2019 Ceilings and Floors
Troy and I will be going through each team with what we see to be their best and worst case scenarios. Obviously, the best case scenario is you win the mug and worst case scenario is your team resembles Abaums. BUT, we’ll be laying out what we believe to be the realistic best and worst case scenarios. You’ll definitely disagree…find a way to deal with that that doesn’t involve telling me. We’ll be through the teams based on last years standings from worst to first.
12 — Mike Altbaum
Best Case (Troy) — In this scenario we start with the hardest task of them all looking to find the positives on Mike’s team. In all seriousness, I don’t think Mike’s team is as bad as it was the previous year. Best case scenario for Mike is Baker lives up to the hype and is a top 5 fantasy QB, Josh Jacobs turns out to be an RB1 in fantasy, and his WRs take the necessary steps forward to become reliable starters week in and week out. His team however is still in rebuilding mode and for the most part very young. I think best case is 5–6 wins, but I don’t see Mike back-dooring his way into a playoff spot.
Worst Case (Hallahan) — Back to back 1.01’s, can Abaum hit the trifecta? I think he can…here’s how…Baker Mayfield has already started to alienate the locker room; we’ve watched Ronald Jones lose out to an UDFA (who is still one the team), so the 6th round pick they brought in definitely qualifies as competition; Chris Godwin and OJ Howard cannibalize each other, assuming Winston is good enough to make either of them relevant; and the run first Dallas Cowboys pay their QB but alienate the wideout they over payed for and Amari looks more like late Raiders Amari than last years Cowboys Amari.
Troy’s prediction- 4–9 / 10th Seed
Hallahan’s prediction — 6–7 / 7th Seed
11 — Billy Davis
Best Case (Hallahan) — We’ve all given Billy plenty of bad reps, some he’s earned more than others, but the shrugger may not be a fair one. Billy may not be the most active in the trade market, but I think it’s less about indifference and more about trusting a plan. He’s got the 1.02 and and 1.11 this year and could get contributions from both of them. Add to that Russell Wilson being in contention for QB1 overall (new contract, new weapons, finally going to be unleashed), Aaron Jones getting a full year as the lead back, Nick Chubb continuing to grow, a healthy Hunter Henry, and hopefully 12 games of Tyreek Hill and I don’t think the boomlette is quite ready to contend for a playoff spot, but he’ll be right outside the top 6.
Worst Case (Troy) — I’ll be straight forward with this one. This team could easily be the worst team in the league and struggle to win more than a couple games. The quarterbacks and running backs are not bad, but the receiving core is. Worst case scenario for this team is Tyreek Hill misses a huge chunk/if not all of the 2019 season. If this happens the team could plummet. We could be looking at the team with the 1.01 in 2020 here.
Troy’s Prediction: 5–8 / 9th Seed
Hallahan’s Prediction: 3–10 / 11th Seed
10 — Nick Sarlo
Best Case (Troy) — Every offseason we think this could be the year Sarlo takes the step forward and becomes a contender. While he’ll probably fail to do that once again, it is a possibility. Luck could continue to get back to elite form. Mixon, Kerryon and Mack could all emerge as quality/if not elite fantasy starters. Corey Davis and Devante Parker will definitely have breakout years! I don’t think Sarlo can beat the top teams in the league however, even if everything falls into place. I think best case scenario for Sarlo is a playoff birth, maybe an upset or two, but eventually falling short as far as the championship game.
Worst Case (Hallahan) — Worst case scenario is probably that Devante Parker actually is this teams best WR. Troy is right though, Sarlo is the perrenial pre-season overachiever, but based on actual experience and looking at the roster it’s not too difficult to tell yourself some unfortunate stories. Based on coaching and player personnel, Kenny Golladay being DET WR1 may not count for much; Mixon may be the “lead back” but Gio still exists and they drafted two other RB; Speaking of “lead backs,” Marlon Mack has a guy who caught 60 passes behind him; what if Philip Lindsay isn’t a fluke?; what if Ronald Jones isn’t the worst RB ever?; Corey Davis and Devante Parker will breakout eventually, right? Not hard to see this team, despite the name value, contending for a top-4 pick again.
Troy’s Prediction — 8–5 / 5th seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 8–5 / 5th seed
9 — Dan Marino
Best Case (Hallahan) — Realistically, the best case scenario for this team is probably not as best as Marino would like it to be. That being said there’s a scenario in which Mahomes is QB1 again, Philip Lindsay picks up where he left off, Tyler Lockett continues his efficient play without Doug Baldwin around, and Dante Pettis is the WR1 in an improved offense. If all of that and a few other things break well, Marino could retain his title of “Meh.”
