2022 Season Preview
Year 9!
Welcome ladies and germs to our 9th season of the HDL. This season preview is brought to you by 6 of your leaguemates submitting rankings and me giving you something to hope for and something about which to worry. Enjoy!
LONG VIEW
12 — FALCONE (Avg Rank: 10.83; Best: 10th; Worst: 12th)
Dating back to last year, Falcone has been actively retooling his team. This culminated in a record setting number of draft day trades and leaving his starting backfield with Ameer Abdullah and Tyler Algier. Clearly, the noise Falcone is looking to make this year is by making a run for the 1.01. Consensus rankings suggest he’ll get it. That would be best case scenario!
That’s what he has to hope for, the 2023 HDL Rookie Draft. For his sake, hopefully he’ll have the 1.01 but even without it he’ll have his choice of 4 1sts (his own, Chris Black’s, Billy’s, and Ian’s). Pretty clear that his own pick is his best shot at the 1.01.
What to worry about? Namely, Sarlo.
11 — Sharklo (Avg Rank: 10.5; Best: 9; Worst: 12)
Sharklo is another team that hasn’t been quiet about their attempts to get this years 1.01. For my money, The Tortilla Flotilla is the best bet to land it. These guys see Falcone’s Abdullah/Algier backfield and raise them (under bid them?) a Kenneth Walker / Rachaad White backfield. Certainly Walker and White have more promising futures than Double As, but Walker is hobbled a bit to start the year and White looks to carve out a passing role dominated by Playoff Lenny last year.
Sarlo is obviously also looking forward to next year with 4 1sts of his own (his own, JT’s, Marino’s, and Troy’s). JT adds another viable option at the 1.01.
What to worry about? Falcone…and maybe Calhoun.
10 — Calhoun (Avg Rank: 10.16; Best: 9; Worst: 12)
In so many ways, Houn is building his dynasty team the right way. He’s using those early picks year after painstaking year to draft WR — the longterm foundation of a dynasty. And in so many ways, he is making perplexing decisions. Trading into the 1st round to draft a QB in a single QB league. Trading a first that is like to be top-3, and all but guaranteed to be top-4, to make up for an old bet.
But not all hope is lost, 2024 is coming (most likely). And Calhoun currently has 3 1sts (his own, Troy’s, and Chris Black’s).
What to worry about? Everything until then?
9 — JT (Avg Rank: 10.16; Best: 8; Worst: 12)
JT acquired a team in a little bit of a mess and is working to make it his own. Many of the moves he has made have set himself up well for the future. The trade for Antonio Gibson, however, appears to have been JT shooting himself in the leg. Gibson’s plummeting value has stalled thanks to a very convenient carjacking, but it’s hard to see Gibson holding long term value in Washington and running backs on second contracts and teams aren’t the safest bets.
JT, like his ranking buddy, is also looking forward to 2024. That’s when the rebuilding can kick into high gear. JT will have his own pick as well as Hallahans.
But things could get worse before they get better. We’ve seen that with Gibson already, Dameon Pierce looks like he may have been a bit of a diamond in the rough but he could be discarded by HOU before JT is ready to compete. JK Dobbins enigmatic recovery could zap him of his upside. But maybe one of his 5 QB will work out.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
8 — Head (Avg. 8.3; Best: 8; Worst: 10)
With a salary like his, who needs a competitive fantasy football team? While it’s hard to project Head as a contender right now, he has some nice pieces and could make some noise if things break right this year. As is always the case, his biggest hurdle is probably staying the course and not making drastic decisions.
Reasons to hope? He has them. Breece Hall, Waddle, Smith, Pittman, even Rhamondre, and a healthy Brian Robinson all are reasons to hope for the future. Add 5 picks in the first three rounds of 2023 (including 2 1sts) and this team could be on the way up.
As mentioned earlier, the worry here is that Head starts out hot and moves those picks for players that got full Jamaal Charles on him.
HOLDING ON
7 — Chris Black (Avg. 6.67; Best: 6; Worst: 7)
Considered very clearly on the cusp of a playoff team, Chris’ managerial moves certainly show he’s looking to make a push. Keeping the theory that he is just Cleve’s puppet manager alive, Chris has no 1st round picks in any available draft year. His next 2nd round pick will be made in 2025.
