2019 — Week 2 Power Rankings
BUY, SELL, HOLD EDITION
What an awesome first week! Congrats to the winners and buck up you losers! There is a lot to react to and surely some of you will be overreacting! DON’T! I’m here to help! With the power rankings, I’ll be giving one player performance I’m buying, selling, and holding. I’m always right and I should charge you for this, but I won’t…for now. Weeks 7–10 may be behind a paywall. Another new edition this year (unless it becomes too tedious) will be OP (optimal points). In addition to actual points (AP), I’ll be tracking teams OP. After one week, I don’t know that it tells us too much but over the long-run I believe it will tell us which teams are actually good.
OK, TO THE POWER RANKINGS!
CHICKEN LITTLE TIER
12 — DAN MARINO (0–1, 121.1 AP, 162.2 OP, -2)
Well, you were my pick for 12th. Then you weren’t. But your birthday is over and reality as set in. Dan’s optimal lineup would have only won against two teams actual lineup. That’s not a good look.
Buying Philip Lindsay’s performance. I’ll let you decide if that’s a good thing or not. The Broncos looked like a bottom three team in the league. I think Lindsay will have a consistent role and may have a big game here or there, but 10.6ppg is going to be what I expect the rest of the way as compared to the 15+ppg he averaged last year.
Selling Tyler Lockett’s performance. Lockett salvaged the day with a 44-yd TD, but had only one reception on five targets. After the game he talked about the coverage he was seeing that dictated his usage, but I expect for SEA to find more ways to get him involved.
Holding TJ Hockenson’s performance. Hockenson took a little less time to show he was worth a 1st round pick than the Lions’ previous first round TE. But Arizona is going to be a bottom of the league defense all year and Hockenson will certainly face tougher match-ups and DET will likely start leaning more toward the run in those tougher games.
THE ELLIS BOYD REDDING TIER
11 — STEVE CALHOUN (0–1, 171.4 AP, 205.3 OP, +1)
A surprise performance, but is it sustainable? Outside of the QB position, there weren’t a lot of points left on the bench so if he expects his team to be in the 170+ range everyone’s going to have to stay healthy.
Buying Mark Andrews performance — I don’t think Andrews will put up 26.8 ppg or even be a top-3 TE like he was on Sunday. BUT I do expect for Andrews to be one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets and to have plenty of usable weeks.
Selling Devonta Freeman’s poor performance — Freeman and Smith had a pretty much even snap share on Sunday and neither of them did much. I think as soon as this week against Philly and back at home the ATL offense as a whole picks up and Freeman puts up top 12-RB numbers.
Holding John Ross’ performance — Like Andrews the level of production isn’t sustainable, but with Cincy being on the field for 70 offensive plays (close to 40% increase from last year’s average) the offense as a whole is 📈and if John Ross can use his speed to make big plays with any consistency he’ll finally see his value start to regain.
10 — MIKE ALTBAUM (0–1, 158.8 AP, 198.7 OP, -3)
“I could just be too high…”
Those were the most important words in my week 1 write-up for Abaum’s team. There is still some upside on this team, but I had myself a little reality check and I expect Abaum to be much happier with this ranking.
Buying Josh Jacobs and Calvin Ridley’s performance — I spoke about Ridley in my bold predictions article and I think he’ll continue to benefit from efficient targets on the opposite side of Julio. Josh Jacobs looks like he’ll have bellcow opportunity week in and week out.
Selling Chris Conley’s performance — Conley’s TD came in garbage time and prior to that he was putting together a nice day, but not a huge one. I think long-term Conley would do better with BDN that Gardener Mustache. Mustache looks more comfortable in the shorter areas of the field.
Holding Ronald Jones’ performance — It wasn’t great, but he did look like the best RB on the Bucs offense. We’ll see how this one develops.
9 — ANDREW BARTELL (0–1, 136.3 AP, 205.4 OP, -1)
While several teams had players who probably had their best week in Week 1, I think Head’s team probably had the most players who had their worst game of the year in Week 1. Things are likely to look up, but how far is the question.
Buying Deshaun Watson and Damien Williams’ performance — Watson there was little question surrounding. If he’s healthy he’ll be in the convo for QB1 overall. Williams had questions around his past workload and then McCoy being brought in. McCoy may cap his ceiling, but it looks like they’ll both have relevant rolls as — and this has always been the most important part of Williams’ resume — running backs on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Selling Brandin Cooks performance — He’ll have these weeks. But he’s a plug and play type player.
Holding Sony Michel and Jordan Howard — Both are RB on offenses that should score a lot of points, but they’re also in backfields that could cause fantasy owners some frustrations.
8— BILLY DAVIS (0–1, 180.9 AP, 204.4 OP, +1)
A nice performance basically without Tyreek Hill is a good sign. But actually not having Tyreek Hill for the next 4–6 weeks is not a good thing. If Hill made it through the week healthy this team would be up a tier. Alas…
Buying John Brown’s performance — This was a big week, but the 10 targets shows it isn’t a fluke. Josh Allen as his QB will mean there are some bust weeks, but John Brown looks like the top target on this offense and his big play ability is still there.
Selling Aaron Jones’ performance — Green Bay will get it together soon and Aaron Jones will be the lead back on a high powered offense moving forward.
Holding Christian Kirk’s performance — 4/32 isn’t what Billy was hoping for, but those 12 targets are a good sign. I think the breakout is coming.
7 — IAN CROSBY (0–1, 198.3 AP, 217.7 OP, +3)
Ian had the smallest discrepancy between AP and OP. Despite only 6.8 points last week, the Guice injury is a big one for Ian as it means more starting time for the likes of Rashad Penny and Dallas Goedert.
