04302021 :: Friday finance

A partial digest

Philip Valenta, MSF


A partial digest:

Thursday was day 100 of the Biden-Harris administration. Meanwhile, another stimulus package is being floated.

US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%. PCE was high at 10.7%, while the PCE price index came in at 3.5%. One should remember that these figures were facilitated by stimulus checks, and those are fleeting. In quarters where little to no fiscal aid was provided to the general population in 2020 or prior years, PCE was predictably much lower.

What this signifies, in part, is that we still have no reason to expect sustained systemic inflation, yet.

Quick wrap:

  • Yields rose to finish above 1.625 on the 10Y.
  • The DXY finished up.
  • Oil finished up.
CALL: No change; near to semi-intermediate term, prices could rise further given supply shocks, OPEC+ micromanagement, inflation expectations, "recovery," and more fiscal spending, among other things. Longer term, it's a dying industry.[tracking: XLE, DRIP]
  • The S&P Global Clean Energy index finished down for the week.
[tracking: TAN]
  • Gold finished slightly down for the week.
CALL: No change; expecting ever-lower valuations moving forward. Looking for an eventual floor around $1,200/oz.[tracking: JDST, GDX