The good news is his team is getting younger! Things would have to go really right and really quick for this team to compete this year, but if the young guys like Etienne, Bateman, Pitts, Davis, Pickens, and Olave take steps in the right direction Chris may not be in no man’s land forever.
The worry, of course, is that no man’s land has two border territories. Competitive is one and the other is Sarlo’s perennial home.
6 — BPOU (Avg. 6.33; Best: 6; Worst: 7)
“That’s not true! You guys just love to hate me. I have a mug. I missed the playoffs once, ONCE! Sure make fun of me for Kamara, but don’t cry to me when he drops 4 TD on you.” — BPou after reading whatever I would’ve written here
There is reason to hope here! Burrow could continue to improve and that offense could play faster now that he’s another year removed from his knee injury. Kamara doesn’t look like he’s gonna be suspended. If the Giants offense doesn’t completely implode, Barkley will be a big part of why. Adams had to leave practice for chest x-rays, but thankfully they just confirmed he does in fact have that dog in him.
The concern is those WR after Adams. Thielen’s best performance is still on BPou’s bench during the 2016 championship game. And those days are long behind him. Claypool got himself in the dog house a few times last year and is on a team due for passing game regression (not the positive kind). BPou also has no 1st round picks and will be making his next 2nd round pick the same year Chris does.
This is a make or break year for both of them, I feel.
THE REAL ONES
5 — Marino (Avg Rank: 4; Best: 3; Worst: 5)
The People’s Champ hopes to finally come through on the title he’s consistently failed to deliver on. This starting roster has the ability to compete any given week and several players on this team have realistic outcomes above their projects.
Surely, he’s hoping players like Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, DeAndre Swift, and Cam Akers all deliver on that potential upside. Add that to players like Mike Williams and Travis Kelce in high powered offenses and this team could be trouble, even for those ranked higher.
But potential upside also comes with risks. As does Najee Harris dealing with a “lisfranc sprain” during the offseason and due for usage regression in his sophomore campaign. David Montgomery had a heck of a finish to last years season, but that offense is straight trash and it’s hard to see him repeating that.
4 — Hallahederer (Avg Rank: 3.83; Best: 2; Worst: 5)
The critics are torn! And I suppose that is understandable. Hallahan made a push last year on the backs of Leonard Fournette, Darrell Henderson, James, Conner and Cordarelle Patterson. Each player has hurdles in the way of contributing like they did last year.
The hope is that 2–3 of those guys can do ~80% of what they did last year and that his WR corp (Diggs, Evans, and Sutton) can turn off-season hype into regular season production. This team has some depth. It would be a stretch to call this team the deepest ever, but it can withstand some setbacks.
The fear is that these RB breakdown and lose their role. That seems like the biggest and most realistic fear. The depth (Kirk, Cooks, Jacobs, CPatt) and Sutton all have their risks and could end up doing more harm than good.
3 — Troy (Avg Rank: 3; Best: 1; Worst: 5)
Troy has been a constant contender since taking over Mealey’s team and this year is no different. No one should be surprised if Troy joins the elite ranks of the Two Mug Club. How does that happen you ask?
Well, CMC, Cook, Allen, and Thomas all need to be and stay healthy. At tough feat for any set of four players, but these four have all had a riddled injury history and Troy’s team isn’t as deep as it once was. Aside from health, Kupp could see regression both due to historic highs last year but also the full-season addition of Allen Robinson in the redzone. 7 games of Brisset brings down Amari’s value. And we expect Williams to be the 1a in Denver’s backfield, but what if Melvin Gordon isn’t dust?
After writing that paragraph, I realized the hopes and fears are all mixed together. Much like life, amirite?
2 — Billy (Avg Rank: 2.83; Best: 1; Worst: 5)
Bill has methodically been building this team and has done a great job and building a contender. It’s a great mix of starting lineup power and young depth guys.
The hope is that draft capital spent to acquire Marquise Brown and Tyreek Hill turns into big usage and that Chris Godwin is back within the first few weeks of the season. JuJu Smith-Schuster could be a bounce back candidate with Mahomes throwing him the ball. Making the right start/sit decisions will be big for this deep roster.
What if Chef Russ just can’t cook? Green Bays offense is so slow they are rendered useless? Tua can’t throw? Another COD drops?
1 — Ian/Newmike (Avg Rank: 1.33; Best: 1; Worst: 2)
Like, what if they actually win three consecutive? We have to start over, right?