2021 HDL ROUND 1 PREVIEW
Not everyone is going to the dance. Six teams’ season is finished with nothing to play for until September of 2022. There is a draft between now and then though and the first six picks of the first round will look like this:
1.01 — Sarlo
1.02 — Sarlo (via Abaum)
1.03 — Calhoun
1.04 — Head
1.05 — Hallahan (via Falcone)
1.06 — Falcone (via Chris Black)
Enjoy those picks fellas, I know I’ll enjoy mine. Now to the things that matter:
#3 Marino vs #6 BPoü
These two lovebirds have already met twice this year, but BPoü would probably like to forget that. Marino outscored him by an average of 42 points across those two contests.
Marino’s AVG last 5 games: 186.4
BPoü’s AVG last 5 games: 184.3
Players to watch for Marino:
Mahomes vs LAC — Mahomes’ overall numbers shake out well. He’s QB4 on the year averaging 25.1 ppg. But Marino can’t afford for Mahomes to up his 6th sub-20 point performance of the year and this possibility isn’t off the table going up against LAC, the sixth stingiest defense in the league for opposing fantasy QB.
The RBs — Heading into the season with Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, and D’Andre Swift made it appear as if RB were the sure point of this team. After Akers injury, Marino was gifted Najee Harris. Again, all signs pointing up. The reality has been far from that. Harris is getting all the usage, but for a bad offense. Miles Sanders has gone from underutilized to oft-injured. D’Andre Swift has missed the last two games due to a shoulder injury. The first question is, who is healthy enough to get on the field? The second question is, which version of those RB will Marino get?
Players to watch for BPoü:
Adam Thielen vs His Ankle — A healthy Adam Thielen against Chicago’s middling pass defense would give BPoü quite the trio of WR (Hopkins vs DET and Adams vs BAL). Thielen seems unlikely to play and to add a twist, we may not know until Monday.
Double TEs — What’s better than one TE? TWO! That’s actually rarely the case in fantasy football, but when those TE are George Kittle and Dawson Knox in 2021 it may just be true. The volatility of the position makes me nervous, but these two guys have shown to be key parts of their offenses. BPou will need that to coninue.
PREDICTION
Closing out the season with the weeks second highest score and feeling spurned after not receiving his promised birthday gift, BPoü avenges his division loss by beating Marino 215.7–183.4.
#4 Troy vs #5 Billy
This divisional rematch includes two of the heaviest hitters in the league. Troy finished as the 2nd highest scoring team and Billy as the third. They split their division series 1–1, but both games were close as the combined margin of victory was only 16 points. We’re likely looking at a third battle this weekend.
Troy’s 5 game avg — 212.5
Billy’s 5 gave avg — 201.2
Players to watch for Troy:
The Covid Crew — Keenan Allen missed week 14 and has a short turnaround to a TNF game. He is reportedly vaccinated and would simply need two negative tests to be able to compete. Will his conditioning be up to snuff if he does suit up? I’ll add Dalvin Cook to this list because yesterday (as of this writing) his RB Roommate, Alexander Mattison, was added to the Covid list. We’ll see if Cook finds himself in the same boat.
The Raiders — Darren Waller has missed the last few games due to a knee injury. It would be hard to see his return as a bad thing for Troy, but does Waller’s return cap the ceiling of Renfrow?
Players to watch for Billy:
The QBs — Since returning from his mallet finger injury, Russell Wilson has struggled…that is until last week. Wilson put up 25.2 points and was seemingly cooking it up a bit for the first time in a long time. But this week he faces a Rams defense that just gave Kyler Murray hell. Cousins is coming off one of his worst performances in awhile to face the Bears who just got cooked by Aaron Rodgers. Making the right call won’t be easy, but it may be imperative.
Zeke and Freiermuth — A couldn’t think of a cute way to pair these two together, but I think they’ll also be potential difference makers. Zeke has been battling a knee injury for several weeks. It’s hampered him enough that even without Pollard suiting up on Sunday, Zeke was out carried 13–12 by Corey Clement. He’ll need to the find the endzone at least once, but preferably twice for Billy to feel comfortable (a real possibility going up against NYG). As for Freiermuth, this isn’t a matchup where you can afford many single digit performances and the Steeler’s TE is currently the only offensive player on either side projected for less than 10.
PREDICTION
The beleaguered Troy continues to make it happen despite injuries and takes down Billy the Kid by a score of 221.3–201.8.
THE TOP SEEDS
Ian and Newmike have been the leaders basically from the jump. Derrick Henry was a big part early, but even since his absence the reigning champs* haven’t missed a beat. Haven’t lost since their opener and they’ve only scored under 200 points twice this season (193.6 in week 7 and 193.9 in week 9).
Hallahederer took a different path to success. Dave has probably spent more time trying to make his team worse this year than he has better, yet here they sit winning 7 of their last 8 and coming off a highest points scored week to close out the season.
Ian’s 5 game avg — 247.02
Hallahan’s 5 game avg — 212.74
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
All of them. Just stay healthy fellas.