Buying Dede Westbrook’s performance — Well, kind of. His 15 point total was boasted by a TD. Those are hard to rely on and 5/30 isn’t that awe-inspiring. But as I mentioned with Chris Conley, I think Garnish Misuse will prefer short-range targets and this will boast Dede.
Selling Derrick Henry’s performance — He’ll be a solid RB2 this year, but I’m not banking on too many 1 reception, 75 yards, 1 TD performance from Henry.
Holding Michael Gallup’s performance — This Dallas offense has finally entered the 21st century. Dak looked good and he spread the targets around. I feel like Gallup flew under the radar this off-season, but he could end up being an impact player.
THE SCRAPPY DOO TIER
6 — NICK SARLO (1–0, 170 AP, 225.8 OP, E)
Despite a huge performance from Sammy Watkins, Sarlo’s team didn’t score like the top-tier teams. Like his opponent, I think a few of Sarlo’s players saw their worst weeks of the year.
Buying Darren Waller’s performance — Much of what Gruden told us during the off-season came to fruition in week 1. Part of that was the positive buzz around Darren Waller. He played a 100% of the offensive snaps and saw 30% of the targets. As the TE position that’s more than enough to maintain a top-8 position.
Selling Joe Mixon’s poor performance — What world is it that John Ross is scoring 30 fantasy points and Joe Mixon can’t break 5? It won’t happen again.
Holding Corey Davis’ performance — A goose-egg? Gross. Despite leading the team in routes run, Davis saw only three targets and couldn’t bring in any of them for a catch. I’d assume Sarlo is running out of patience with Davis, but he’s still rostering Parker, so who knows?
5 — CHRIS BLACK (1–0, 180.9 AP, 218.8 OP, -1)
A wide range of performances from Chris’ players and the only team with a 0 in the optimal lineup, thanks JJ Watt. Some positive outlooks for a team with a lot of question marks. The Patriots look poised to let the NFL decide AB’s fate, so he could be playing some games as soon as this week.
Buying David Johnson’s performance — His 137 yards from scrimmage would have been his third most in 2018. The Kingsbury offense has seemingly done at least one thing right get DJ the ball in space.
Selling Mark Ingram’s performance — As early as the first drive Baltimore sprinkled in all three backs. Ingram has this week against Arizona and then 📉. Lamar Jackson only ran three times in the game and Justice Hill could increase his role as well. Both would take away from Ingram’s touches.
Holding Larry Fitzgerald’s performance — Old man saw 14 targets on Sunday and I assume that will continue. But I also think Kirk will start turning his targets into production which may temper Fitz’s impact going forward. He’s a solid hold right now.
4 — DAVE HALLAHAN (1–0, 169.3 AP, 228.1 OP, -1)
LAMAR JACKSON SZN.
Buying Lamar Jackson.
Selling bad performances from MIN and PIT players — Minnesota only threw the ball 10 times. TEN TIMES! I think they want to run the ball a lot this year, but they’ll never throw for that few of times again. And PIT struggles against NE. They’ll bounce back.
Holding Chris Godwin’s performance — The TB offense didn’t come out guns a blazing like many had hoped. Godwin salvaged his day with a TD, but Winston could cap his ceiling.
THE BEYONCE KNOWLES TIER
3 — BRETT POULTON (1–0, 267.7 AP, 302.6 OP, +2)
The number one spot wouldn’t have been high enough to satisfy BPou, so here he is at 3. When Barkley and Kamara are your number 3 and 4 scoring RB, you’re gonna have a good week.
Buying Austin Ekeler’s performance — Thank you Melvin Gordon. Will Ekeler score 40 points each week? No. But he’s clearly a very good running back on a very good offense and is going to see the bulk of that teams work out of the backfield.
Selling DJ Chark — See Conley, Chris. Also, you know it was a good week when the performance I’m selling was and is on your bench.
Holding Tyler Boyd and Tyrell Williams’ performances — Boyd had a decent week but didn’t turn is 11 targets into a ton of production. If John Ross is a real thing how much will it effect Boyd? Tyrell Williams led the Raiders in routes run and yards. He’ll likely be the teams #1 WR going forward and maybe it’s time for me to get with the times, but I’m not sure how valuable that position is long-term. Williams should be in the WR2 discussion all year though.
2 — TROY ALTBAUM (1–0, 266.9 AP, 302.2 OP, E)
Well, so much for scaling back Christian McCaffrey’s workload. This team is good. And they’ve got some depth. Falcone has been put on notice.
Buying Dalvin Cook’s performance — Health is probably the biggest question. Minnesota wants to run the ball. Dalvin Cook is going to be the guy doing that. It was a good week one performance and I think it’ll continue.
Selling…I don’t know? — What happened on Sunday that you don’t believe is repeatable for these players? Goff’s poor performance is the closest thing I can get to a sell.
Holding the Patriots players — Josh Gordon and James White both had decent weeks. With Antonio Brown potentially in the mix, it’ll be interesting to see how everyone else is effected.
1 — DAVE FALCONE (1–0, 179.9 AP, 252.7 OP, E)
As I said above, this team has been put on notice. A lot of points left on the bench, but a lot of players that are hard to pull from the lineup. We’ve talked about Falcone’s depth hurting him before and in Week 1 that happened. It’s certainly a good problem to have, but it will occasionally be a problem.
Buying Zach Ertz’s performance — And not in a good way. 7 targets is good for a TE, but it’s not what you want after Ertz’s 2018. I think his 2019 will look more like his 2017.
Selling Devante Adam’s poor performance — He’ll rebound nicely…and soon.
Holding Todd Gurley’s knee very gently.
