2018 HDL Playoff Scenarios
With three weeks still to go in the regular season, there is a lot that can happen to impact everyone’s chance to sit on the Iron Throne. So let’s get to it.
PLAYOFF BOUND
1. The Three Eyed Pigeon (9–1) — Daenerys Targaryen
Black and Falcone are the only ones in the league that would compare themselves to the Mother of Dragons. The rest of the league would see them as the mother of pigeons or even compare them more realistically to Joffrey Baratheon (the son of incestuous Lannister twins) that no one likes, cheers for, and can’t wait to see gone.
Regardless, the reigning 2017 HDL champions have locked up their third consecutive playoff appearance and are in the running for first overall seed.
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: 2 wins, or 1 win and a Hallahan loss
1st Round Bye: one win
Division: And unless they lose out and BPou wins out while outscoring them by 170 points in that timespan, the division is theirs.
Key Tiebreakers: Wins over all current playoff teams.
Total Points: They hold an advantage here as they are 170 points from the 2nd highest team.
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 100%
2. House Hallederer (8–2) — Arya Stark
Arya Stark has turned out to be one of the best and most dangerous characters in the show (and one in whom many rumors are saying could end up on the throne at the end of the show). Like Daenerys when the show started, Arya was seen as a weak character. Over time, that changed as she has more blood on her hands than most others. Some may say the same about Hallahan who started the first two years in the HDL doing very little, then turning it on the last three years. Like Arya, Hallederer is continually underestimated. Some may even go as far to say they have a cupcake schedule. But it doesn’t matter, the 2016 champs are playoff bound.
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: They need to win out with Falcone/Black losing two games
1st Round Bye: Any combination of wins for them or losses for Troy that add up to 2.
Division: A win or Head loss has it locked up. Hallederer would need to lose out, Head win out and score 313 points more than Hallederer over the next three weeks.
Key Tiebreakers: Wins over both Troy and Cleve
Total Points: 3rd most, but enough to separate himself significantly in his division where it is the only place that would be relevant.
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 100%
ALL BUT LOCKED UP
3. House White Hype (7–3) — Gendry
Gendry is pretty B.A. when he throws around that meaty war hammer of his. But then there are times when he looks like just a normal dude. Bottom line, he is not someone you want to find yourself standing in front of on the battlefield. Yes, he is a bastard but at the end of the day, you look at him and just know, “eh, no big deal”…just like Troy.
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: Troy would need to win out and have Falcone/Black lose out and Hallahan lose 2 of his final three games.
1st Round Bye: Troy needs to win out and have either one of the other two scenarios above happen.
Division: Any combination of 3 that involves his wins and Cleve’s losses. However, if Troy and Cleve both win out (with Troy losing to Cleve), then Troy will need to make up the 82 point deficit behind Cleve.
Wildcard: Only way Troy doesn’t make the playoffs is if he loses out, Ian wins two games, Head wins out, BPou wins one game.
Key Tiebreakers: Wins over Cleve and Head
Total Points: This hurts him as he is 82 points behind Cleve, but over 300 above Ian/Newmike
Analytics: Chances he makes the playoffs 99.9%
JUST DON’T SCREW IT UP
4. House FIRSTUTUMUGS (6–4) — Cersei Baratheon
Is there a more dangerous and treacherous character than Cersei? She takes advantage of all that she can. She uses all of her resources to build upon what she has to take out her enemies. And despite a few losses here or there, she is a force to be reckoned with. And just like Cersei, Cleve will do whatever it takes to win. No one wants to face Cleve at full strength, because you never know what you are gonna get. Cersei is a master of chaos, and right now, there is chaos BEYOND THE WALL. Who will come out of that division on top?
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: Nope
1st Round Bye: Would need to win out, Troy lose at least 2 games (and stay above Troy in points for), and have Hallahan lose out.
Division: He needs one more win than Troy in the next three weeks and needs to maintain his lead in points for if there is a tie. Regardless, he has to beat Troy in order to win the division.
Wildcard: Two wins guarantees a wildcard birth. Only way he doesn’t make the playoffs is if Head and Ian both end up with 2 more wins moving forward than Cleve, BPou has one more win moving forward than Cleve, and Cleve would need to lose out. If Cleve beats Ian, he is a lock for the playoffs.
Key Tiebreakers: Wins over Ian, BPou, and Head
Total Points: His 82 point lead over Troy could be key.
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 90%
5. House Milpou (6–4) — Melisandre
Melisandre is just pure dark magic. BPou and Milzy are pure dark magic. If Chelsea gives birth to Shadow twins, it would be prudent for all of us to just award BPou the permanent winner and lets all just move on.
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: Win out, Falcone lose out, Hallahan lose 2, Troy lose 1, and either Cleve lose 1 or BPou beat him in total points for, AND score 170 more than Falcone over the next 3 weeks.
