2016 Mock Draft

16 days until the draft. Just like last year, I’m going to take a shot at trying to predict the first round of our draft.

And just like last year, I assume I’ll be way off.

Here we go!

Pick 1.01, Mealey + Goss — Ezekiel Elliott, RB Dal

If anyone else goes 1.01, I’ll eat my foot. Balls in your court, Mealey.

This is a pretty easy choice. I’ve maintained elsewhere that if it was me, I’d be selling the pick for the king’s ransom I know they could get instead of taking the dice roll myself. Take 3+ first round picks for a rookie thats never touched the ball, then use your early (maybe even 1.01?) 2017 pick to get an even better RB? That is a pretty solid return.

That being said, Elliott is a hell of a player to build a solid team around, and we’ve seen what a good draft can do for a team.

Pick 1.02, Falcone + Black— Sterling Shepard, WR NYG

These next 3 picks are tricky, because they could all easily go here and the order is almost impossible to predict. I’m gonna do it anyway.

One thing is for sure — the number 2 pick is a WR, and I think it’s Sterling Shepard. He hasn’t been mocked this high, as Treadwell seems to be the consensus player with the true WR1 ceiling, but Shepard’s good camp and immediate WR3 potential playing across from OBJ in a pass-happy offense is something I can’t see them pass up. They could trade out here as they’re a bit WR heavy, but assuming they don’t I think Shepard is their man.

Pick 1.03, Hallahan + Lederer —Laquan Treadwell, WR MIN

Treadwell doesn’t make it past here. They are probably looking to get Shepard themselves here, but I think they’re pleasantly surprised to be getting Treadwell with pick 3.

Treadwell’s stock dropped after his 40 times came out, but he is the only WR in the draft that seems to have the potential to be the true WR1 on their team. With Treadwell coming into preseason as 3rd on the depth chart, it’s possible this team tries to trade out (I think the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th teams all could make moves), but I don’t think there are many buyers and they are happy to get Treadwell.

Pick 1.04, Mealey + Goss — Josh Doctson, WR WSH

Mealey and Goss are up again, and I think they go with Josh Doctson with pick 4. They already grabbed an elite RB (an immediate top 15 player a la Todd Gurley), so getting another high ceiling rookie is going to be great for them. Injuries could keep Doctson from breaking out early, but I think they’re alright with that.

Doctson doesn’t have great size, but he’s very versatile and in an offense with not much competition.

Pick 1.05, Bartell —Michael Thomas, WR NO

The first of three 1st round picks for Bartell, which I think is really, really good for his team.

I can’t see Bartell passing on Michael Thomas here. 6'3" in a pass heavy offense led by Drew Brees? That has “Head” written all over it, and for good reason. His role should not clash with Cooks at all, so Thomas could be a solid WR1 he can build around, which he desperately needs.

Pick 1.06, Poulton + Milstead — Corey Coleman, WR CLE

A few months ago, Coleman would have been an excellent pick at 1.02. Now I think Gordon returning scares enough people away for him to fall at least this far, maybe even further.

This team has needs at both WR and RB, so I could be completely wrong here. But with how much the Browns have been raving about Coleman, if they don’t take him here someone else behind them would be thrilled.

Pick 1.07, Martino — Derrick Henry, RB TEN

This is a rough spot to be in. At this point, all of the known high-ceiling and/or immediately productive players are gone. Derrick Henry won’t do much to fill a huge vacancy for this team at RB, but he has a lot of potential — if he can see the field with the 2014 rushing champion clearly ahead of him on the depth chart.

Pick 1.08, Bartell — Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL

I think Bartell is a bit upset to see Henry go right before him and decides to pull the trigger on a RB. Dixon isn’t especially exciting — an OK college RB in a crowded backfield — however Baltimore loves to run the ball, so even if he doesn’t get many touches in 2016, Head probably isn’t playing for 2016 anyway.

Dixon is probably the back in this draft with the best chance to be the back on a high volume running team, so I think he is fine with Dixon here.

Pick 1.09, Bartell —Tyler Boyd, WR CIN

This is the most interesting pick of the 1st round for me, and the spot I think there is most likely to be a move. Bartell moved Tate to get into the 1st round again, and he certainly needs depth at WR. Boyd has looked good in camp and gets to play opposite AJ Green (which could be good or bad — no WR on the same team as Green has been consistently fantasy viable), and will be a day 1 starter will lots of opportunity.

But Head has taken a WR, he’s taken a RB…and he needs a QB. Is he the one to pull the trigger on the first Eagle of the draft? Boyd would be a solid pick here, and I think he could have teams knocking on his door, which is why you shouldn’t be surprised if he moves back to grab Wentz a little later.

Or maybe he just goes ahead and takes Wentz here and messes with people in the 2nd round expecting to grab him. This pick could be fun to watch.

Pick 1.10, Sarlo + Hark— CJ Prosise, RB SEA

This is an unfortunate draft for a team with such a huge need at RB. No RBs look like they’ll be immediately productive, and what’s left here are true rolls of the dice. There are a few WRs that could go here, but I think the need ends up being strong enough that they have to go RB.

With a propensity to target pass-catching RBs, Prosise would make the most sense here. He’s unlikely to take early down work from Rawls, but there is a lot of opportunity for Prosise to step into a pass catching role and be a reliable PPR option.

Pick 1.11, Hallahan + Lederer — Will Fuller, WR HOU

There are some RBs that would make sense as fliers here, but I think if you’re going BPA you have to go Fuller. He isn’t particularly exciting, and may have to compete with a somewhat reemerging Jaelen Strong, but if he gets the nod he can find decent production across from Hopkins where WRs have been able to put up decent points.

Pick 1.12, Mealey + Goss— Jordan Howard, RB CHI

There are 4+ different players who could go here. All of them won’t start, are buried on the depth chart, but could find themselves in big roles if a few things fall their way. These guys need more help at RB, so I think they grab one of them here. Langford has only looked alright and Howard will almost definitely take goal line work, which gives him a chance to be useful now and take a bigger role down the road.