Worst Case (Troy) — This could get pretty ugly. I think this is the year Marino could go from “meh” to “mess.” Other than Mahomes this team isn’t looking too good, and it is possible Mahomes completely comes back to Earth and isn’t lighting the scoreboard up every week. Marino holds a ton of draft picks and certainly is in rebuilding mode. Unfortunately, the immediate results will likely lead to a rough season.
Troy’s Predicition — 2–11 / 12th seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 2–11 / 12th Seed
8 — Ian Crosby
Best Case (Troy) — This team isn’t looking good. The QBs and RBs are okay but the receivers are bad. Best case scenario for this team is similar to the other bad team’s in the league. Win a few games and claw at that 6th playoff spot. If Wentz gets back to MVP form, Dalvin Cook stays on the field, and the Titans decide to actually use Derrick Henry, it is entirely possible. With the way the league is built right now a lot of teams have a chance at that spot. Just going to come down to who can surprise some people.
Worst Case (Hallahan) — Billy and Ian’s teams are basically that Spiderman meme. Good QB and RB and wasteland everywhere else. But what if Dalvin Cook can’t stay healthy? What if Philip Rivers realizes he likes his kids and Carson Wentz isn’t actually an MVP QB? What if Derrick Henry running over Jackonsville Jaguars secondary is the highlight of his career? If like two of those things happen and then everyone else plays like they’re expected, Ian is contending for the 1.01.
Troy’s Prediciton — 5–8 / 8th seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 4–9 / 9th seed
7 — Steve Calhoun
Best Case (Hallahan) — This team’s 7th place finish from last year probably exceeds the best case scenario for this year. BUT! Let me paint you a picture in which Calhoun finishes 6–7 and misses out on the final wild card spot thanks to the UBER WILDCARD! OBJ and BayMay are BFFs, AJ Green stays healthy for all 16; Devonta Freeman returns to RB1 levels, Lamar Miller is the lead back on a high powered offense, Latavius Murray replicates Mark Ingram’s production in NO, Mark Andrews is a top-12 TE, and Jimmy G is a top-8 QB.
Worst Case (Troy) — This team really spiraled downhill. Calhoun is another candidate for the 1.01 next year along with pretty much all the above listed teams. Worst case for Calhoun would be just that. Odell and A.J Green are the last remaining players on this team and if either dissapoint or get injured, he would easily be in that conversation.
Troy’s Prediciton — 3–10 / 11th seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 3–10 / 10th seed
6 — BPou
Best Case (Troy) — I really was hoping I wouldn’t get assigned this segment. Telling all the good things about Bpou’s team is not something I really look forward to doing. Bpou’s team is actually looking good right now. I don’t know how he does it but Bpou could be contending in the playoffs again this year. We know Kamara and Barkley are gonna be studs. If his receiving core can stay consistent and put up good weekly scores, Bpou could be a force. He also needs Dak or Trubisky to take another step and be a solid QB1 which is possible. A second mug certainly is not in the cards here but a playoff birth, and maybe even squeaking out a playoff win could happen.
Worst Case (Hallahan) — Barkley and Kamara are great and will be again, but that doesn’t mean they can’t finish worse than BPou is expecting. Barkley’s offense has gotten worse which will mean fewer red zone attempts and as his teams best offensive weapon he’ll get higher usage (a good thing), which will result in more opportunity to be injured (not a good thing). NO clearly doesn’t want Kamara to have a Barkley-esque workload and this year the other RB in NO won’t have a 4 game suspension to start the year. Speaking of regression, Eric Ebron will be usurped by Devin Funchess as the go-to redzone option in IND. And it doesn’t take the most vivid of imaginations to see a scenario where Tyler Boyd, Sterling Shepard, Marvin Jones, and Chris Carson just aren’t that great when it comes to fantasy football. I’m looking forward to BPou blaming the Uber Wildcard for his lack of playoff appearance despite having the 8th best record in the league.
Troy’s Prediction- 7–6 / 6th Seed.
Hallahan’s Prediction — 7–6 / 6th Seed.
5 — Andrew Bartell
Best Case (Hallahan) — Head is many things and as the guy who coined the phrase “aggressively mediocre” we know that he is self-aware. Here’s his path to mediocrity — Sony Michel has the same role as last year. Miles Sanders absence in early off-season activities allows Jordan Howard to have primary back duties and redzone work for a high powered offense. Damien Williams continues where he left off with last year’s playoffs. Will Fuller is healthy for at least 14 games and Brandin Cooks shines as the WR1 on a great offense. It won’t hurt to have a top-4 QB in Deshaun Watson either.
