario Austin; 9. Jared Jeffries; 10. Taliek Brown
Hits: Randolph, Miles, Wallace
Busts: Griffin, Taylor, Austin, Brown
Misses: Chris Wilcox (#23), Caron Butler (#47 — he spent some time in jail, so he’s here again), Luke Ridnour (#69), Dwyane Wade (Unranked), Jameer Nelson (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. Dwyane Wade; 2. Zach Randolph; 3. Caron Butler; 4. Gerald Wallace; 5. Jameer Nelson; 6. DeShawn Stevenson; 7. Darius Miles; 8. Chris Wilcox; 9. Luke Ridnour; 10. Eddie Griffin
Talent Grade: D. Without Wade, this class probably gets an F. Players 6–10 in the Re-Rankings are shockingly pedestrian.
Scouts’ Grade: C. For every hit in the Top 10, there was a spectacular miss. The most glaring miss was actually Dwyane Wade, who wasn’t even ranked in the Top 100.
2001
Top 10: 1. Eddy Curry; 2. Kelvin Torbert; 3. Dajuan Wagner; 4. Tyson Chandler; 5. Ousmane Cisse; 6. Kwame Brown; 7. Julius Hodge; 8. DeSagana Diop; 9. Rick Rickert; 10. David Lee
Hits: Curry, Chandler, Lee
Busts: Torbert, Wagner, Cisse, Hodge, Diop, Rickert
Misses: Mo Williams (#16), TJ Ford (#17), Josh Childress (#18), Ben Gordon (#41), Channing Frye (#87), Emeka Okafor (#99)
Re-Ranked: 1. Tyson Chandler; 2. Ben Gordon; 3. Mo Williams; 4. Emeka Okafor; 5. David Lee; 6. Channing Frye; 7. TJ Ford; 8. Eddy Curry; 9. Josh Childress; 10. Kwame Brown
Talent Grade: F. Yikes! Shockingly bad for a class that featured picks #1 (Brown), #2 (Chandler) & #4 (Curry) in the 2001 NBA Draft and picks #2 (Okafor) & #3 (Gordon) in the 2004 NBA Draft.
Scouts’ Grade: D. Find a person who knows who Kelvin Torbert, Ousmane Cisse and Rick Rickert all are and I’ll show you a liar.
2002
Top 10: 1. Amar’e Stoudemire; 2. Carmelo Anthony; 3. Raymond Felton; 4. Rashard McCants; 5. Jason Fraser; 6. Chris Bosh; 7. Paul Davis; 8. Shelden Williams; 9. Sean May; 10. DeAngelo Collins
Hits: Stoudemire, Anthony, Felton, Bosh
Busts: Fraser, Davis, Williams, May, Collins
Misses: JJ Redick (#11), Lenny Cooke (#25)— just kidding, Andre Iguodala (#27), Brandon Roy (#45), Jarrett Jack (#46), Deron Williams (#48); Nate Robinson (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. Chris Bosh; 2. Carmelo Anthony; 3. Amar’e Stoudemire; 4. Andre Iguodala; 5. Deron Williams; 6. Brandon Roy; 7. JJ Redick; 8. Raymond Felton; 9. Nate Robinson; 10. Jarrett Jack
Talent Grade: A. Hell of a Top-4 in the Re-Rankings. Bosh and Melo are Hall of Famers, and Stoudemire, Williams and Roy were all superstars in their respective primes. Toss in a Finals MVP by Iguodala and you’ve got a stellar class.
Scouts’ Grade: B. Fraser aside, the scouts nailed the Top-6 and every guy in the Top-10 of the Re-Rankings was in the Top-56 originally.
2003
Top 10: 1. LeBron James; 2. Luol Deng; 3. Shannon Brown; 4. Ndudi Ebi; 5. Kendrick Perkins; 6. Chris Paul; 7. Brian Butch; 8. David Padgett; 9. Leon Powe; 10. Kris Humphries
Hits: James, Deng, Perkins, Paul
Busts: Ebi, Butch, Padgett
Misses: Brandon Bass (#12), Charlie Villanueva (#18), Trevor Ariza (#19), Aaron Brooks (#32), PJ Tucker (#79), Paul Millsap (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. LeBron James; 2. Chris Paul; 3. Paul Millsap; 4. Luol Deng; 5. Trevor Ariza; 6. Kendrick Perkins; 7. PJ Tucker; 8. Aaron Brooks; 9. Charlie Villanueva; 10. Brandon Bass
Talent Grade: B. With one of the best players ever and one of the best point guards ever, this class is the epitome of “top-heavy”. . . then, it drops off a cliff and you find yourself debating whether Villanueva, Brooks or Bass had a better career.
