Rapid Odds! 11/15/2016
You’d think I’d learn by now.
Cleve beating Mealey shakes things up a bit, though not too drastically since it was the projection from the start. Here is where teams actually stand after Week 10.
Bill Clinton’s Balloons — 100%
Uhhh WATT! YEEAAHH! — 98.04%
A win last night has all but locked up the playoffs for Cleve — the upcoming win against Martino should secure his 8 wins. The real fight will be for a bye, which he has about a 40% chance of getting.
Bill Cosby’s Sleepers — 97.32%
I said last time Cleve losing increased their odds, but apparently Cleve winning almost guaranteed the playoffs. This is likely because a Mealey win puts more teams in bubble territory to compete for a spot, whereas now Falcone is likely to score more than enough to be out of the bubble.
Specter Ross LITT — 87.44%
Cleve winning doesn’t really affect the Altbaums too much. They’re going to have to beat one of Falcone or Cleve regardless to lock up their spot, and they would have to sweep to win the division. They should be able to pull out the 5 seed.
Scott Sterling’s Face — 78.76%
Surprisingly Mealey losing didn’t help that much. While his chances of winning his division and getting a better seeding have shot up, even if he doesn’t he should be able to get past the bubble.
Fleeced or Famine — 60.24%
Ouch. This loss has devastated his playoff odds, and while he is still in good position in the race, he now risks being subject to the crazy advantage system that determines which bubble team gets in. With no guaranteed wins in is final 3 matches, there is a serious chance Mealey could end up on the outside looking in.
Schweddy Rawls — 55.04%
Brett’s odds have gone up only slightly, however his fate is now firmly in his own hands. 2 wins will lock it up.
The Mr. Peanuts — 22.44%
Head benefited a bit from Mealey losing, but only slightly. It keeps him within bubble range, but he has some serious challenges having lost to bubble teams this year. I’d count him out unless he can win 2 of the final 3.
Hogan’s Heroes — 0.16%
I haven’t even been running the numbers for non-playoff contending teams, but I decided to stick Marino’s team in based on a hunch. Apparently there is a ultra-slim chance he could actually make the playoffs.
I’m not exactly sure what the scenario would be that would allow this, but I assume it would involve a number of extremely unlikely things like his team winning out, the Altbaums losing out, and Brett, Mealey, or Calhoun losing out. So don’t hold your breath.