The NBA’s Big Short: The Summer of ‘16
The 16 worst contracts of the free agency class of 2016
Remember this nonsense?
Of course you do — this was the cover picture of Kevin Durant’s article in The Players’ Tribune announcing that he’d be taking the easy way out and joining a Warriors team that had just gone 73–9 the previous season.
Durant’s announcement came on July 4, 2016. Much like LeBron James’ decisions in 2010 and 2014 and Gordon Hayward’s decision, then indecision, then re-decision in 2017, NBA fans are going to remember Durant’s decision for its shock value and impact on the NBA’s landscape for years to come.
The ironic thing about Durant’s decision is that, from an objective, pure free-agency standpoint, it wasn’t even one of the 20 most shocking deals that were made in that first week of July in 2016. Yes, he passed up a longer, larger contract with the Thunder (who had his Bird rights and could give him a “super” max deal — with an extra year and more money per year), but he still signed a deal that made sense to everyone (2-years/$54.3 million). On the other hand, most of the rest of the NBA’s free agents in 2016 signed deals that were completely unconscionable.
If you recall, the NBA signed a jaw-dropping 9-year, $24 billion TV deal in late-2014. The NBA Players’ Association, having always felt like they were getting the short end of the stick (remember the lockout in 2011), wanted its share of this money and wanted it immediately. They balked at the idea of “smoothing” the salary cap — meaning the salary cap (and thus, the players’ salaries) would be increased incrementally over the course of a couple of off-seasons so that there wouldn’t be a crazy spike and disproportionate salaries. In retrospect, refusing to allow a “smoothing” of the salary cap was a dumb idea — but the players didn’t trust the league or its owners at the time and you couldn’t blame them.
Therefore, when the new TV deal kicked in — beginning in July of 2016 — the market value for any non-minimum/non-rookie contract player increased exponentially. All of a sudden, a “max” player went from making around $20 million per year to making around $35–45 million per year (the contracts increase each year — e.g., Steph Curry makes around $35 million this year, but will make over $45 million during the 2021–22 season). Solid role players went from making $4–6 million per year to making $12–15 million per year.
It was absolute insanity in The Summer of ‘16. Teams spent like there was no tomorrow because — much like the housing market crash in 2008 — they were operating under false pretenses. The teams all believed that the salary cap would continue to rise by tens of millions of dollars each year, leaving them with more cap room each summer to continue to sign free agents at these new “market” rates.
Instead, the league didn’t collect as much revenue as it expected in the subsequent seasons and the salary cap flattened. All of a sudden, teams that had spent with reckless abandon in July of 2016 realized they’d be stuck with some terrible contracts and little-to-no cap flexibility for the next 2–4 years. It ruined up-and-coming teams like the Trail Blazers and sent teams like the Grizzlies into a free fall.
The Summer of ‘16 is still impacting the league today. Teams are unwilling to trade 1st-round draft picks because they need young talent on cheap contracts more than ever (the Cavaliers were on the only team that traded a 1st-round pick at the trade deadline this year). The cost to move “bad” contracts is higher than ever (the Lakers had to attach a potential star in D’Angelo Russell to Timofey Mozgov in a trade just to get rid of Mozgov’s horrific contract). A borderline All-Star in his prime like Lou Williams just signed a 3-year/$24 million extension with the Clippers because he was afraid he might not command as much in this summer’s free agent market. It’s truly a bearish market right now.
With that introduction to The Summer of ‘16, I give you the 16 worst contracts signed during the 2016 free agency signing period.
Rules
1) Player must have signed for at least 3 years
Dishonorable Mention: Dwyane Wade (2y/$47.5M — barf emoji); Jeff Green (1y/$15M); Arron Afflalo (2y/$25M); Rajon Rondo (2y/$28M); Festus Ezeli (2y/$15M — never played a game!!!); Pau Gasol (2y/$30M); and Jared Sullinger (1y/$6M — not on an NBA roster today!!)
2) Player must make > $10 million per year
Dishonorable Mention: DJ Augustin (4y/$29M); Jerryd Bayless (3y/$27M); Matthew Dellavedova (4y/$38M); Al Jefferson (3y/$30M); Mirza Teletovic (3y/$30M); Wesley Johnson (3y/$18M); Cole Aldrich (3y/$22M); and Andrew Nicholson (4y/$26M — not on an NBA roster today!!)
3) No getting caught up in reputation or advanced-analytics
On the reputation side, Dwight Howard (3y/$70M) and Austin Rivers (3y/35M) may be the two least-liked players in the NBA, but they’re both solid contributors on teams in the mix for the playoffs. They get a pass here.
On the advanced-analytics side, we all know that the Kevin Peltons (ESPN’s nerdiest of basketball nerds) of the world hate Jordan Clarkson (4y/$50M) because of his defensive metrics — but he’s averaging 15p/game. Same goes for Ryan Anderson (4y/$80M) — he’s an important piece on a title contender. They get a pass.
Tyler Johnson (4y/$50M) should make a third of what he makes, but he’s decent enough to avoid a “worst” contract distinction too.
The 16 worst contracts — in order of signing (contracts and order of signing courtesy of SB Nation):
Timofey Mozgov: 4 years, $64 million with Lakers
2017–18 Stats: 4p/3r/0a per game in 26 games (for the Nets)
The free agency class of 2016’s worst signing may have been its first signing. Mozgov struggled mightily during the 2015–16 Cavs’s title run and never regained his 2014-15 NBA Finals form before being benched by Ty Lue and used sparely in the playoffs. He entered free agency as a backup center whose skills were quickly becoming antiquated in the Warriors-driven, spread-out Pace & Space Era of the NBA.