Scouts’ Grade: C. Identifying LeBron and CP3 as top players wasn’t very hard. Retrospective tip — if you’re Top-10 has 3 white big men in it, it’s not going to age very well.
2004
Top 10: 1. Dwight Howard; 2. Shaun Livingston; 3. Al Jefferson; 4. Josh Smith; 5. Rudy Gay; 6. Sebastian Telfair; 7. Marvin Williams; 8. Robert Swift; 9. Malik Hairston; 10. Randolph Morris
Hits: Howard, Livingston, Jefferson, Smith, Gay, Williams
Busts: Telfair, Swift (White Big Man Doctrine), Hairston, Morris
Misses: Glen Davis (#11), LaMarcus Aldridge (#12), Rajon Rondo (#21), JR Smith (#23), Kyle Lowry (#29); Al Horford (#48), Joakim Noah (#72)
Re-Ranked: 1. Dwight Howard; 2. LaMarcus Aldridge; 3. Joakim Noah; 4. Kyle Lowry; 5. Al Horford; 6. Rajon Rondo; 7. Rudy Gay; 8. Josh Smith; 9. Al Jefferson; 10. JR Smith
Talent Grade: B. An absolutely loaded class that ultimately left some meat on the bone as guys like Howard, Noah, Rondo and Smith all had shorter primes than expected. Every guy in the Re-Rankings showed flashes of superstar talent, but ultimately, only Howard (and maybe Aldridge) was consistent enough to warrant Hall of Fame consideration.
Scouts’ Grade: B. A very divisive Top-10 with 6 clear hits and 4 clear misses. Still, getting 8 of 10 in the Top-29 is impressive.
2005
Top 10: 1. Josh McRoberts; 2. Monta Ellis; 3. Martell Webster; 4. Tyler Hansbrough; 5. Lou Williams; 6. Julian Wright; 7. Richard Hendrix; 8. Rasmin Mitchell; 9. Mario Chalmers; 10. Andrew Bynum
Hits: Ellis, Williams, Chalmers, Bynum
Busts: Wright, Hendrix, Mitchell
Misses: CJ Miles (#12), Danny Green (#15), Gerald Green (#16), Wilson Chandler (#56), Wesley Matthews (#61), Darren Collison (#98)
Re-Ranked: 1. Monta Ellis; 2. Lou Williams; 3. Andrew Bynum; 4. Danny Green; 5. Wesley Matthews; 6. Wilson Chandler; 7. Mario Chalmers; 8. Gerald Green; 9. Darren Collison; 10. CJ Miles
Talent Grade: D. I once had a huge argument with a roommate over whether CJ Miles was a “good” player (call me an NBA-hole, I don’t care). For the record, I was correct — he is NOT a good player . . . unless you compare him to the rest of his high school class.
Scouts’ Grade: C. The silver lining with this class? No scouts lost their jobs missing on any “can’t-miss” players.
2006
Top 10: 1. Greg Oden; 2. Kevin Durant; 3. Brandan Wright; 4. Spencer Hawes; 5. Ty Lawson; 6. Thad Young; 7. Chase Budinger; 8. Wayne Ellington; 9. Brook Lopez; 10. Gerald Henderson
Hits: Durant, Lawson, Young, B. Lopez
Busts: Oden (this is tough)
Misses: Mike Conley (#21), Taj Gibson (#46); Stephen Curry (Unranked); Russell Westbrook (Unranked); Jeremy Lin (Unranked); Ryan Anderson (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. Kevin Durant; 2. Stephen Curry; 3. Russell Westbrook; 4. Mike Conley; 5. Brook Lopez; 6. Ty Lawson; 7. Jeremy Lin; 8. Ryan Anderson; 9. Thad Young; 10. Taj Gibson
Talent Grade: A. 3 MVPs and surefire Hall of Famers at the top of the Re-Rankings followed by 2 very good players and some very high level role players. This is the most decorated high school class since 1998.
Scouts’ Grade: C. Missing on a marginal talent like Jeremy Lin — you can attribute that to the groupthink effect and Asian stereotypes. However, missing on not 1, but 2 future Hall of Famers like Curry and Westbrook — that’s just poor scouting.
2007
Top 10: 1. OJ Mayo; 2. Kevin Love; 3. Eric Gordon; 4. Michael Beasley; 5. Derrick Rose; 6. Kyle Singler; 7. Jerryd Bayless; 8. Donte Greene; 9. JJ Hickson; 10. Patrick Patterson
Hits: Mayo, Love, Gordon, Beasley, Rose
Busts: Greene
Misses: DeAndre Jordan (#13); Blake Griffin (#16); James Harden (#17); Chandler Parsons (#39), Jeff Teague (#55), Kenneth Faried (NR)
Re-Ranked: 1. James Harden; 2. Derrick Rose; 3. Blake Griffin; 4. Kevin Love; 5. DeAndre Jordan; 6. Eric Gordon; 7. Jeff Teague; 8. OJ Mayo; 9. Chandler Parsons; 10. Kenneth Faried
Talent Grade: A. Pretty damn good class — 5 All-NBA players and a number of high-level role players. Imagine if Rose, Griffin, Gordon and Parsons hadn’t all had injury problems.
