Bitcoin prediction: from zero to hero

Industry media and social networks abound with forecasts of the bitcoin price and the state of other cryptocurrencies. Some experts rely on fundamental analysis, others on technical factors or market sentiment.

Bitcoin maximalists are usually confident in the cloudless prospects of the market, and supporters of state regulation, stock markets, banks and other “traditional values” often make forecasts in the direction of a decline or even predict the collapse of the entire industry.

It is not surprising that the forecasts are radically different from each other, because of how many people — so many opinions. But how to navigate this endless stream of predictions and who to believe?

We made an overview of the most interesting bitcoin price forecasts from well-known market experts.

Bitcoin optimists: $10,000 to $1,000,000

$1,000,000

Let’s start the review with the most optimistic bitcoin enthusiasts. Perhaps the most extravagant forecast more than two years ago was made by the Creator of McAfee Security antivirus John McAfee. He promised to “eat his penis on TV” if by the end of 2020 BTC will not worth $500 thousand.

A few months later, McAfee sharply raised rates, setting a target of $1 million in October this year, the entrepreneur finally explained his confidence in such a bold forecast:

“We recognize the obvious — there are only 21 million bitcoins. Seven of which are forever lost, and if Satoshi is dead, add a few million more»

He is sure that the first cryptocurrency will account for 5% of global financial transactions, and even more. At the same time, based on the available number of coins, bitcoin will cost $10 million, McAfee said: “We will check at the end of 2020”

$500,000 — $ 1,000,000

Bobby Lee, the former CEO of the oldest Chinese crypto exchange BTCC, also draws very bright prospects. He recently expressed confidence that by 2028 the price of bitcoin will reach $500000.

Lee compares the first cryptocurrency to gold, which has a market of about $8 trillion. In his opinion, within 9 years, the price of BTC will overcome the $500,000 mark, as a result, bitcoin will surpass the gold market in capitalization.

However, Lee is confident that the growth of bitcoin will not stop there.

“Given the global scale of the money printing taking place today, the price of BTC is likely to overcome the mark of $1 million,”

In addition to the macroeconomic component, Bobby Lee justifies his forecast by the deflationary nature of bitcoin. Thus, BTC becomes even more scarce after each halving, reducing the volume of emission and, consequently, inflation.

“Bitcoin was designed to be super valuable over time — By 2020, the daily volume of emission will be only about ~255 BTC, the annual inflation will be less than 0.5%. Scarce gold!”

$500,000

The head of the leading provider of crypto-wallets Blockchain Peter Smith in April 2017 made a forecast that bitcoin can reach the price of $500,000 by 2030. It is noteworthy that at that time BTC was trading around $1200.

According to Smith, the main drivers of growth in the price of digital gold in the coming years will be:

• Cross-border payments, the share of bitcoin in which will grow rapidly.
• Uncertainty in the global economy, increasing interest in liquid, easy-to-use and transport alternative assets.
• The spread of mobile communication, so that every smartphone owner will have a “Bank in his pocket”.

Also, the head of Blockchain is confident that in 2030, the market capitalization of bitcoin will be $10 trillion.

The forecast price of bitcoin for 2030 is calculated as a quotient of the projected market capitalization of “digital gold” and the constant supply of mined cryptocurrency ($10 trillion: $20 million = $500,000).

$250,000

Tim Draper a venture capitalist and early bitcoin follower also is extremely optimistic. According to him, digital gold will reach $250,000 in the first quarter of 2023. However, he had previously suggested that this mark would be reached in 2022.

Draper sincerely believes that bitcoin is a protective asset during periods of turbulence in traditional markets. Also, the investor is confident that within five years BTC will displace Fiat currencies. According to him, every year the cryptocurrency will become a more convenient tool for payments and investment, thanks to the high speed of transactions and low fees.

$150,000

Trader and cryptanalyst Josh Rager concluded that the trajectory of the price of bitcoin is largely similar to that observed in 2015.

In April this year, Rager hypothesized that the accumulation phase would end in July. In his opinion, to start a bullish rally, the price needs to break through the resistance in the form of a 100-week moving average (MA).

However, soon after his assumption, bitcoin began to grow steadily, and in June the price of the asset reached an annual maximum at $13,880 (Bitstamp exchange).

Thus, the accumulation phase ended much earlier, but the rise did not last long — at the end of June, a rapid fall began with periodic “dead cat jumps”.

