Heinbail Dynasty League Season 3, Week 1 — Getting Warmed Up
We’re only days away from the official kickoff of the 3rd season of the Heinbail Dynasty League. After another active offseason, I’m sure I’m not alone in being ready to get things started up again. For many of the Eagles fans, their fantasy teams may end up being the most exciting teams to watch this season.
As has become tradition, each team is set to begin their season with 3 straight division games in a row. For some, this means a few weeks of easy match ups before venturing out into the inter-divisional wilderness. For others, it’s 3 weeks of hell that they’ll be praying to scrape a win from. Either way these games are important.
A few teams look to have solid shots at playoff berths this year, as another 50+ trades have seen rosters change pretty drastically. However, as we’ve seen in the past, there is too much luck involved in fantasy football, and so the only absolute truth is anything can and will happen.
And so, let’s get the season started with the match up previews. Remember, this year the weekly Pick ’Em is not straight up — you have to pick against the spreads that will be set here.
Nick’s Picks — Week 1
Bill Cosby’s Sleepers (0–0) vs Jordan Cameron Jordan (0–0)
ESPN Line: Bill Cosby’s Sleepers -52.3
HDL Line: Bill Cosby’s Sleepers -47.85
Keys to the game: How hard Martino can pray
Overview: The beginning of the season is going to be interesting for Martino. After spending two years as a playoff contender, he has by far the most difficult schedule with a roster that has fallen off pretty drastically. I think it’s pretty obvious who is going to win here, but the question really is whether Martino makes moves to help make himself more competitive in the most difficult division in the league. Falcone and Black don’t have a crazy good weekend, but end up winning it 174–126.
Cris Carter’s Fall Guys (0–0) vs Bill Clinton’s Balloons(0–0)
ESPN Line: Bill Clinton’s Balloons -59.4
HDL Line: Bill Clinton’s Balloons -55.55
Keys to the game: Telvin Smith gets 100 tackles, Malcolm Jenkins 15 INTs
Overview: I don’t think there are any misconceptions about what Head is doing. He is beginning a rebuild, and has made some solid moves to put a lot of young guys on his roster. The problem is, rookies rarely make meaningful fantasy impacts (in 2015 there were 3 fantasy-relevant 1st round rookie picks), and so 2016 is going to be more a time to watch his guys develop than watch his team…well, win.
That being said, crazier things have happened, and his roster is setting up to be a surprise out of the gate again — Blount could fall into the end zone 3 times, plenty of dump offs to Sproles, Philip Rivers has 2,000 kids to feed, his IDP is very solid and has a ridiculous ceiling…
But what will probably happen is Hallahan and Scott will win 168–113.
Jon Dorenbos’ Magic Show (0–0) vs Hogan’s Heroes (0–0)
ESPN Line: Jon Dorenbos’ Magic Show -11.2
HDL Line: Jon Dorenbos’ Magic Show -14.55
Keys to the game:
- 2 of Sarlo/Hark’s runningbacks will score more than 10 points…can they figure out which ones?
- How good will Corey Coleman be out of the gate?
- Can Dak Prescott keep up his preseason performance and feed Dez Bryant points?
Overview: This is a tough match to predict because there are so many question marks on both teams. If Arian Foster comes out with a heavy workload like it’s looking he could, this prediction could easily swing, however until I see it I can’t give him more than a relatively pedestrian 9 points; Sarlo and Hark win it 172–158.
Scott Sterling’s Face (0–0) vs MathewsMarcus LukeJohn (0–0)
ESPN Line: Scott Sterling’s Face -19.5
HDL Line: Scott Sterling’s Face -60.35
Keys to the game:
- Calhoun’s cake match ups
- Galante’s not-so-cake match ups
- Big Ben 50+ points?
Overview: I know what you’re thinking. “How he hell can he set the spread at 60 points? ESPN has the match as being close!” The immediate response is, “screw you guy, if you want to set spreads then you do this.” The more nuanced response is, I think a lot of Calhoun’s players have the potential to have yuge games this week. And the yugest of them all could be Big Ben, who could seriously score over 50 points against Washington.
Think about it The game is set up for a big day for Big Ben. Both teams have weak defenses and big offenses, so I don’t think 5 TDs is out of the question.
Galante has a respectable week, but isn’t a match for Calhoun this time who wins it 224–164. Go ahead, pick against me. I dare you.
Old McDonald’s Farm (0–0) vs Fleeced or Famine (0–0)
ESPN Line: Fleeced or Famine -6.1
HDL Line: Fleeced or Famine -36.05
Keys to the game:
- Mealey’s team better than he thinks
- Brett’s team worse than he thinks
Overview: OK, so a few things before Brett accuses me of being biased against his team. First, I’ve been on the record as saying Mealey’s team will be better than everyone expected this year. But this isn’t one of those “super unexpected high score” weeks.
Second, Brett’s team is not as bad as week 1 will make it look. I just don’t expect much from his players early on.
I just think Mealey will do slightly better than ESPN projects this week, and Brett will do slightly worse. Mealey wins it 168–132.
Game of the Week — Suits vs Skins
Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! (0–0) vs Specter Ross LITT (0–0)
ESPN Line: Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! -9.8
HDL Line: Uhh WATT! YEEAAHH! -10.65
QB: Specter — Luck should bounce back in a big way
RB: Watt — This will be interesting. If Gordon still sucks, Woodhead will benefit. If not, Woodhead will lose touches.
WR: Watt — AB is the best WR, but Julio isn’t too far off, and Hilton and Marshall are better than Baldwin and Sanders.
TE: Watt — Gronk want touchdown
FLEX: Watt — I honestly don’t think anyone knows what to expect from an aging Fitz and a Wentz-fed Matthews, but what we do know is its probably better than an inefficient RB and Steve Smith.
IDP: Draw — I originally had this as Specter, but honestly I think both units are very strong.
On paper, Cleve seems to have the better team. However both teams struggle with depth, and both are shaky at FLEX, which means this match could go either way.
This is a huge game for both teams. Its a tough division and every win is going to matter in a big way trying to make the playoffs, especially wins against each other. Not only do I think this could be the closest game this week, it could end up having the most implications since both teams should be right in the fight for the division and/or wild card spots.
I’m expecting Luck to have a big game, which should be great for the Altbaums who watched him struggle all last year. Unfortunately, Cleve stands to be a mutual beneficiary of Luck with Hilton, so a lot of those points could end up being cancelled out. That was a big factor when comparing these teams.
Baldwin and Sanders fall woefully short compared to Marshall and Hilton — however, Antonio Brown against a terrible Washington secondary could easily score three touchdowns and could close the point gap between the other WRs.
This should be a close game. Both teams will show they have serious contenders this year. But Cleve wins it 181–171.
