Bloodlines, Pedigree, and the Kentucky Derby

Commentating horse racing, I presume.

A 99-year-old World War II veteran died this month in Windsor Castle, located in Berkshire England. He was present in Tokyo Bay when the Japanese Empire unconditionally surrendered to end the War in 1945, and ended his naval service the following year. This was the end of the important and purposeful portion of his life as he would then go on to marry his third cousin, have some kids, and be Duke of Edinburgh for a bunch of decades. His wife was Queen of England and gained notoriety for being stoic, living a long time, and enjoying wealth that was unearned.

Birthrights are human creations that allow for mostly unremarkable people to be anointed to positions of perceived power they have no right to hold.

Birthrights in horseracing are nonexistent. Horses do not get a spot in the Kentucky Derby because their father was the Duke of Louisville. They do, though, get a boost from their bloodlines. The pedigree of the twenty derby horses are easily found from a quick google search, and a name will consistently be present amongst the lineage of the top contenders.

That horse is A.P. Indy.

Now A.P. Indy was born on the final day of March 1989. His father, or sire, was Seattle Slew who won the Triple Crown in 1977. A.P.’s grandfather, or damsire, was Secretariat who won the 1970 Triple Crown, winning the final leg of the Belmont Stakes in a still record time of two minutes and twenty-four seconds flat. A.P. Indy won the Belmont Stakes too but only did it in the third fastest time of two minutes, twenty-six second in 1992.

A.P. Indy’s three-year-old year, the most important in horse racing, began with a win at the Sanita Derby, and he was the second favorite for the Kentucky Derby. A fracture in one of his hoofs forced him out of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Pedigree is usually counterbalanced by luck in horseracing, and this would have ended the careers of less remarkable horses, but A.P. Indy and his Hall of Fame Trainer Neil Drysdale, were determined to save family honor at the Belmont. A.P. Indy won that race by 5 ½ lengths, far less than the 31 his Grandfather won it by in 1970, but still impressive. He proved it was not a fluke with a Breeder’s Cup Classic win in a hair over two minutes to finish his 1992 season. A.P. Indy earned nearly three million dollars in his short racing career, and then became the best Sire in horseracing for the next 25 years. His children, grandchildren, and now great grandchildren have worked hard, won large sums of money, and written their own histories. They did it with hard work, smart training, and a bit of luck. A life of supposed “god-given” ruling rights were not given to these horses and none went on to spill the family tea to Oprah or sign a deal with Netflix. Now onto the Derby.

This Saturday at the 2021 Kentucky Derby there is an opportunity for four more of A.P. Indy’s descendants to take a place in horse racing history, a prediction for each to help you all with your picks this weekend. Remember to stay within your budget, enjoy the race, and stay safe out there.

Four Horses of A.P. Indy

1. Essential Quality- Current betting favorite at 2 to 1. Drew the 14 post Tuesday morning so he would have a bit of work to do to get to a clean position near the rail, but he had the best prep season going unbeaten with a win at Bluegrass Stakes this year, and an impressive 2-year-old season before that. Essential Quality should place in the money at worst, and I do like him in most exacta and trifecta plays. A win here sets up a great storyline for the Preakness, but I have a hesitation due to the twenty-horse field, and quality of the top five or six horses in the Derby.
2. Hot Rod Charlie- The average better will see his fun name and juice his price. He is a solid horse with a Louisiana Derby win to his credit. I feel that he mostly breaks hearts Saturday and finds himself outside of the money. If you make a bunch of small trifecta and super plays I would limit his participation.
3. Super Stock- In the year of the Meme Stock this horse seems prophetic. He does have the pedigree of Seattle Slew, and drew a great post position of nine for the race. I like him as a trifecta play with both Essential Quality and Medina Spirit, the final horse to preview. He can win the race as his late charge in the Arkansas Derby showed talent. I like this horse to help people make money, and a win is not out of the question.
4. Medina Spirit- It has been a down year for Bob Baffert and he enters just this one horse in the race. Medina Spirit has John Velasquez riding him and has the pedigree of both Seattle Slew and Secretariat. I have been burned by Baffert horses all season so I am hesitant to give this horse too much play, but it is the Derby and it is Bob Baffert, so he will likely sneak into some bets.

Others of Note

1. Known Agenda- Drew the coveted one post, and with four 50 to 1 shots in the following four posts should be able to break clean and get to a solid spot for the first turn. I have him riding the rail most of the race and being the horse to catch down the stretch. Gun Runner back in 2016 is a horse of similar quality that had a remarkable late career. Known Agenda breaks clean and I see a money finish for him, the win could be tough as he will have several strong closers on him.
2. Rock Your World- Drew the post next to Essential Quality so he could pair with Essential Quality to move through the field and attempt a late break to win. Currently the second favorite and I can see him working his way through the field to a “of course” type of win.

My Probably Going to Change Fifty Time Predictions

Win: Essential Quality

Place: Known Agenda

Show: Rock Your World

Superfecta Fourth Place: Medina Spirit

Crazy Play: Take all the 50 to 1 shots and bet them to win for two bucks a piece. Then put two in an exacta box for two bucks for a total of sixteen dollars across all bets. It most likely will not hit, but the payout would be great.

Cheers.