The weekly chart shows that the MA 100 was indeed broken through against the background of a very strong movement supported by volumes:

However, the breakdown occurred in May, that is, somewhat earlier than the forecast. It can also be noted that subsequently the price repeatedly re-tested MA 100.

In General, Rager is confident that the upcoming phase of the bull cycle of bitcoin will end in 2023 at $150,000.

The analyst also believes that after 2021, most investors will not be able to buy more than 1 BTC due to the high price of the first cryptocurrency.

$100,000

The head of the Morgan Creek Digital asset management Fund, Mark Yusko, is confident that bitcoin can easily soar to $50–100 thousand in the next two years.

He bases his belief in the upcoming rapid rally of BTC on Metcalf’s law.

“If you think about the growth of the network in terms of Metcalf’s law, you can find that the price can easily be between $50,000 and $100,000 sometime in 2020 or 2021. This is a fairly wide range, but it seems to me that the main difficulty in forecasting the price is that it does not reflect the true value.“

He also stressed that the new rally will be due to the emergence of a large number of speculators who want to become market participants and the network effect.

Also, this summer, Kraken Jess Powell the head of the American bitcoin exchange mentioned the mark of $100,000. However, he believes that this is far from the limit, and over time, the price of BTC will reach a million dollars.

$90,000

A large German Bank Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) has published a study according to which in 2020 the price of bitcoin can reach $90 000.

The study is based on the ratio of reserves and growth, corresponding to the models of Seifedin Ammus and the popular analyst Plan B. the financial institution is convinced that bitcoin resembles gold in its characteristics. At the same time, after halving 2020, the asset will demonstrate an identical ratio of reserves and growth.

$60,000 — $100,000

Naeem Aslam, an analyst at online broker ThinkMarkets, is confident that during the next bullish rally, the price of bitcoin will conquer new peaks in the range of $60,000 — $100,000. He is convinced that in the less distant future, the important price boundaries for BTC are $20,000 and $50,000.

The expert believes that the main drivers of bitcoin’s growth are the involvement of institutional investors, the trade war between the US and China, as well as uncertainty in the stock market and the risks of a new military conflict in the Middle East.

$50,000 — $100,000

Legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt has a slightly more conservative Outlook. He is confident that bitcoin is able to reach the mark of $50,000, and in the long term — $100,000.

However, before such impressive growth, digital gold will have to survive a fall to the level of $5500 and perhaps even to $3905. At the same time, the first goal can be achieved in July next year.

According to Brandt, there is too much unjustified optimism around bitcoin so far:

“First, the bulls must be completely exterminated. When there are no bulls on Twitter, then we will get a good buy signal.”

Being a supporter of technical analysis, the expert is confident that currently, Bitcoin is entering the fourth phase of parabolic growth, which will lead the asset to the mark of $100 000.

“No other market in my 45 years of trading has looked like this on a logarithmic chart. Bitcoin is a market unlike any other“

$50,000

In April this year, Arthur Hayes the head of the largest crypto exchange BitMEX expressed confidence that within 2–5 years, the price of bitcoin will reach $50,000.

According to him, governments in the next five years will systematically “kill” financial privacy, seeking to control a variety of areas. At the same time, cryptocurrencies will become the” last Bastion “ of financial privacy. Therefore, the demand for digital currencies will grow.

$20,000

Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee is known in the crypto community largely for his predictions. His optimistic assumptions about the future price of bitcoin cause considerable resonance among the participants of the crypto industry.

For example, in August, Lee expressed the opinion that by the end of this year, the price of BTC could reach $20,000. US Federal Reserve, reducing the rate and thus weakening the dollar, will help the growth of digital gold.

“Bitcoin is strengthening its position as a tool for macro-hedging risks. Lowering rates increases liquidity, this leads to the fact that money is sent to all risky assets, as well as to hedging. In turn, this has a positive impact on bitcoin“

Lee is sure that another important factor in the growth of the market is the trade tensions between the US and China. The expert is sure that over time bitcoin becomes a means of hedging global risks, increasingly demonstrating a correlation with protective assets like gold and bonds and a negative one with the stock market.

Note that earlier forecasts Lee were much less restrained. For example, in June, an analyst said that after overcoming the $10,000 level, the FOMO-driven price of bitcoin will reach the $40,000 mark within a few months.

