Heinbail Dynasty League Season 3, Week 6— Football Sucks

Missed Week 5, back into it for Week 6.

Nick’s Picks

Schweddy Rawls (3–2) vs Bill Cosby’s Sleepers (3–2)

ESPN Line: -27.8 Cosby

FPros Line: -22 Cosby

HDL Line: -18.05 Cosby

Keys to the Game:

  • Cosby forced to start a few players they can’t be thrilled about
  • :mask:

It’s totally possible that Brett will continue to average over 30 points less against per week long enough to squeak into the playoffs. But probably not this week. Cosby wins 157–139

Jon Dorenbos’ Magic Show (0–5) vs MathewsMarcus LukeJohn (2–3)

ESPN Line: -17 Mathews

FPros Line: -20 Mathews

HDL Line: -14.05 Mathews

Keys to the Game:

  • Strong match ups for Mathews makes an upset unlikely
  • Injured players mean more volatility for Dorenbos’ players

Its hard to say this early how close this game will be. If Dez, Cobb, Stewart, are all healthy, it could be very close. If Dez, Cobb, and Stewart play but are limited, it could be another sub-100 score. Good luck picking this one. Mathews wins 161–147.

Jordan Cam eron Jordan (0–5) vs Fleeced or Famine (3–2)

ESPN Line: -36 Fleeced

FPros Line: -38 Fleeced

HDL Line: -28.25 Fleeced

Keys to the Game:

  • Mealey lucky to be pulling into the Free Win Express in a very tight division
  • Double digit performances not likely for any players on Jordan outside of Wentz, Yeldon, and Benjamin

After a solid Week 1 and a decent Week 2, it’s been pretty downhill for Martino as his team has failed to eclipse 150 points since. Mealey’s team isn’t exactly setting any points records themselves, but he also has only scored less than 150 once this entire season, so even with a team not looking like it will make the playoffs, they should be safe here. Fleeced wins 153–125.

Specter Ross LITT (3–2) vs The Mr. Peanuts (3–2)

ESPN Line: -48.3 Specter

FPros Line: -45 Specter

HDL Line: -10.55 Specter

Keys to the Game:

  • Gross over projections could lead to false sense of security for Abaums
  • ESPN can’t seem to pin Head’s team’s projections

This is an interesting match. If you look at ESPN or FantasyPros, this match seems like it will be completely one sided. I’m not buying it, and here’s why.

First, looking at where ESPN is getting Abaum’s projection of 185 points, there are some in there that are questionable at best. 15 points for Forte who hasn’t eclipsed 10 in 3 weeks and has been losing touches to Powell, against a still stout Cardinals defense? 15 points for Melvin Gordon against Denver? 12 points for Jamaal Charles in his first game back? 12 points for Pryor who, as the only receiver on that team, isn’t likely to get the Parrish Cox love? I don’t see it.

On the flip side you have Head’s team averaging 174 ppg with weekly projections almost 20 points less than that; Cole Beasely with another Dez-less game; Fuller against Indy with a passing offense they are desperate to get working; Sproles has been and will continue to be the feature player in Philly. There is a lot of deceptively juicy opportunity here. Keep your eyes open for an upset, but to avoid hurting feelings and setting off another revenge tour (since this one seems to be cooling off) I’ll still call it Specter 167–157.

Hogan’s Heroes (2–3) vs Scott Sterling’s Face (4–1)

ESPN Line: -33.9 Sterling

FPros Line: -26 Sterling

HDL Line: -23.55 Sterling

Keys to the Game:

  • Calhoun starting his waiver gem in an attempt to look smart in a game he sees as safe could backfire with Royal back
  • Marino needs players like Foster and Hurns to return to form to stand a chance
  • Will Lamar Miller actually score a touchdown??

This game is a long shot for Marino, but as his score last week shows, he’s not out of it. His players are volatile which means they could put up over 200 points…but also means they can put up 130. I don’t love relying on players with questionable usage and outlooks like Foster to win, but who knows.

And if Calhoun keeps Meredith in the line up and loses because of it, well gosh darn that would just be pretty swell too. Sterling wins 197–175

Match of the Week

Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! (2–3) vs Bill Clinton’s Balloons (5–0)

HDL Line: -17.75 Clinton

QB: Clinton — Aaron Rodgers is continuing to struggle, but thats only relative to Aaron Rodgers. He should be fine compared to whoever Cleve chooses.

RB: Clinton — Volatility at WR is offset by weekly guaranteed 20+ performances by both RBs

WR: Draw —I was leaning towards Clinton here too, but Cleve has some players who I think will continue to show up and keep them close.

TE: Watt — Gronk gonna Gronk, Witten gonna Witten.

FLEX: Watt — Marshall with no Decker and Hilton are stronger than anyone on Miami and probably Snead or Enuwa.

IDP: Draw — Both have solid IDP units

This feels like an unfortunate train to run into for Cleve who is trying to claw his way back from a slow start. Charles Sims going down means Doug Martin is likely to see a huge jump in usage when he returns, and he could end up wishing that was this week since he’s going to need every point he can get.

At the end of the day, just based on rosters, I’d end up giving it to Clinton anyway, but Cooper, Thomas, Maclin, and Rodgers all have solid match ups which could end up offsetting what little advantage Cleve might have there.

Should be a high scoring match, Clinton wins 188–171.