Heinbail Dynasty League Season 3, Week 3— Too Early to be Too Late?

Lot’s of injuries last week could make Week 3 very interesting. Some teams benefited, same teams were handicapped, but almost every one was affected in some way that could shake things up going into our final divisional matches for the next 10 weeks.

Nick’s Picks — Week 3

Bill Cosby’s Sleepers (1–1) vs Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! (1–1)

ESPN Line: Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! -3.5

FantasyPros Line: Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! -10

HDL Line: Bill Cosby’s Sleepers -5.75

Keys to the game:

  • Who has the injury bug bitten more?
  • Gurley and Lacy finally have good matchups
  • Is Marshall 100%?

Overview: Generally my lines tend to go pretty along ESPN and FantasyPros, if varying a bit by the actual numbers. This one I’m thinking they’re both off, and I think Falcone and Chris have an advantage here. It should be a close and pretty high scoring match, but at the end of the day I think injuries to Gronk, Martin, Woodhead, Ivory, and Marshall might be too much for Cleve to overcome.

Then again both teams are starting crappy RBs in Crowell and West, so who knows. Falcone/Black win 178–171.

Schweddy Rawls (0–2) vs MathewsMarcus LukeJohn (1–1)

ESPN Line: MathewsMarcus LukeJohn -30

FantasyPros Line: MathewsMarcus LukeJohn -32

HDL Line: MathewsMarcus LukeJohn -50.05

Keys to the game:

  • Early Christmas miracles

Overview: There isn’t too much to say here. Brett’s team isn’t very good, and Galante’s team has at least one more week of being a top scoring team before they fall back to reality when Bell returns. This win will set him up nicely for his upcoming matches when he will be missing Williams badly.

Galante wins 180–130.

Fleeced or Famine (1–1) vs Scott Sterling’s Face (2–0)

ESPN Line: Scott Sterling’s Face -15.2

FantasyPros Line: Scott Sterling’s Face -21

HDL Line: Scott Sterling’s Face -23.05

Keys to the game:

  • Mealey likely only a few pieces from being competitive here
  • Could be a lot closer with likely over projections for Freeman and Odell

Overview: This game is so close to being close. I think Calhoun’s team still looks solid on paper, but some of his match ups and the upside of Mealey means this is the most likely Calhoun is to lose since the start of this season.

The reality is it still isn’t actually close, and even with over projections at a few spots it isn’t likely all of those guys under-perform again. Calhoun wins with the high score, 198–165.

Jordan Cam eron Jordan (0–2) vs Specter Ross LITT (2–0)

ESPN Line: Specter Ross LITT -28.1

FantasyPros Line: Specter Ross LITT -28

HDL Line: Specter Ross LITT -32.65

Keys to the game:

  • Can Drew Brees score 200 points in one game?

Overview: The Altbaums have to feel pretty good right now. They made it through the hard part of their schedule and look to be the 3–0 team coming out of their division. All they have left standing Martino, and his team doesn’t have nearly the upside to have much of a chance this week.

And it’s a good thing too, because honestly I still don’t think the Altbaums have a team that can consistently win, and don’t think they’re likely to put up a week 1 score this week. So if they can start off 3–0 their playoff chances are very good.

Altbaums win 167–134.

Hogan’s Heroes (1–1) vs Cris Carter’s Fall Guys (1–1)

ESPN Line: Hogan’s Heroes -9.3

FantasyPros Line: Hogan’s Heroes -15

HDL Line: Hogan’s Heroes -13.65

Keys to the game:

  • How many 100+ yard games can Head’s rookies string in a row?
  • Eagles and Patriots both have rough match ups that could limit Bartell’s upside
  • Ask me if Bartell would have better RBs than Marino at this point in the season and I’d laugh at you

Overview: I think this is going to be a very interesting game to watch. Both teams already have their Sarlo bump, and either team coming out of the division 2–1 is something I definitely didn’t expect. Marino is really hurt by injuries, and unlike other teams Bartell has managed to create a roster of guys with consistent usage and unexpected upside. Another 200+ point performance isn’t likely to happen this week with a BBQ sandwich throwing to Amendola and much tougher matchups for his rookies, but keep an eye on Rivers and Sproles who could be in line for big games.

Marino wins 170-157.

Game of the Week — Grasping for Air

Bill Clinton’s Balloons (2–0) vs Jon Dorenbos’ Magic Show (0–2)

ESPN Line: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

FantasyPros Line: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

HDL Line: Bill Clinton’s Balloons -11.55

Keys to the game:

  • Can Sarlo and Harks WRs show up like last week?
  • Whose handcuff-become-starter RB will have the bigger game?
  • Both teams will be stealing points from each other’s QBs

QB: Clinton — Rodgers hasn’t looked good, but he’s still better than Tannehill, and he’s in Detroit.

RB: Dorenbos — Surpringly and unconvincingly have to go with this unit. David Johnson is far and away the best RB, but Gore could have a big game in SD and Sims has been a solid back before Martin went down.

WR: Draw — Sarlo and Hark have the greater upside, Hallahan and Lederer have the higher floor.

TE: Draw — A total toss up that is going to depend heavily on however much their mid-tier TEs are used this week.

FLEX: Clinton — The WRs in their FLEX have simply been more consistent than anything Dorenbos will put in their

IDP: Clinton — Almost across the board.

This week’s MoTW is probably more so the implications of a third loss in a row for Sarlo and Hark instead of the high scoring, close duel that the last 2 have been.

Not to say this doesn’t have the opportunity to be a high scoring affair — a combination of match ups, fortunate injuries, and players finally breaking out means this is a match Sarlo and Hark could absolutely win. Their team just hasn’t had anywhere near the consistency for a betting man to really put much faith in them.

A loss here wouldn’t mean the absolute end of the season, but a team has not lost the first 3 matches in a row and ever gone on to make the playoffs in this league. It wouldn’t be good.

Another big factor will be whether Sarlo and Hark can get their points off their bench, which will not be easy with FLEX decisions between potentially high scoring players like Watkins, Parker, and Bernard to choose from. On the flip side, they’re also potential goose eggers.

Clinton wins 170–159, but I sure hope I’m wrong.