~ $16,000

The founder of the company Viewpoint Research Ronnie Moas came to the conclusion that the annual inflation of the Bitcoin is lower than the currencies of more than 70 countries, including the United States.

According to him, currently, the inflation of the leading cryptocurrency is 4% per year, and after halving in May 2020, it will decrease to 2%. This will make Bitcoin an even better means of preserving value.

Moas added that if the US stock market can double in 5–7 years, the price of bitcoin will double in the next 5–7 months.

The forecast was made on November 18, when BTC was trading around $8,200. Consequently, Moas expects that in March-May 2020, the price of bitcoin will be just above $16,000.

$10,000

Mike Novogratz, the head of the crypto Bank Galaxy Digital notes that in recent months, the industry is experiencing a shortage of fundamentally significant events that can push the market up.

In October, the investor expressed confidence that bitcoin will return to the psychological mark of $10,000. However, before that, the first cryptocurrency will push off from support at $6500.

Like many experts, Novogratz believes global instability is the main factor in the growth of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies:

“With the yuan above 7, currency war, instability in Hong Kong and the start of capital flight, the BTC rally could indeed continue.”

It should be noted that Novogratz’ forecast has already come partly true — in late November, the price really reached the local bottom just above the $6500 mark and at the time of writing is trading around $7300.

Bitcoin skeptics: from $6000 to zero

$6000

Peter Schiff, a financial expert and cryptocurrency critic said in October that the technical picture on BTC looks terrible. Seeing the pattern “Bearish flag” on the chart, he assumed that the price of bitcoin will fall to the level of $6000.

He then noticed signs of a Head-and-shoulders formation with a target at the $2,000 mark. Trader WhalePanda immediately suggested the Bitcoin skeptice to open a short position with 100x leverage on BitMEX.

Earlier, Peter Schiff said that digital gold failed the test for a protective asset.

$4000

It may seem strange, but a well-known trader in the community Tone Vays does not rule out that bitcoin soon will reach $4000. However, according to him, this mark will serve as an excellent signal for large purchases.

“When bitcoin bottoms above or below the $4000 mark or at it, I will go all-in and sell everything I can [to buy],” Weiss promised.

As a trader, Weiss often uses technical factors, but he is no stranger to fundamental analysis.

$0

The world-famous predictor of global crises Nouriel Roubini believes that the value of Bitcoin as well as Ethereum tends to zero,

“Crypto and all these shitcoins are the biggest mistakes of our era. The solution to the problems not covered by the banking services of people, in fact, is a disguised intention to take money away. No decentralization, no financial security, no scarcity, no privacy. All this is nothing but the stories of chronically ill simpletons who invest in shitcoins, “ Rubini said during a discussion with the head of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes.

It is possible to discuss negative forecasts and criticism of bitcoin for a long time, but does it make sense? Obituaries bitcoin appeared in various media from the first years of the cryptocurrency. According to the Bitcoin Obituaries website, bitcoin has “died” 378 times so far.

However, it should be taken into account that all these goals differ in the horizon of forecasting. In addition, many analysts-Bobby Lee, Peter Brandt, Naim Aslam-do not accurately indicate the future value of BTC, but only a range that can be quite wide (this chart shows prices corresponding to the lower limits of the ranges).

As it turned out, most experts rely on fundamental factors. Among the most important they include such characteristics of Bitcoin as scarcity, relatively low transaction costs, and acceptable payment speed.

Also, analysts often refer to various external levers. However, it is unlikely that bitcoin is affected by macroeconomic factors to the same extent as traditional assets.

For example, the US stock market can react sensitively to the slightest changes in the fed rate and other changes in monetary policy. Bitcoin, on the contrary, is not controlled by governments and Central banks, therefore, the influence of these institutions on its price can only be indirect.

***

It is difficult to imagine an asset, the forecasts for which would be so much different. Bitcoin is really unique, and it is not so easy to predict its price, especially if you listen to the opinion of each expert.

Forecasting is complicated by the weak correlation of bitcoin with traditional assets, inconsistency of macroeconomic factors and poorly developed methodology of fundamental analysis. In addition, the market value of BTC can suddenly fall or rise by more than $1000 per day, putting an end to most short-term forecasts.

However, many experts believe that over time, the volatility of the cryptocurrency will decrease and its liquidity will grow. This will make the market more predictable and attractive for institutional investors willing to invest in bitcoin really big money.

What is your forecast on the Bitcoin price? Share in comments!

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