HDL Week 5 Newsletter
Week 4 Recap
Everybody Gets One
The HDL officially has no winless teams as Mike takes down Sharklo and Brett and Adam beat Ian and Mike in the Battles of the Shites.
It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times
I was going to go back and see if a team has ever gone from posting the league top score to the league worst score, but its so unlikely that I’m not even going to bother. After putting up a score just shy of a 250 points in Week 3, Cleve had the league’s lowest score of 110 in Week 4.
Pressure Rising
Brett and Head both have teams that look capable of making the playoffs, but with 1–3 starts and tough divisional matches to close out the season against Falcone and Calhoun, their window to gather W’s is looking tight.
Don’t Call it a Comeback
Falcone and Cleve have been the talks of the town all season so far, but Calhoun has somewhat quietly put up the 2nd most points overall so far and is probably one of only 2–3 teams who actually look better going into Week 5 than they did Week 1.
Updated Outlooks
So Falcone caught me last week throwing out ridiculous playoff predictions with records that didn’t add up. As penance, I present updated playoff outlooks based on each team’s actual schedules complete with playoff odds to help people realize how hopeless things really are.
Gutter Slugs | Current 4–0 | Projected 12–1 | 100%
They’ll be favorites every week, but it’s too bold to predict they’ll have the first ever undefeated team.
Gronk Lives Matter| Current 3–0 | Projected 10–3 | >99%
110 has to be a bit concerning, as does Julio’s some of his players tendencies to disappear, but Cleve has the 2nd best team in the league and a cake division.
Asshat Cowboys | Current 3–1 | Projected 9–4 | 99%
Much more difficult schedule sharing a division with Falcone and two other bubble teams, but should feast during the inter-divisional games.
Hillary Clinton’s Emails | Current 2–2 | Projected 9–4 | 99%
I promise I won’t mention this team struggling without Bell and DJ. I don’t think I’ll have to; despite a relatively slow start, their inter-divisional game should be pretty easy and their only real divisional threat is Marino.
MEHrino’s MEHn | Current 3–1 | Projected 8–5 | 83%
Marino has been the surprise team this year with a solid 3–1 start. Consistently hitting 150–160 points each week won’t beat a few teams, but it will probably beat most and will probably see him make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Mealey’s Taco-ver | Current 2–2 | Projected 7–6 | 73%
Troy was my pick for “playoff quality team most likely to miss the playoffs”, and he should be counting his lucky chickens this is one of the most cut-and-dry playoff races we’ve ever seen in the league. A 7–6 record would be cutting in close in the past to make the playoffs, but this year it might be enough as the field gets awfully shallow from here on out.
The Kareem Cheeses| Current 1–3 | Projected 5–8 | 22%
Head had a start much hotter than his 1–3 record would project, and I think he should be able to turn his season around and see more wins in the near future. Unfortunately 1–3 is a deep hole to dig yourself out of, and 2017 isn’t looking great for his first shot at a playoff appearance.
Not Today Satan | Current 2–2 | Projected 5–8 | 18%
Billy’s team is trending up, but he still has an awful schedule problem looming with matches against all 6 of the projected playoff teams coming up.
VIVA LA FRANCE| Current 1–3 | Projected 4–9 | 3%
Subject to change without notice should anymore players be injured
Hooked on a Thielen| Current 1–3 | Projected 4–9 | 3%
Welcome to Club Reality, amigo. It’s a bitch.
Dalvin and the Chipmunks | Current 1–3 | Projected 3–10 | 1%
Losing Cook and Henry not taking over the job as soon as people suspected is going to make the rest of 2017 rough.
Mike and Roy’s Dynasty | Current 1–3 | Projected 3–10 | 0%
3 wins is generous, but I’m a generous guy.