1st Round Bye: All of the above and either Hallahan or Troy/Cleve’s scenarios happening.
Division: Win out, Falcone lose out, and outscore Falcone by 170 over the next three weeks.
Wildcard: 2 wins and it’s locked up. Or 2 losses by either Ian and Head. If Head wins out, BPou only wins one game and Ian wins two, BPou could find himself, like last year, on the outside looking in…because Ian beat him. Member? I member.
Key Tiebreakers: Wins over Head and Hallahan
Total Points: Currently has 2nd most, which will be key in tiebreakers
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 75%. Keep in mind, tough division and key tiebreakers not in his favor.
FIGHT TO THE DEATH
6. House Head of Frankenfurg (5–5) — Sansa Stark
Sansa is known for not being able to make up her mind. She sways back and forth. Sometimes she makes great moves. Sometimes she finds herself in very precarious circumstances. She is unlikely to end up on the thrown at the end of the show, you aren’t sure if you want to root for her, but she IS still alive. Like Sansa, Head has that going for him. He is STILL ALIVE. Guess that means it’s time for him to start buying again even though he was a seller two weeks ago. After losing to Abaum this week, he will go back to being a seller.
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: nope
1st Round Bye: nope
Division: nope (ok, well he could win the division, but he needs to win out and Hallahan lose out AND score 334 more than Hallahan in the next three weeks.)
Wildcard: He needs to pass either BPou, Cleve, or Ian to do it. He has the tiebreaker over Ian, so if it just comes down to those two, he has it. But it will get interesting if there is a three way time between them two and either Cleve or BPou because we will have to go to points for. Head has an 82 point advantage right this moment. So bottomline, if you win at least two more, you should be fine.
Key Tiebreakers: Ian. Just Ian.
Total Points: 82 point advantage over Ian.
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 67%
7. A Team Has No Name (5–5) — Tyrion Lannister
Tyrion has always had an uphill battle in his life. He has had to earn everything. Ian is no different. Taking over for Martino, he had little to work with and did dump his best player right away like a dope. But even more so, like Tyrion, Ian is always underestimated. BUT he did beat BPou and is doing some more damage. You can’t look past him despite his stature.
Playoff Scenarios
1st Seed: nope
1st Round Bye: nope
Division: Highly unlikely, but he would need to win out, have Cleve and Troy both needs to lose 2 games.
Wildcard: Needs to outperform either Cleve, Ian or BPou. See all the notes above. but its the most uphill battle.
Key Tiebreakers: Troy and BPou
Total Points: Not looking good. 82 behind Head. Not close to the rest of the tier above.
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 50%
BLEEDING OUT
8. Malty Full Body Autumnal Mead (aka As Rich as a Lannister (4–6) — The Mountain
Like the Mountain, it was thought that without a doubt Calhoun was someone not to be reckoned with. Hence why he was picked 6th in the division draft. However, the end was swift and bloody for Calhoun. Its all but over for him.
Playoff Scenarios
Wildcard: Slight Chance. He would need to win two more than both Head and Ian at this point, and have no more losses moving forward than Billy or Sarlo.
Key Tiebreakers: Billy and Ian
Analytics: Chances he makes the playoffs 14%
9. House VIVA LA FRANCE (3–7) — Stannis Baratheon
He started out strong. Took down a key threat to the throne in week one. But losing the battle of Winterfell in week 5 vs. Sansa (Head) sent him to 1–4. It was a fatal wound. Yet another year for Sarlo on the outside looking in. Since trusting the Red Witch, it has only gone downhill from there. Since Hark came on board, this team has missed the playoffs every year. Coincidence???
Playoff Scenarios
Wildcard: SLIGHTEST of slight chances. He would need to win out, Calhoun lose 1, BPou lose 2, Head lose out, Ian lose out.
Key Tiebreakers: Calhoun
Analytics: Chances they make the playoffs 2%
10. Master of Whisperers (3–7) — Robin Arryn
Robin thought he was a big deal, but he was more of a pain than anything. Billy is being that pain to all his opponents right now as his team is hitting his stride. I don’t think he makes the playoffs, but he is going to push for division captain next year.
Wildcard: SLIGHTEST of slight chances. He would need to win out, Calhoun lose 1, BPou lose 2, Head lose out, Ian lose out.
Key Tiebreakers: Sarlo
Analytics: Chances he make the playoffs 2%
IT’S THE END FOR YOU
11. The Mahommes Faced God (2–8) — Rob Stark
Rob Stark was the King of the North. His people loved him.
Marino is the People’s Champ. This league loves him.
Both are done.
12. You Know Nothing, Roy (2–8) — Margaery Baratheon
Both were positioned at the top…twice. But the end came suddenly and unexpectedly.
Playoff Scenarios
Nope. But next week’s matchup between these two teams should determine first overall pick.
