By most measures, 2014 was a dynamic year. Markets are up; consumer confidence is turbulent. The price of oil has plummeted. American unemployment, as defined by our government, is at its lowest point since 2008.

Amid many determinative events, the one issue that I’ll most closely watch in 2015 is global governance. There’s ten, non-exhaustive cases of global governance that could make or break 2015.

Here’s the list:

1. TTP: As I’ve written, Obama has become an unexpected champion of global trade. If the Americans can pull together the TTP mega-deal, it will have vast geo-political consequences. The US will centrally position itself in Asia for the next fifty years. Such an arrangement will have impact on currency, workforce conditions, diplomatic relations, and the US-China re-balancing. It’s a big deal, and by no means secured. Many forces, including our own congress, can scuttle the deal. I’ll be watching this one closely.
2. Russia: Since Russia annexed Crimea, and arguably well before, the world has been watching Putin. A broad coalition has punished their oil-dependent economy. But the drop in oil prices — itself a reflection of government decision-making — has arguably done more to damage Putin’s Russia than any sanctions. Putin, the salty ex-KGB agent, has a choice: calm his flagrancy or lash out. No one knows what he will do, how he will be influenced, and how this ends. The uncertainty scares the market and will lead to continued capital outflow.
3. North Korea: In many ways, North Korea is the world’s last remaining rogue state. They operate in what most would consider a crazy way. Their absence from the global economy doesn’t hurt anyone but them, but their erratic behavior spooks their neighbors and their neighbors’ allies. Like Russia, no one can accurately predict their behavior. The US’s further collaboration with China, which I will discuss later, may help; as NK’s sole benefactor, China ostensibly has influence over their leadership. But no one would be surprised if we saw more cyber attacks or worse. North Korea’s behavior and the international community’s response will be something to watch.
4. US-Iran: For the first time since 1979, US and Iranian top leadership have been in direct contact. Their dialogue has focused on the Iranian nuclear program and the linked international sanctions. Their dialogue may blow up. But if both governments are able to push through a comprehensive deal, the geopolitics of the Middle East may fundamentally shift. Iran would be more exposed to the global economy — which may influence them to rethink their, let’s just say, more nefarious activity. Conversely, if the nuclear deal falls apart, and Iran decides to pursue the bomb, we would see a far more volatile Middle East. The Israelis would likely respond militarily and it would unleash a regional nuclear arms race. The ugly would get uglier.
5. EU: The EU is a mess. The member states vacillate between solidarity and power politics. But their economies generally stink and are not expected to do much better in 2015. Getting the EU’s big players coordinated on governance will be problematic. Their failure will continue to be a drag on the global economy. It will also send market signals to global investors.
6. US-China: I’ve recently been reading a lot about modern China. This book, in particular, is excellent. So is this one. The US-China relationship — covering economics, governance, climate change, regional and global security — will define my lifetime. Xi and Pres Obama have made some progress, but still fundamentally misunderstand each other. Further meaningful collaboration could begin to reorient our relationship to win-win; further protagonist behavior could set off a global bifurcation. We should prefer a smart calibration of the former.
7. ISIS/Iraq/Syria: This is a three-for-one. ISIS is wreaking havoc on two neighboring states: Syria and Iraq. The US has led a coalition to stop — and, supposedly, break — ISIS. They have made some progress in Iraq. Syria is another matter. Most of the region’s players are involved, and often on different sides. As part of a larger war, the camps have been or are being defined. ISIS is in the middle. The US has pulled out of Iraq, but now we’re back. No one knows how this ends — but we know that, either way, further chaos will impact oil prices, foreign investments, and regional governance.
8. The US: Whenever you land on the spectrum, the US political landscape is disastrous. Narrow interests define priorities; big issues, including those few where there’s agreement, are skirted. For US governance, 2015 will be a tale of two related issues: Obama’s relationship with the GOP-controlled congress and the looming 2016 presidential election. Optimists say that split government leads to compromise. Pessimists are less generous. Foreign policy, tax structure, energy policy, immigration, corporate regulations, and a host of other issues will be on the table. We’ll see if we have an effective government or a 24-hour news cycle-driven government.
9. Cyber and technology: Right now, there aren’t any firm rules on cyber security. We hack people and countries. They hack us, albeit for different reasons. Cyber security is a convergence of the personal and corporate. We don’t like the idea of digitally exposing ourselves to the unknown. Corporate espionage costs US corporations a lot of money. If we can figure out cyber do-and-donts, everyone would be better off. If we can’t — which is more likely — the only choice will be for every company to harden their defenses and for each country to scale their offensive capabilities. A cyber “arms race” would likely follow. As interesting will be how governments interact with the reach of emerging technology. As Uber and Airbnb have shown in 2014, governments are unsure of how to deal with disruptive technology. In 2015, we will likely see government take deeper stances on cryptocurrency, the commercial use of drones, genetic research, and other technologies that will emerge. It’s important to realize that this will impact companies everywhere, not just Silicon Valley, and could happen on every level of government. The tension between technological progress and government regulation has always been and will continue to be a major issue.
10. US Fed and Global Economic Policy: The US Fed has relaxed QE, which will affect interest rates, public policy, and private investment. The European Central Bank will likely ramp up QE, which may pace the flow of private investment. Large banks and financial institutions are very closely following these policy decisions. They will impact every level of our society — which is ironic, because so few understand how exposed they are to the impacts of economic policies.

I’m sure there are many other areas of global governance to monitor. But in the interest of highlighting knowable threats and opportunities, I will be closely following these ten areas. When new global governance challenges more fully emerge — such as Japan’s economy, Lone Wolf attacks many are expecting, or if India’s manufacturing sector takes off — I will revisit and update this post.