Scouts’ Grade: A. It’s a little ironic that 2 of the more hyped prospects (Mayo and Beasley) ended up being an afterthought in this loaded class. Still, the entire Top-10 was drafted and only Greene busted out of the NBA.
2008
Top 10: 1. Brandon Jennings; 2. Jrue Holiday; 3. Tyreke Evans; 4. Samardo Samuels; 5. DeMar DeRozan; 6. Greg Monroe; 7. Al-Farouq Aminu, Byron Mullens; 8. Ed Davis; 9. Delvon Roe; 10. Scotty Hopson
Hits: Jennings, Holiday, Evans, DeRozan, Monroe
Busts: Samuels, Mullens, Roe, Hopson
Misses: Kemba Walker (#14), Klay Thompson (#58), Draymond Green (#95), Jimmy Butler (Unranked), Isaiah Thomas (Unranked), Paul George (Unranked), Gordon Hayward (Unranked); Damian Lillard (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. Jimmy Butler; 2. Paul George; 3. Klay Thompson: 4 Draymond Green; 5. Isaiah Thomas; 6. Damian Lillard; 7. DeMar DeRozan 8. Kemba Walker; 9. Gordon Hayward; 10. Tyreke Evans
Talent Grade: A. This class has 9 of the Top-40 players in the NBA today. This high school class will probably go down as the most accomplished class in NBA history.
Scouts’ Grade: F. Despite being the most talented class since 1998 (and maybe ever), only 2 of the class’ best players were even ranked in the Top-10 (DeRozan and Evans) and most weren’t even in the Top-100.
2009
Top 10: 1. Derrick Favors; 2. John Wall; 3. DeMarcus Cousins; 4. Avery Bradley; 5. John Henson; 6. Xavier Henry; 7. Renardo Sidney; 8. Lance Stephenson; 9. Kenny Boynton; 10. Tiny Gallon
Hits: Favors, Wall, Cousins, Bradley, Stephenson
Busts: Henry, Sidney, Boynton, Gallon
Misses: Kawhi Leonard (#48), Eric Bledsoe (#52), Khris Middleton (#99); CJ McCollum (Unranked); Hassan Whiteside (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. Kawhi Leonard; 2. John Wall; 3. DeMarcus Cousins; 4. CJ McCollum 5. Hassan Whiteside; 6. Eric Bledsoe; 7. Khris Middleton; 8. Avery Bradley; 9. Derrick Favors; 10. Lance Stephenson
Talent Grade: B. Very strong at the top; very solid in the middle; and very shaky at the bottom.
Scouts’ Grade: C. The scouts crushed the Top-5, then faltered the rest of the way. Another retrospective note to scouts — bigs who are lazy (Sidney) and out-of-shape (Gallon) in high school typically don’t pan out in the long run.
2010
Top 10: 1. Harrison Barnes; 2. Kyrie Irving; 3. Jared Sullinger; 4. Brandon Knight; 5. Tobias Harris; 6. Josh Selby; 7. Enes Kanter; 8. Perry Jones; 9. Tristian Thompson; 10. Will Barton
Hits: Barnes, Irving, Knight, Harris, Kanter, Thompson, Barton
Busts: Selby, Jones
Misses: Dion Waiters (#31), Jeremy Lamb (#78); Victor Oladipo (Unranked); Jae Crowder (Unranked)
Re-Ranked: 1. Kyrie Irving; 2. Harrison Barnes; 3. Dion Waiters; 4. Tristian Thompson; 5. Tobias Harris; 6. Jae Crowder; 7. Enes Kanter; 8. Will Barton; 9. Brandon Knight; 10. Jeremy Lamb
Talent Grade: C. Kyrie is on his way to the Basketball Hall of Fame someday, but the rest of these guys will have to pay the $10 entry fee just like you and me. Well, maybe not Dion Waiters — he’ll probably break Kobe’s record for most Field Goal Attempts in a single game (50) by the time his career is over.
Scouts’ Grade: B. Completely understandable for the scouts to think Perry Jones (I mean, he looked like the next Kevin Garnett here)and Josh Selby would be studs. I also can’t blame them for not identifying a late-bloomer like Oladipo as a star out of high school.
