HDL Week 3 Recap

I was too bust last week to get Pick ’ems out or Recap, but this week should return to business-as-usual.

Storylines

Inter-divisional Games Begin

We’re officially through the first official leg of the HDL season with divisional matches wrapping up. Because of the look most divisions take after the division draft, that means a lot more unpredictability every week with top teams facing off against each other.

Marino Wins the Belt!

One thing I feel obligated to point out is, after successfully defending the belt in Week 1 in an uncharacteristically low scoring match, Hallahan and Scott were taken down in Week 2 by Marino and a squad that is more competitive than everyone expected despite his rookie WR not yet playing. This is his first time winning the belt, making 8 total teams having held it with Marino looking to defend it in Week 3.

…Marino Loses the Belt!

Of course, the title wasn’t long for the world as Troy stripped the champ in a last minute MNF match up, winning it for the first time since Week 9 2016. Though he’s held the belt before, Troy will look for his first-ever successful belt defense against a hot team led by Falcone and Chris.

Never Tell Me the Odds

Oh I’m going to tell you them alright. This is the point in the season where some teams start to have to consider the cold hard truth. Maybe you’ve been plagued by injuries. Maybe your team has been under performing. Regardless of the reasons, we have 3 seasons of data that owners can look at to see how realistic their chances of making the playoffs are. I’m going to dig into each team and see just how realistic their chances are, along with a final record prediction.

We. Are. The 0%. 0–3 Record | 5 Teams in History | 0 Playoff Berths (0%)

Dropping 3 in a row is not good in the HDL. Not only does that mean 3 losses in your division against people you’ll be competing against, but it also puts you in a hole that has yet to be surmounted in HDL league history.

That’s right — no team has ever started off 0–3 and made it to the playoffs. So while looking at the 0–3 teams chances may seem like an exercise in futility, nevertheless we aim to be the bearer of really bad news.

Mike and Roy’s Dynasty (0–13)

This is going to be a rough year for Mike. Not only is it almost definitely going to be his first year missing the playoffs, his high-risk/high-reward gamble on players hasn’t hit at a high rate as he’d have hoped. While Parker looks good, the rest of his WR1-potential-at-WR-4-prices guys aren’t off to a great start. This was expected to be a down year, but I think losing would have been a little easier to swallow if a few more of these guys panned out. It’s really hard to predict a win for them averaging less that 100ppg and over 30 fewer than the next lowest team. I’m not guaranteeing he won’t be able to pull out a win, but at this point he can’t be seen as a favorite in any of his matches.

Hooked on a Thielen (4–9)

It’s a hard knock life for Brett. With possibly his best team on paper since 2015, the start to his season has looked a lot more like last year — he’s scoring just under 5 points total in the first 3 weeks this year than 2016 — but his luck certainly isn’t there, leading the league in points against. This is where my favorite saying comes in — regression is a bitch.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance! 1–2 Record | 13 Teams in History | 6 Playoff Berths (46%)

Losing winning only 1 game isn’t a great way to start the season, but it certainly isn’t a death sentence if you look at HDL history. Teams in this bracket should look to see if they are truly under performing (Cleve 2016) or can hammer out a deal with Satan in time (Brett 2015 + 2016), or if they’re destined to miss the playoffs like most teams here.

Not Today Satan (3–10)

Billy was able to pull out a win in Week 2, but coming in at 9th in points for is only going to get you wins against a handful of teams. Thats certainly the case I predict the rest of the season, with him able to squeak out a couple of wins against worse teams but lacking any real upside with what is essentially half a roster.

VIVA LA FRANCE (5–8)

Is there anything worse than finishing in the middle of the pack? At least last year’s molly-whoppin’ came with the #1 overall draft pick. The team is currently 11th in points for, but there is a good chance their fortunes are on the upward swing as we approach Week 4. It’s still hard to see them pulling off any wins except against the weakest of teams until they can put up a 190+score, so they are looking more like the 54% who miss than the 46% who make it. That’s still close to a coin toss and worth fighting for.