Worst Case (Troy) — And finally we reach the last of the teams that are bad. This team finished top 5 last year, but that certainly won’t happen again. There’s a better chance of this team finishing last then there is it finishing top 5 again. I think worst case scenario for Head is Sony Michel loses touches to Damien Harris, Jordan Howard loses his role to Miles Sanders, the Chiefs realize Damien Williams isn’t good and this team landslides.
Troy’s Prediction — 5–8 / 7th seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 5–8 / 8th Seed
4 — Dave Hallahan
Best Case (Troy) — Finally we get to the contenders. Best case for Hallahan is Aaron Rodgers is QB1, James Conner and Tarik Cohen repeat their 2018 performances, and Leveon Bell gets back to elite form. The wide receivers are going to be solid every week, so if Hallahan can get these things to fall in place, he’ll be a serious threat to win a mug in 2019.
Worst Case (Hallahan) — Well this isn’t gonna be fun…Who is the new OC in GB? That’s right the dude from Jacksonville, awesome. Week 17, the first week back from injury, James Conner and Jaylen Samuel had even snaps at RB. No way that happens all year. Le’Veon Bell missed a whole year, just means he’s fresh, right? Cooper Kupp tore his ACL in week 8, plenty of time to get right for the start of the season, right? Tarik Cohen scored more touchdowns via receiving than any RB ever, totally sustainable.
Troy’s Prediction — 9–4 / 4th Seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 12–1 / 1st Seed
3 — Troy Altbaum
Best Case (Hallahan) — This team took big strides finishing in 3rd place last year and could contend for a mug this year. Christian McCaffrey is on the juice and as Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman taught us, that’s always a good thing. Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, and Keenan Allen were all top-12 last year and could all finish within the top-10 this year. Add to that corp two players who are athletic freaks and finally comfortable in their offense — Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins — and this team could be quite dangerous.
Worst Case (Troy) — Troy’s team is good on paper, but is still lacking depth. if Leonard Fournette plays 3 out of 16 games (entirely possible), Sammy Watkins stays on his career track (very likely), and Arob doesn’t take any steps forward with Trubisky (stinky) this team will dissapoint. It’s possible Troy could miss the playoffs and go another you without sniffing a mug.
Troy’s Prediction — 10–3 / 2nd Seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 9–4 / 4th Seed
2 — Dave Falcone
Best Case (Troy) — Everything that we all fear. Falcone’s team eclipses full dominance and runs over the league. First ever undefeated season? Possible. Multiple 300+point performances? Possible. Todd Gurley’s knees being okay? nah, hes fucked there. Other than that, if things fall into place for Falcone we could be looking at the 2nd two-time HDL champ.
Worst Case (Hallahan) — Everything that we all fear. Falcone’s team eclipses full dominance and runs over the league. First ever undefeated season? Possible. Multiple 300+point performances? Possible. Todd Gurley’s knees being okay? nah, hes fucked there. Other than that, if things fall into place for Falcone we could be looking at the 2nd two-time HDL champ.
Oh…worst case for him. It’s already being realized. Todd Gurley is dead. Zach Ertz is the 2nd best TE on his real NFL team. Hopkins TD regress due to a healthy Will Fuller. Mike Evans loses on volume and we all realize he was never really good. Jarvis Landry enjoys watching OBJ score a lot…even with all of that worst case for this team probably looks like 4th place.
Troy’s Prediction — 11–2 / 1st seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 11–2 / 2nd seed
1 — Cleve Bryan
Best Case (Hallahan) — David Johnson is resurrected. Antonio Brown clicks w/ Carr. Robby Anderson is a top-24 WR and weekly starter. Julio Jones scores touchdowns. Melvin Gordon continues to trip his way into 3 TD days. And our first two-time champ becomes our first back-to-back champ and our first three-time champ. At least we won’t have to worry about him celebrating.
Worst Case (Troy) — Cleve’s team finally shows its signs of age and takes a step back. There’s no way this team isn’t competitive in 2019, but it might not be the championship caliber that we’ve seen for a few years now. If the AB experiment in Oakland fails, David Johnson doesn’t return to elite form, and Gronk stays retired, this team won’t be at the top of the totem. I don’t see this team not making the playoffs, but a first round exit would all but close up Cleve’s HDL career.
Troy’s Prediction — 9–4 / 3rd Seed
Hallahan’s Prediction — 10–3 / 3rd Seed