No matter!! The Lakers kicked-off free agency by doling out $64 MILLION to Mozzy.
He averaged 7p/5r per game in one season for the Lakers — who had to attach D’Angelo Russell to a deal with the Nets just to move off of his contract this past summer. For a team that was trying to rebuild through the draft, this was an absolutely abysmal signing that cost the Lakers an intriguing asset in Russell.
Nicolas Batum: 5 years, $120 million with Hornets
2017–18 Stats: 12p/4r/5a per game
As we’ll see with a number of these signings, this was a case of a promising team facing a Catch-22 — choose between overpaying a good, not great player or offer less than “market value” and almost assuredly lose that asset for nothing . . . and piss off the fan base. Here, Batum was coming off a very nice season — 15p/6a/6r per game — and the Hornets had just won a franchise-high 48 games. If they didn’t pay Batum, Portland or Memphis or some other team with cap space would have. Now, they’re paying max money to a slightly above-average wing player.
Mike Conley: 5 years, $152 million with Grizzlies
2017–18 Stats: 17p/2r/4a per game in only 12 games; Out for season (Achilles)
This one is brutal because, when healthy, Conley is worth a max contract to the Grizzlies. He’s a great point guard, a great leader and a great person. Unfortunately, this has a chance to go down as one of the worst contracts in NBA history if Conley’s Achilles continues to hamper him.
Chandler Parsons: 4 years, $94 million with Grizzlies
2017–18 Stats: 9p/3r/2a per game in only 26 games (after playing only 34 last season)
This article below sums up Mr. Parsons’ contributions for Memphis.
Evan Turner: 4 years, $70 million with Blazers
2017–18 Stats: 8p/3r/2a per game
If franchises aren’t nervous about the Brad Stevens-effect, they ought to be. Stevens is brilliant and somehow manages to put all of his players in positions and situations that emphasize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Guys like Turner, Sullinger, Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas have all regressed mightily the moment they left Boston. Turner is a wealthy 7th-man for the Blazers.
Solomon Hill: 4 years, $48 million with Pelicans
2017–18 Stats: 0 games played; Out with injury (hamstring)
Do you know what Hill averaged in his “contract” year that got him this deal? 4p/3r/1a per game in 59 games for the Pacers. Wait, what!?!?
Joakim Noah: 4 years, $72 million with Knicks
2017–18 Stats: 1p/2r/1a per game in only 7 games; Currently suspended indefinitely by team
How does one become the most overpaid player in NBA history? Apparently, you show up at Phil Jackson’s house in Montana unannounced and get him so high over the next 3 days that he thinks it’s still 2013 when he signs you.
Kent Bazemore: 4 years, $70 million with Hawks
2017–18 Stats: 13p/4r/4a per game
The Bazemore signing was the epitome of The Summer of ‘16 — a solid 3 & D wing entering his prime was paid double his true value. Would you want to pay Kent Bazemore $8–9 million per year? Probably. Would you want to pay Kent Bazemore $17–18 million per year? Hell no!
Luol Deng: 4 years, $72 million with Lakers
2017–18 Stats: 2p/0r/1a in 1 game
And now we go to Magic Johnson for some analysis on Luol Deng . . .
Jon Leuer: 4 years, $42 million with Pistons
2017–18 Stats: 5p/4r/1a per game in 8 games
Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Jon Leuer — he probably shouldn’t be in the NBA. Stan Van Gundy may be a good coach, but signings like Leuer definitely make you wonder if he owes some agents some serious favors 🤔.
Bismack Biyombo: 4 years, $72 million with Magic
2017–18 Stats: 6p/6r/1a per game
Biyombo is this generation’s Jerome James — he turned a couple of impressive playoff games into a fat, entirely unwarranted long-term deal.
Ian Mahinmi: 4 years, $64 million with the Wizards
2017–18 Stats: 4p/4r/1a per game
The Wizards would probably change their name back to the Bullets and change their logo to silhouettes of the Gilbert Arenas-Javaris Crittenton standoff if it meant they could get off of this Mahinmi contract.
Allen Crabbe: 4 years, $75 million with Nets, Trail Blazers match
2017–18 Stats: 12p/4r/2a per game with Nets
Crabbe is a solid 3 & D player in today’s NBA. “Solid” during The Summer of ‘16 got you paid $18–19 million per year. Here’s a list of this year’s All-Stars (on non-rookie deals) who are making less than Allen Crabbe right now:
- John Wall
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Klay Thompson
- Goran Dragic
- Draymond Green
- Kemba Walker
Meyers Leonard: 4 years, $41 million with Blazers
2017–18 Stats: 4p/2r/0a in per game 21 games
Leonard has “Blessed” tattooed on his right bicep. I have no idea when he got this tattoo, but I’m going to assume it was shortly after he signed this deal. Portland has three guys on this list — Turner, Crabbe & Leonard — that’s basketball malpractice.
Miles Plumlee: 4 years, $52 million with Bucks
2017–18 Stats: 4p/4r/1a per game in 37 games for the Hawks
One of my friends once had the audacity to scold me for being too lazy to figure out which Plumlee was which (lol, Jake Sinsheimer). This one has brown hair and sucks (as opposed to the blond hair one that is really average and the youngest, tallest one that really sucks).
JR Smith: 4 years, $57 million with Cavaliers
2017–18 Stats: 8p/3r/2a per game
You think I’m really going to rip on my boy JR Swish? Nahhhh…..
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