Dalvin and the Chipmunks (2–11)

They were able to pull off a win Week 1 and come relatively close in Week 3 with their highest score yet of 150. But I think this team is going to struggle to pass their current average of 135 points per week, and the only win I see as a good bet is against Mike later this season. Of course, not swapping your defensive FLEX player out before the game when you have 5 other players on your roster and your starter is ruled out on Friday afternoon doesn’t help either, but its not like anyone’s ever been kicked out of the league for that before.

The Kareem Cheeses (6–7)

This could potentially end up being a year where none of the 1–2 teams make it to the playoffs — the first time in HDL history — with none looking particularly strong against their coming onslaught of opponents. But if I had to pick one team to defy the odds and join the 46%, it would be Head and Frank. They have some serious firepower and RB, and could win any given week if they can find some consistency in their FLEX. If anyone is going to do it, its this team.

60% of the Time These Teams Make the Playoffs Every Time 2–1 Record | 13 Teams in History | 8 Playoff Berths (61%)

This is where your odds start to look pretty good, if far from a good thing. With 2 wins in your division you’re more likely than not to make it to the big show, though don’t get too comfortable — you could just as easily “Bartell ” it, which is what I’ll henceforth be describing going 2–1 and missing the playoffs after noticing he had done it 3 years in a row previous to 2017.

Hillary Clinton’s Email (8–5)

Chris Thompson’s continued success has to have this team a bit relieved, but the reality is they can’t feel great about leaning on him as much as they leaned on David Johnson previously. They have a bit of a depth problem — not a problem that makes them a bad team (by a long shot), but one that makes them hardly-locks against any of the top 6 teams in the league. I think the good money should be on them making it, but losing just one of their easy wins would put them in the danger zone. They don’t have much breathing room — not because they lost one, but because they aren’t likely to win 9 more games this year.

Mealey’s Taco-ver (7–6)

Speaking of danger zone, here is a team I predicted would miss the playoffs in the preseason. Winning 2 is hardly cause for concern, but averaging only 150 points per game — good for third in his own division — is a bit more alarming than his solid start. Things are going to have to fall his way this year a bit more, though there is a chance 7 wins is enough to lock up a playoff spot unlike the past.

MEHrino’s MEHn (5–8)

There’s been a lot of talk about Marino’s team being hot, but when I look at it now I just don’t see it. Sure he beat Hallahan and Scott in Week 2, but that was only with an uninspiring score of 155 against Hallahan and Scotts worst score since the middle of the 2015 season. So is it really that impressive?

In fact, Marino’s top score of 158 is the 12th highest score by any team this season and is 6th in points for, which doesn’t sound nearly as impressive as his 2–1 record or beating Hallederer. Maybe we should pump the breaks until he beats a big boy team with a big boy record.

Asshat Cowboys (11–2)

Speaking of big boys, Calhoun is one of the few teams who’s schedule actually gets ridiculously easier the rest of the season. And outside of his 123 point stinker in Week 1, has been averaging 194 points per game. I predict he is going to go on a run similar to Cleve’s 2016 and storm into the playoffs. He probably will miss a bye due to dropping a game to Falcone, but there is little reason to think Calhoun won’t be in the playoffs for the 3rd season in a row.

Is It December Yet? 3–0 Record | 5Teams in History | 4 Playoff Berths (80%)

Not much to say. These teams have been walking the walk, and there is little chance they miss with almost half the wins they need to get there already. It would take a pretty epic collapse for this to happen — one we’ve only seen once in 2014 by Hallahan and Scott.

Gutter Slugs (13–0)

There are only two 3–0 teams, and while neither is likely to be the first with a perfect record, its hard to find a single game where Falcone and Chris aren’t clear favorites. And if one of the two 3–0 teams is likely to do it, its the team who is undefeated in the toughest division in the league looking at an easier schedule, and not the team in the worst division in the league looking at a much more difficult one.

Gronk Lives Matter (12–1)

I realize now it’s not likely that all of these teams have such high scores, but it really is hard to see anyone beating them except each other. Variation will probably save the day and toss these guys at least a few losses, but at this point the only team I’m taking over Cleve is Falcone, and it’s hard to find another loss on his schedule. He’s off to a much hotter start last year than his Bradyless 2016 beginning.