2011
Top 10: 1. Anthony Davis; 2. Austin Rivers; 3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist; 4. Bradley Beal; 5. Quincy Miller; 6. James Michael McAdoo; 7. Marquis Teague; 8. Le’Bryan Nash; 9. Adonis Thomas; 10. Cody Zeller
*Andre Drummond reclassified into this class and, thus, was not ever ranked. For simplicity sake, I’m leaving him out.
Hits: Davis, Rivers, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal
Busts: Miller, Teague, Nash, Thomas
Misses: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#15), Michael Carter-Williams (#25), Rodney Hood (#27), Otto Porter (#34), Norman Powell (#53), Malcolm Brogdon (#94)
Re-Ranked: 1. Anthony Davis; 2. Bradley Beal; 3. Otto Porter; 4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope; 5. Rodney Hood; 6. Malcolm Brogdon; 7. Michael Carter-Williams; 8. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist; 9. Cody Zeller; 10. Norman Powell
Talent Grade: C. We’re looking at a 1 Hall of Fame caliber player, 1–2 All-Star caliber players, and a bunch of solid role players and specialists — not the best class, but not the worst either.
Scouts’ Grade: B. Another very solid job by scouts with this class — the hype surrounding Austin Rivers seema unfounded now, but he was pretty special as a high school player (see here). Also, guys like Miller (injuries), McAdoo and Nash (stayed in college too long) probably developed into good NBA players in a parallel universe.
2012
Top 10: 1. Nerlens Noel; 2. Shabazz Muhammad; 3. Isaiah Austin; 4. Kyle Anderson; 5. Steven Adams; 6. Anthony Bennett; 7. Kaleb Tarczewski; 8. Alex Poythress; 9. Marcus Smart; 10. Archie Goodwin
Hits: Noel, Anderson, Adams, Smart
Busts: Austin, Bennett, Tarczewski, Poythress
Misses: Gary Harris (#16), Sam Dekker (#19), Kris Dunn (#20), TJ Warren (#27), Willie Cauley-Stein(#38), Terry Rozier (#76)
Re-Ranked: 1. Steven Adams; 2. Marcus Smart; 3. Gary Harris; 4. Terry Rozier; 5. Nerlens Noel; 6. Kyle Anderson; 7. TJ Warren; 8. Kris Dunn; 9. Willie Cauley-Stein; 10. Sam Dekker
Talent Grade: F. While this grade is still a fluid situation — with guys like Harris, Rozier and Dunn all showing flashes this season with expanded roles — there’s a good chance these guys combine for 0 All-Star appearances. That’s terrible!
Scouts’ Grade: B. Like many classes, there was some bad luck involved — Muhammad lying about his age, Austin’s genetic disorder, etc. — so the scouts get a bit of a pass here. They can also rest easy because they were less wrong about Bennett than the Cleveland Cavaliers’ scouts!
2013
Top 10: 1. Andrew Wiggins; 2. Julius Randle; 3. Jabari Parker; 4. Aaron Gordon; 5. Andrew Harrison; 6. Aaron Harrison; 7. Chris Walker; 8. Noah Vonleh; 9. James Young; 10. Dakari Johnson
Hits: Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Gordon
Busts: Aaron Harrison, Walker, Vonleh, J. Young, D. Johnson
Misses: Bobby Portis (#15), Joel Embiid (#16), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (#17), Zach LaVine (#49), Terry Rozier (again) (#53), Jordan Bell (#73)
Re-Ranked: 1. Joel Embiid; 2. Andrew Wiggins; 3. Aaron Gordon; 4. Julius Randle; 5. Jabari Parker; 6. Zach LaVine; 7. Terry Rozier; 8. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson; 9. Bobby Portis; 10. Jordan Bell
Talent Grade: B. This is a B class with the potential to be an A — it has as much talent as every class except 2006 and 2008. However, it remains to be seen as to whether guys like Randle, Parker, LaVine and Bell can up their respective games to All-Star levels or not.
Scouts’ Grade: C. The scouts nailed the Top-4, then proceeded to whiff on the next 6. The Harrison Bros ranking was understandable (huge, skilled guards that had plateaued athletically), but Chris Walker? Come on! That dude has less basketball skills today than Joel Embiid had before he even knew what a basketball was.
Here’s a summary of my findings (and a bit of a preview for Part II where I will analyze whether high school rankings have improved over the past 15–20 years both on a macro and micro level):
Talent Grades:
A: 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007 & 2008
B: 1999, 2003, 2009 & 2013
C: 1998, 2010 & 2011
D: 2000 & 2005
F: 2001 & 2012
Scouts’ Grades
A: 2007
B: 1998, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2011 & 2012
C: 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009 & 2013
D: 2001
F: 1999 & 2008
Thank you for reading! Be sure to check out Part II of this article next Friday. You can read more of Pat Heery’s work at The Has Been Sports Blog.
